After a whirlwind tenth week, we have a ton of stuff to talk about folks, so let's dive right into the next episode of Third and Long. Listen here or on iTunes!
Sunday, November 16, 2014
Saturday, November 8, 2014
Tuesday, November 4, 2014
NHL Stock Up/Stock Down: The First 8th of the Season!
Oh hi there.
So yeah, hockey everybody. This is the blog that goes with the podcast that we’ve yet to do yet this season. Jobs people. Jobs. Anyway, we’re just about 1/8 into the 2014-15 season so everything I’m about to write about could be irrelevant shortly. Here’s a short list of what’s good and not so good so far.
So yeah, hockey everybody. This is the blog that goes with the podcast that we’ve yet to do yet this season. Jobs people. Jobs. Anyway, we’re just about 1/8 into the 2014-15 season so everything I’m about to write about could be irrelevant shortly. Here’s a short list of what’s good and not so good so far.
Stock Up: Pretty Ricky
Monday, November 3, 2014
Third and Long: The Midseason Fantasy Rundown
We've hit the midpoint, boys and girls, so we figured it's only appropriate to commemorate it with a special edition episode! Third and Long's hosts delve into the current fantasy football scoring leaders and give our input on trends, studs/duds, and potential big finishes. Listen here or on iTunes!
Saturday, October 25, 2014
Third and Long: The JETS, the MIKE, and the Week 7 Recap
We're joined by guest host and New York Jets columnist Jordan Pensabene (@jpens4real21) in our recap of a particularly hectic week of football, attacking the Percy Harvin trade, team trends, and the playoff picture very vaguely taking shape. Listen here or on iTunes!
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| #struggleface |
Friday, October 24, 2014
Barclays Premier League Week 9 Predictions
Now that I'm over my (non-Ebola) sickness, it's time for another week of Premier League predictions! My mediocre record of 9-9-2 is sure to improve after this week and maybe I'll actually get a win with my Bet of the Week pick.
UPDATE MON 7:15 PM EST
UPDATE MON 7:15 PM EST
Week 9 Record: 7-3-0 (3 Exact Wins)
Bet of the Week Record: 0-1-0
Season Record: 16-12-2
Season Bet of the Week Record: 0-2-1
West Ham vs. Manchester City
Prediction: 1-3
Analysis: Despite West Ham sitting in 4th place in the table, despite West Ham being at home, despite West Ham's 3-1 over Burnley and 2-0 win over QPR, I just don't think they have a chance against Man City. Man City is too powerful of a team for anyone in the league to compete against them besides Chelsea (And even Chelsea only came away with a draw against them). So yes, I think Man City has no problem winning this game and I'm going with a 3-1 win and taking Man City -1.
Pick: Manchester City -1; -119
Final Outcome: 2-1. LOSS.
Bet of the Week Record: 0-1-0
Season Record: 16-12-2
Season Bet of the Week Record: 0-2-1
West Ham vs. Manchester City
Prediction: 1-3
Analysis: Despite West Ham sitting in 4th place in the table, despite West Ham being at home, despite West Ham's 3-1 over Burnley and 2-0 win over QPR, I just don't think they have a chance against Man City. Man City is too powerful of a team for anyone in the league to compete against them besides Chelsea (And even Chelsea only came away with a draw against them). So yes, I think Man City has no problem winning this game and I'm going with a 3-1 win and taking Man City -1.
Pick: Manchester City -1; -119
Final Outcome: 2-1. LOSS.
Tuesday, October 21, 2014
Week 7 Fantasy Report: Ghosts of Football Yet to Come
Relatively speaking, this week sputtered by with little to-do. A few games went down to the wire and some interesting upsets caused mild tremors, but nothing registered much more than a burp on the figurative Richter scale. What we did see, over all else, was the growing emergence of young players in their respective positions. As is customary during midseason, rookies began hitting their strides, teams loosened the ropes on their young projects, and we as fans began to notice a sense of evolution around the league. Hence, this week I'd like to focus primarily on some of the more impressive youngsters, of course touching upon their fantasy forecasts in both re-draft and a few dynasty tidbits. Hope you all enjoy this seventh installment of my fake football stock report.
Saturday, October 18, 2014
Third and Long: Rivalries and the Week 5/6 Recap
We're back after a one-week hiatus (our bye week!) to take on some big rumblings around the league. Listen here or on iTunes! As a postscript, since I (Lucio) talk so much about the Browns' zone-blocking scheme, here's a fantastic article from SB Nation that breaks it all down: http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2014/10/17/6993241/cleveland-browns-bryan-hoyer-offense
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Wednesday, October 15, 2014
Week 6 Fantasy Report: The Bug is Back
In hindsight, we as fantasy GMs have been spoiled for the past handful of weeks. Very few roster-crumbling injuries cropped up since the bloodshed of week two, and we may have become complacent in their absence. Unfortunately, it seems the injury bug has returned to feast anew. Cringe-worthy blows to many players over the weekend served as a sobering reminder to the sports world that the men who walk out of that tunnel every week do so in light of the astronomical risks and stress their bodies must endure. Their livelihood hangs from delicate, unseeable threads over the stadiums in which these gladiatorial contests play out. In light of this crash back to earth, I've decided to cover a few of the most impactful injuries that have stricken teams thus far and their potential implications. Expect a return to the normal format next week (as an aside, deep-leaguers should pick up CJ Anderson and Joseph Randle, just saying).
Friday, October 10, 2014
Thursday, October 9, 2014
Tuesday, October 7, 2014
Week 5 Fantasy Report: Brady Got Back
Sunday, October 5, 2014
Friday, October 3, 2014
Barclays Premier League Week 7 Predictions
After changing the format at which I grade my predictions, I'm now coming off a pretty good record from Week 6. I even had 2 exact score predictions! But this week I'm looking to do even better than 5-3-2. My goal is at least 6-2-2. Hopefully my bet of the week will be a win this week as well, since Chelsea ended up winning only 3-0 and my pick of over 3 was only a push. As usual, the bet of the week will be in bold, red font.
UPDATE: SUNDAY 8:40 PM EST
UPDATE: SUNDAY 8:40 PM EST
Week 7 Record: 4-6-0
Bet of the Week Record: 0-1-0
Season Record: 9-9-2
Season Bet of the Week Record: 0-1-1
Sunderland vs. Stoke City
Prediction: 1-1
Analysis: Sunderland ended up playing in the boring game of the week last week, ending with a 0-0 draw against Swansea City. It's a little hard to tell if Sunderland played better than they have been or Swansea is still falling apart after being the early surprise of the season. On the other hand, Stoke did exactly what I was expecting (literally) and came away with a 1-0 win against Newcastle last week. You won't see Stoke involved in too many high scoring match-ups this season so I'm going to go with a 1-1, having Sunderland squeak away with another much needed point.
Pick: Stoke pk, +1/2; -132
Final Outcome: 3-1. LOSS.
Bet of the Week Record: 0-1-0
Season Record: 9-9-2
Season Bet of the Week Record: 0-1-1
Sunderland vs. Stoke City
Prediction: 1-1
Analysis: Sunderland ended up playing in the boring game of the week last week, ending with a 0-0 draw against Swansea City. It's a little hard to tell if Sunderland played better than they have been or Swansea is still falling apart after being the early surprise of the season. On the other hand, Stoke did exactly what I was expecting (literally) and came away with a 1-0 win against Newcastle last week. You won't see Stoke involved in too many high scoring match-ups this season so I'm going to go with a 1-1, having Sunderland squeak away with another much needed point.
Pick: Stoke pk, +1/2; -132
Final Outcome: 3-1. LOSS.
Wednesday, October 1, 2014
Tuesday, September 30, 2014
The Bye Week Blues, Volume II
Phew, we made it through the first wave, boys and girls. Thankfully for us fantasy GMs, week four looks to have been one of the worst byes this season, potentially only topped by week nine (Atlanta, Tennessee, Buffalo, and most of the NFC North will be off that week ... it gives me chills). Hence, while we aren't out of the woods just yet, the underbrush has cleared for the time being. Last week, we clobbered some home runs, but piddled in a few sad little sac-bunts too. Eli, Teddy, and Tannehill all ruined the curve for other quarterbacks; Gerhart, Asiata, and Walker found the end zone; and Keenan and Khiry piled on over 200 combined yards. Unfortunately, Steven Jackson was robbed at the goal line, Cecil Shorts' paper-mache hamstring sidelined once again, and Garrett Graham had the usage but also the dropsies. A respectable but cautious pat on the back to myself and Alex for our record last week. But this isn't about fantasy-prediction autofellatio, it's about helping you plug the holes in your team ship so it doesn't go Titanic on you. Hence, we soldier on through volume two of the Bye Week Blues.
Monday, September 29, 2014
Week 4 Fantasy Report: Time Keeps On Slippin'
As I drove to the radio station I work for over the weekend, watching trees dot the skyline, it dawned to me that October has nearly arrived; the realization gave me pause. The seasons fly by every year, almost faster than the previous one, and this ride around is no different. Our long-form game of numbers and balls shaped like an egg has already hit its quarter-point, with four tireless weeks of injury checking, feed-watching, and losing sleep over minute roster changes behind us. We must relish the time we are given, as we enter what I consider the greatest time of year. And between this and other hobbies, work, school, and life's various toils, we should all set aside a bit of the day to just sit and watch the leaves fall.
Alright, now that I'm done gazing into my own navel, we can begin. First, to touch on some of last week's notes (make sure to read Alex's part 2/rebuttal piece to get the whole picture from last week)...
Alright, now that I'm done gazing into my own navel, we can begin. First, to touch on some of last week's notes (make sure to read Alex's part 2/rebuttal piece to get the whole picture from last week)...
Friday, September 26, 2014
Barclays Premier League Week 6 Predictions
This is the week I improve my record! Okay, probably not but there's always hope and you don't want to miss out on when I have a winning record for the week. Despite my 3-7 record, I actually didn't do too bad last time. For example, technically this was considered a loss, but I guessed a 3-2 Man City victory over Arsenal and it ended up being 2-2. Once again my favorite pick of the week will be in bold red letters.
MONDAY 8:00 PM EST UPDATE
My season record will be reseting due to a format change. The record will now be based on my betting picks instead of my game predictions.
MONDAY 8:00 PM EST UPDATE
My season record will be reseting due to a format change. The record will now be based on my betting picks instead of my game predictions.
Week 6 Record: 5-3-2 (With 2 Exact Score Predictions!)
Season Record: 5-3-2
Bet of the Week Record: 0-0-1
Liverpool vs. Everton
Prediction: 1-2
Analysis: I've got to go for the upset in the latest Merseyside Derby. Both teams are coming off bad losses to teams they should've beat so no one has the momentum coming into this game. Yes, Liverpool is at home. Yes, Liverpool has been somewhat better than Everton this season. But Everton usually shows up in games where they're expecting a tough matchup. Watch for much better goalkeeping by the toffees in this game. Tim Howard will come up big this week.
Pick: Everton +1/2; -104
Final Outcome: 1-1. WIN.
Season Record: 5-3-2
Bet of the Week Record: 0-0-1
Liverpool vs. Everton
Prediction: 1-2
Analysis: I've got to go for the upset in the latest Merseyside Derby. Both teams are coming off bad losses to teams they should've beat so no one has the momentum coming into this game. Yes, Liverpool is at home. Yes, Liverpool has been somewhat better than Everton this season. But Everton usually shows up in games where they're expecting a tough matchup. Watch for much better goalkeeping by the toffees in this game. Tim Howard will come up big this week.
Pick: Everton +1/2; -104
Final Outcome: 1-1. WIN.
Week 3 Fantasy Report: Round 2
You can find my take here on this week's Third and Long Fantasy Report.
Week 3 Fantasy Report: Round 1 Recap
A few players I have to address after they were included in the Week 3 Fantasy Report by Lucio:
Toby Gerhart: I disagree with Lucio on Toby Gerhart getting any better with BLAKE BORTLES BLAKE BORTLES BLAKE BORTLES as the QB. Not this season. Yes, Toby may have more room to run now, but he's still the same player that carried the dubious title of "most overhyped" coming into this season. Like Lucio said, Toby Gerhart is a Tonka Truck that's slower than I am. He's useless.
Week 3 Fantasy Report: Round 1 Recap
A few players I have to address after they were included in the Week 3 Fantasy Report by Lucio:
Toby Gerhart: I disagree with Lucio on Toby Gerhart getting any better with BLAKE BORTLES BLAKE BORTLES BLAKE BORTLES as the QB. Not this season. Yes, Toby may have more room to run now, but he's still the same player that carried the dubious title of "most overhyped" coming into this season. Like Lucio said, Toby Gerhart is a Tonka Truck that's slower than I am. He's useless.
Thursday, September 25, 2014
Week 3 Fantasy Report: The Bye Weeks Are Coming, The Bye Weeks Are Coming
We're on the precipice, folks: the time of year that separates fantasy boys and girls from hulking muscly beasts of fake majesty. Bye weeks add a major layer of skill to roster construction and the waiver game, allowing the cream to separate from the chaff. I've penned a more extensive look at this week's bye replacements, which you can find below this article. For now, let's jump back into the usual routine and look at some notable fantasy trends from week three.
Wednesday, September 24, 2014
The Bye Week Blues
Week four is upon us, the quarter-point of our ride through the season, and you're sitting pretty. Solid roster, winning record, able to navigate the injury carnage up to now without a scratch. However, the true test of fantasy skill is just beginning. The bye weeks approach, threatening all our painstakingly-crafted rosters and shiny division standings. I've decided to throw in a few of my opinions on what players can best hold the line for your team, based on matchups, circumstances, and a handful of pure, dumb luck. So, boys and girls, I hope you enjoy this first installment of the Bye Week Blues.
Monday, September 15, 2014
Week 2 Fantasy Report: Oh, The Humanity!
The second week of our favorite sport began on the heels of an absolutely dire period of days in the league. The Ray Rice saga had hit full-throttle, the NFLPA continued to give wishy-washy reports on the approaching drug policy rehaul, and we learned that our beloved bionic man Adrian Peterson beats the daylight out of his toddler like a goddamn neanderthal. Commish and the PR department would have loved for the games to take the edge off and cool some heads in the midst of such tumult, but karma would have none of that; an egregious number of players suffered debilitating injuries, forcing medical reports to more closely resemble those of week twelve or so. Fantasy footballers must adapt and ride this wave as we would any other, though, and soldier on minus some of the premier players in the game.
Friday, September 12, 2014
Barclays Premier League Week 4 Predictions
Now that the international break (which is useless in my opinion since we just had the World Cup) is over I can dive into making some predictions for week 4. I'm also adding my favorite pick of the week into my weekly predictions now (Pick is written in red and bold). The analysis portion of these predictions will end up being relatively short due to the international break making me forget my instant reactions to week 3 and the fact that I'm running out of time to make these predictions. Hopefully I can improve on my 4-6 record from last week.
FINAL SCORES UPDATE
Week 3 Record: 4-6
Week 4 Record: 3-7
Season Record: 7-13
Arsenal vs. Manchester City
Prediction: 2-3
Analysis: I don't think anyone could have guessed Man City losing at the Etihad to Stoke. I think Man City will bounce back after the disappointing loss despite going to play against Arsenal at Emirates. Arsenal is also coming off a match where they struggled against Leicester and my gut was right about that game being more interesting than I predicted. This is an important game for both teams early in the season and in Man City's case, if they don't bounce back, Chelsea will quickly start running away with the league.
FINAL SCORES UPDATE
Week 3 Record: 4-6
Week 4 Record: 3-7
Season Record: 7-13
Arsenal vs. Manchester City
Prediction: 2-3
Analysis: I don't think anyone could have guessed Man City losing at the Etihad to Stoke. I think Man City will bounce back after the disappointing loss despite going to play against Arsenal at Emirates. Arsenal is also coming off a match where they struggled against Leicester and my gut was right about that game being more interesting than I predicted. This is an important game for both teams early in the season and in Man City's case, if they don't bounce back, Chelsea will quickly start running away with the league.
Thursday, September 11, 2014
Third and Long: Todd Bradley and Week 1 Reactions
A wild first week of gridiron is behind us, folks, and we have a bunch of crap to fling about it, between Tom Terrific being not-so-much, to the divisional turnover record the NFC East will inevitably break. Listen to the episode here, and be sure to follow the feed to stay up-to-date on all our podcasts and content!
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| Cry, Pagliacci, cry |
Tuesday, September 9, 2014
Week 1 Fantasy Report: Cordarelle Patterson Hates Me
Wrapped in the gorgeous weather and sweltering temperatures that blanketed the northeast U.S., I spent the weekend in Boston visiting some college friends, many of whom I compete with in fantasy leagues. At 1 PM on Sunday, as our ragtag group huddled around the brunch table, a few of us let out a collective, contented sigh: our rosters had locked, and the fantasy season had truly begun. I'm still shaking a bit from the high the season opener wrapped me in. Week one brought us a number of interesting storylines, ranging from the hilarious and exciting, to the abhorrent and despicable. Here are some of my takes from the first week of fantasy football.
Saturday, September 6, 2014
Friday, September 5, 2014
Thursday, September 4, 2014
2014 NFL Season Preview: From AJ McCarron to Ziggy Hood
Third and Long is back, baby, and so is the NFL! Join us as we take on each division in the league with our predictions and opinions on the best and the worst. Plus, a quick preview of week one and what to expect going forward. Listen here!
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| Do you even lift, bro? Use this handy flowchart to find out (click to view full size; Dom Mazzetti get at me) |
Wednesday, September 3, 2014
Tuesday, September 2, 2014
Final Preseason Sleepers and Busts: From Rip van Winkle to Ryan Leaf, Part 2
Only a few precious days stand between us and the most glorious time of year, folks. Until our rosters matter once again, and luck clutches our fates in its wiry talons. The time for vigilance is now; push those desperation trades, scour the wire for gems, and keep tweaking those rankings. In time for Thursday night's festivities, here's the other half of my last-minute sleepers and busts for the season.
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| Best game ever, by the way. Where's my HD remake, Nintendo? |
Sunday, August 31, 2014
Saturday, August 30, 2014
Final Preseason Sleepers and Busts: From Rip van Winkle to Ryan Leaf, Part 1
"ONLY SIX DAYS SIX HOURS AND EIGHTEEN MINUTES." - Alex Sappe, 08/29/14.
The preseason winds down once again, boys and girls, and our thirst for the gridiron has reached a fever pitch. Fake footballers are finalizing their rankings, scanning for the last bits of news to emerge from camp and roster cuts, and generally acting as degenerates so often tend to. More importantly, most depth chart battles have been won (or lost) by now, and the chances for injury are as low as they will be for the remainder of the season. For the final wave of drafters, arguably the most populated group of all, as well as GMs already playing the wire, I've decided to compile a few of my final sleepers and busts before the season gets underway. I wholly expect to burn this list by October, but for now, here's my opinion on who's hot and cold coming into the best time of the year.
The preseason winds down once again, boys and girls, and our thirst for the gridiron has reached a fever pitch. Fake footballers are finalizing their rankings, scanning for the last bits of news to emerge from camp and roster cuts, and generally acting as degenerates so often tend to. More importantly, most depth chart battles have been won (or lost) by now, and the chances for injury are as low as they will be for the remainder of the season. For the final wave of drafters, arguably the most populated group of all, as well as GMs already playing the wire, I've decided to compile a few of my final sleepers and busts before the season gets underway. I wholly expect to burn this list by October, but for now, here's my opinion on who's hot and cold coming into the best time of the year.
Friday, August 29, 2014
Barclays Premier League Week 3 Predictions
I already quickly mentioned some of my Week 3 predictions during the latest edition of the Footballistically Speaking Podcast, but I wanted to finalize them and get them down on the site with some really quick analysis included.
Burnley vs Man United
Prediction: 1-1
Analysis: What is going on with Manchester United? Only two premier league games and one horrendous Capital One Cup game and fans are already calling for David Moyes to come back (never thought we'd hear that). Angel Di Maria should end up being a fantastic transfer and Manchester United will finally have the player they've been missing since Ronaldo. It's no guarantee however that Di Maria makes his debut on Saturday and even if he does, the chemistry probably won't be there yet. Look for Manchester United to continue their struggles against a Burnley side still looking for their first point in the premier league since the 2009-2010 season.
Burnley vs Man United
Prediction: 1-1
Analysis: What is going on with Manchester United? Only two premier league games and one horrendous Capital One Cup game and fans are already calling for David Moyes to come back (never thought we'd hear that). Angel Di Maria should end up being a fantastic transfer and Manchester United will finally have the player they've been missing since Ronaldo. It's no guarantee however that Di Maria makes his debut on Saturday and even if he does, the chemistry probably won't be there yet. Look for Manchester United to continue their struggles against a Burnley side still looking for their first point in the premier league since the 2009-2010 season.
Thursday, August 28, 2014
Tuesday, August 26, 2014
Monday, August 25, 2014
Preseason Trends and Exhibition Injury Pointlessness
Preseason football, more than any other organized sport, exists mostly as a risk-riddled cash grab. I love watching young hopefuls climb their respective depth charts and analyzing backup players, which ostensibly gives the preseason its purpose; but when coaches claim to force their starters to play in exhibition games as punishment, there's something very wrong with the practice. A rash of serious injuries have taken down some of the more important players in the league to this point, affecting both reality and fantasy. Without firing off yet another rant against the waste of time we call the preseason, I'd like to go over some notable injuries and how they may affect building your roster.
Monday, August 18, 2014
Arbitrage All-Stars, Volume 3.5 (ypc)
The last ADP column left me yearning for more. Value-shopping is a habit and I may be addicted, a thought that occurs as I choke down day-old "bread" because it was on clearance. As I had mentioned, lots of aRBitrage plays (see what I did there?) exist this year, potentially more so than in recent years due to a fairly widespread changing of the guard sweeping league backfields. Wear on previously-gold RB1s has finally begun taking its toll, with more to inevitably follow as the season drags on. Getting in on the ground floor of some up-and-comers and knowing which older backs to take a chance on can help solidify an otherwise frenetic couple of roster slots. Before we dive into that, I also glanced over the time-sensitive nature of this series earlier; I'd like to revisit a few players and see how their ADP has changed...
Saturday, August 16, 2014
Footballistically Speaking Episode 1: ZAMORA!, Undisclosed Fees, and the League Preview
After much built-up hype, Footballistically Speaking is underway with our preview of the English Premier League! Be sure to subscribe to the podcast feed (in the sidebar to the right of this post) if you want to keep up with the series throughout the season. We'll be putting out new episodes every other week covering league happenings and game analysis. Stream or download the episode here!
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| Best. Goal. Ever. |
Thursday, August 14, 2014
Arbitrage All-Stars, Volume III
As the preseason enters its third week and drafts pick up steam, innumerable eyes are glued to the Twitterverse, slurping up data streams from all 32 camps. I count myself among the new-age zombies; I must have at least a dozen web alerts set for certain players and teams, to watch over depth chart battles and injury problems and generally exacerbate my anxiety. I'm already two drafts in, with one or two more on the way, and the fear of the unknown pulses through these already-built rosters. An aftereffect of the instant-news world we live in is higher volatility in the player market. Drafting in early August has its pros and cons, both relating to aforementioned camp storylines and potential injuries. It's a big reason why I hope discussing value in the drafts can help, by mitigating the high cost of camp stars that hold even more risk this early in the preseason. This time around, we'll take a look at running backs, inarguably the riskiest yet most important position on one's fake football roster (aside from the true cornerstone, kicker! Get at me, Legatron.) Likely a study in volatility in itself, this article and others like it are subject to change drastically depending on, again, camp and exhibition games. For now, though, I'd like to send up a few overdrafted backs over the next week or so and bestow upon you, the lucky reader, my wholly infallible opinions. If that sounds like a prime example of autofellatio, just know that my nickname in college was King Lucio and move on.
Monday, August 11, 2014
Arbitrage All-Stars, Volume II
After bathing in the colorful outer-space operatics of Guardians of the Galaxy twice this week, I was sorely tempted to title this next installment "Awesome Mix Volume 2." Alas, continuity binds me to convention. So, we return to the draft market study to run down another overvalued player, this time one from my favorite position, the tight end. Perfect specimens of the new, huge-athlete, high-flying NFL offense, tight ends command my attention on the field with circus catches and pancake blocks alike. Tight ends combine the best parts of watching receivers and linemen into one intimidatingly-massive hunk of meat, wrapped in a jersey like a neat little Christmas present.
Friday, August 8, 2014
Arbitrage All-Stars, Volume I
In perusing the completely unhealthy glut of fake football articles I read, I've come to understand the concept of arbitrage (credit to rotoviz.com for first planting the seed in my brain). In financing (i.e. the real world), arbitrage basically entails making a profit off of market inaccuracies. To us, though, arbitrage points out incongruence in player ADP (average draft position) and offers potential to capitalize on it. Since fantasy players are essentially volatile stocks, with their values rising and falling through the offseason, the concept translates well to draft strategies. In this series, I'll be taking a look at player stock I believe may be inflated, and offer some possible arbitrage plays at their positions; in other words, players who can offer the same or similar production for cheaper, thus allowing a drafter to make a profit. Most likely, these will follow standard scoring, but I'll be sure to include some fodder for other formats like PPR if this series goes on. Now, with all the boring introductory fluff out of the way, let's get to our first study.
Sunday, August 3, 2014
Point, Counterpoint: A Treatise on Zac Stacy
Point, Counterpoint: A Treatise on Zac Stacy
Settle in, boys and girls. I have a tale to spin for you, about a young man's battles against pirates, miners, Nordic savages, and terrifying birds of prey... better known as Zac Stacy's upcoming NFL season. If you've already read Alex's article on Stacy's bust potential (and if you haven't, click the link now you ridiculous person), you understand that we have discussed the fifth-round sophomore's fantasy value for a sizable chunk of our draft prep time this offseason. So, I felt obligated to poke in and champion my waiver-wire stud as a proper counterpoint. |
| Actual excerpt from my fantasy notes |
Saturday, August 2, 2014
Article 3: Stacy, Can't You See You're Just Not The One For Me (til later)
Article 3: Stacy, Can't You See You're Just Not The One For Me (til later)
Why will Zac Stacy be a fantasy bust this year? First off, let me thank Lucio for sparking this debate for my latest article. In our league, he's keeping Zac Stacy in the 12th round (obviously totally acceptable for a player who's ranked 13th overall in ESPN's top 300). But in this article I'll be pointing out why Stacy will be a bust for people taking him in the second (or third, or fourth, or fifth...) round. Fortunately for the timing of this article, Jim McCormick of ESPN.com published an article on why Stacy is worth a high pick. So I have a lot of material to disagree with.
Recently, I've gotten a lot of backlash from Lucio for ranking Stacy lower than a lot of other running backs including Ryan Mathews, Joique Bell, and Chris Johnson. But I have many reasons for this.
The main reason being that I don't trust any St. Louis Rams player to be on my fantasy team. There's not much to prove here, that offense just isn't that good. They were ranked 30th in terms of team offense in 2013, and that includes Zac Stacy's solid season. Even with additions like the number two overall pick of the 2014 draft, Greg Robinson, and Kenny Britt from the Titans, I just don't see this offense coming together this year.Another reason for the poor season I think the Rams will have is their schedule. Of course they're in the NFC West, so they have to play the Seahawks, 49ers, and Cardinals (all top 10 defenses). But their schedule is tougher this season compared to last. Last year the Rams got to play teams like the Cowboys (ha, Lucio), the Falcons (spoke too soon...), the Jaguars, the Texans, the Titans, and the Buccaneers. When we look at this season, of course they have some easy games against the Vikings, the Cowboys defense, and the Raiders, but overall the schedule is tougher. Games against the Eagles, the Broncos, the Chargers, the Redskins, the Chiefs, and possibly even the Giants (you're welcome Jesse) will only hurt the Rams. Zac Stacy's best games came when the Rams were either ahead or at least not far behind in games. I don't see the Rams doing that this year and traditionally, when behind in a game coaches don't like to rush the ball. That leads us to my next point.
Zac Stacy is definitely a volume-dependent running back (Yes Jim McCormick, that can be a bad thing). Stacy needs to get a lot of work in a game before he catches his stride and breaks out. When we look at Week 5 against the Jaguars last season, where Stacy was still splitting carries with Daryl Richardson and Benny Cunningham, he didn't break out until the fourth quarter (starting with his 11th carry). For another example, we can look at a monster game from Stacy. In my conversation with Lucio, Week 15 against New Orleans was brought up (23 carries, 133 yards, 1 touchdown). I'll still use this game as my example even though it was against New Orleans, one of the better teams in the league, so it somewhat goes against my argument. But these stats from Stacy came from a game where the Rams were winning 14-0 after the first quarter, 24-3 after halftime, and 27-3 after the third quarter. It's a classic example where the Rams ran the ball more after being ahead in the game and Stacy didn't break out until the Rams were already winning 17-0 in the second quarter. Once again, I don't see the Rams being able to duplicate those results on a consistent basis with a tougher schedule.
Another potential problem for Stacy's workload is the addition of Auburn running back, Tre Mason. Mason is faster than Stacy, was a higher draft pick than Stacy, and overall a more talented back than Stacy. Now I don't think Mason makes a huge impact in his first season so it sounds like it shouldn't be much of a problem. But I also don't see the Rams taking away carries from Cunningham, who the Rams love. So losing a couple touches to Mason only hurts a volume-dependent runner like Stacy. Especially a player like Stacy who doesn't get many looks in the passing game and misses a quarter or a half due to injury here and there.
So do I want Zac Stacy on my fantasy team? Unless I can get him in the sixth round or lower, I'm saying no. I wouldn't spend my second round pick on a player who averages less than 4.0 YPC, doesn't get many looks in the passing game, is volume-dependent, somewhat touchdown-dependent, has a tough schedule, and is in competition for getting carries with about three other running backs who the Rams also like. If I do draft Stacy, I can't confidently start him in 8 of the 16 games (possibly more). So after all the evidence, you tell me if Stacy is worth that 13th overall projection (18.6 ESPN ADP) ESPN gives him. It should be an easy answer.
About the Author
Alex Sappe
Co-creator and co-editor-in-chief of Three By Five Sports Network
Co-host of the Third and Long Podcast
Co-host of the Footballistically Speaking Podcast
Follow me on Twitter @AlexSappe
Thursday, July 31, 2014
Article 2: Packing it in?
Article 2: Packing it in?
There's more bad news for David Wilson. The New York Giants running back now may never play football again due to another neck injury, this time during training camp. After having a season ending injury, which originally was called spinal stenosis in 2013, Wilson was diagnosed with a "burner" on Tuesday, according to ESPN. The Giants have ruled him out for the rest of the team's practices as well as the first preseason game on Sunday. Now there are reports from NJ.com which say Wilson needs "a miracle" to play football again.Although Wilson is stating that this is somewhat a minor injury, it looks like doctors will be less optimistic. This is horrible news for the New York Giants who drafted the high upside Wilson with the 32nd pick of the 2012 draft. But fortunately for the team, if Wilson is ruled okay to return to play eventually, they have the roster to let him ease his way back in. Rashad Jennings, Andre Williams, Peyton Hillis, and Michael Cox are all capable of playing in Wilson's absence but obviously Wilson has the best potential of all of them to be the starting running back.
A few of our hosts (who are both Giants fans) at Three by Five Network had a conversation about this on twitter yesterday:
I can see both perspectives in this case. Wilson was not having the best year before his injury like Dennis (@DMalles98) said. He recorded 146 yards on 44 carries (3.3 YPC) with one touchdown and two fumbles. But like I mentioned earlier, David Wilson definitely has the potential to be a superstar. Wilson did not have enough playing time (only 115 carries in two seasons) like Jesse (@JesseCampbell23) said. Wilson's two fumbles in Week 1 against the Cowboys really put him behind on the depth chart in 2013. We've seen Wilson do well with opportunity in college and at the end of the 2012 season and he never had much of an opportunity before his injury last season.
Obviously, the best the case scenario is for this to be a minor injury like Wilson stated and ease him back into action. But I seriously doubt that will be the case. Hopefully the Giants will be able to suffice using a RBBC (which they were probably doing anyway even with Wilson) and let Wilson move on. Above all, let's hope that David Wilson will recover and at least be able to pursue a less risky career choice. We will find out on Monday what his test results say.
Alex Sappe
Co-creator and co-editor-in-chief of Three By Five Sports Network
Co-host of the Third and Long Podcast
Co-host of the Footballistically Speaking Podcast
Follow me on Twitter @AlexSappe
Fantasy Football Special part 2: The Run on Kickers
The second half of our fake football special is ready for your welcoming earholes. Plus, we've uploaded the original cut of the episode, partly as a glimpse into how much we put into this special, and partly because I didn't want the audio to go to waste. Get part 2 here, and the original cut here!
The final draft board (shoutouts to Google Spreadsheet which is a thing that exists):
Tuesday, July 29, 2014
Article 1: Long Suspensions, Long Deals, and the Possibility of Great Value
Article 1: Long Suspensions, Long Deals, and the Possibility of Great Value
YES!!!! ARTICLE #1!!!! What I'm planning on doing with these articles is talk about any recent sports news which I believe can be very important to our upcoming podcasts or could use a little analysis from myself or any of our hosts/guest hosts. There also could be sports which we don't talk about in our podcasts which you'll find in these articles (like the MLB, NBA, PGA, etc.). So anything that I hear about in the days leading up to a new article, I could throw in here and will probably have quotes by hosts from our podcast network. All right, let's get this going.
Josh Gordon Hires Maurice Suh
The Cleveland Browns #1 wide receiver, Josh Gordon, has hired an attorney to assist him in his appeal of his one-year suspension for failing a drug test. Maurice Suh, the attorney he has hired, is the same attorney who represented Richard Sherman when Sherman tested positive for Adderall. Sherman won his appeal of his four game suspension.
This is good news for Gordon because of the experience Suh has with the NFL appeal process for drug usage. Suh should know exactly what to say and what to bring to the table when trying to win this appeal.
I have all reason to believe that Gordon's suspension will be knocked down to 6-8 games. He has a lot of things going for him now. Ever since Ray Rice's suspension of only 2 games for domestic violence, the general public has been going off about how the suspension should have been worse. I completely agree. The way I see it, the NFL doesn't seem to care much about things like domestic violence and cares much more about failing drug tests. This is exactly what a lot of people believe. If the NFL wants to look a little fairer with their suspension process (AHEM, talking to you too NHL), they will drop Gordon's suspension down.
Connor Campbell (@CCam33), our friend and upcoming guest host for the Third and Long Podcast, said this:
"Best case scenario for him is the same thing Big Ben [Roethlisberger] got. Six games with the opportunity to cut it to four. Then again, apparently raping (allegedly) and beating women is okay but smoking weed isn't."
This quote basically sums up how everyone feels and what we see coming. Look for Gordon's suspension to probably be cut in half.
Derick Brassard Signs Five-Year Deal
Derick Brassard, restricted free agent for the New York Rangers, has signed a five-year, $25 million deal, according to Elliotte Friedman. This leaves only John Moore for the Rangers to resign, after deals have been struck with guys like Zuccarello and Kreider.
Personally, I like the deal. Yes, five years is a long time, but Brassard is only 26 and the Rangers are already short on centers. There also will be very few quality centers entering free agency next season. Krejci and Spezza are some names that come to mind but I think their respective teams will eventually sign them before free agency begins anyway. Five million per year may also seem like a lot but the salary cap will be going up over the next few seasons and it should look like a good deal by the end of the contract. In summary, Brassard will be entering his prime and if he can keep up with how he did this past season, it is a very fair deal.
Mike Kane (@ThatMikeKane), host of the Going 5-Hole Podcast, said:
"It's fine. $5 million per [year] is what you have to pay for a 2nd line center. If he puts up 60 points it's fine."
However, others may feel slightly differently than Mike and I do. Dennis Malles (@DMalles98), host of the Going 5-Hole Podcast, told me:
"I like him locked up for long term, but it's a little much. They paid for potential, not production."
Dennis does have a point. Brassard has looked great when he's on his game but he's had trouble with consistency. But at 26 years old, I can see him becoming that 50+ point player this season. He's been so close over the past few years...47 in 2010-11, 41 in 11-12, 29 in 12-13 (shortened season...would've been about a 48 point season in a full season), and 45 in 13-14. I think he figures everything out this season and becomes the player that the Rangers are hoping he'll be.
Lucio Leone (@TheThirdEsquire), host on Three By Five Sports Network, said:
"Good short term deal but might be a roadblock on the way to resigning Stepan, Zuccarello, [and] Staal soon."
Nick Paine (@nrpaine), an NHL guest host we've had on our podcast previously, said this to me earlier today:
"Got overpaid by about $1.5 million. [The Rangers] have too much trouble now this year."
What I'd argue to this is there wasn't really a better option. Brassard is not the kind of player you want to walk away because you could see him really panning out over these next two years. He's a big piece of the Rangers search for the Stanley Cup and you don't want to be going into the season without your second line center. The deal will look better when the cap goes up since everyone in the league will be asking for more money and there will be more room to resign other key players on the team.
Look for more on this in the next Going 5-Hole Podcast coming out this week.
Arian Foster Fantasy Football Value
Ah yes, I had to get a little bit of fantasy football in this article since that's all I've really been paying attention to over the past two weeks. ESPN's Ken Daube, wrote an article this morning on how Arian Foster is worth the early risk in the draft. This coincides with exactly what I was saying for the past few weeks.
Foster, coming off an injury last season, may not seem like the best option out there for your RB1, but I disagree. He's in consideration to be the number 1 overall pick according to my analysis.
Last year Arian Foster did not have the type of season that his fantasy owners were hoping for. 725 total yards and 2 touchdowns in 8 total games played. But last year isn't what you should be paying attention to. First off, Arian Foster was never 100% last year except for maybe one game. Neither was a lot of the Texans team. This year will be different.
The defense will be better this year with the additions of Clowney, Clemens, and coordinator, Romeo Crennel. This will lead to way more opportunities to run the ball during the course of the game. Another reason to believe in the Texans this year is their schedule. They are playing the NFC East (one of the worst defensive divisions in the league), Oakland, Cleveland, Buffalo, and obviously Jacksonville twice. It's an incredibly easy schedule for them this season, just like Kansas City's regular season schedule last year (KC started the season 9-0). Lastly, Foster can run and catch in an offense run by Bill O'Brien now. O'Brien was the offensive coordinator for the Patriots in their 2011 Super Bowl loss year (in which they barely lost). That should be enough information to show why O'Brien will know how to run this team. Oh yeah, and no Ben Tate this season.
In my opinion all signs are pointing to an elite season from Foster. But would I take him #1 overall like I have him projected? Probably not. But if you have a late first round pick, pull the trigger and just wait for another huge season like we know Foster can have.
About the Author
Alex Sappe
Co-creator and co-editor-in-chief of Three By Five Sports Network
Co-host of the Third and Long Podcast
Co-host of the Footballistically Speaking Podcast
Follow me on Twitter: @Alex Sappe
Fantasy Football Special: Nick Foles, the Blue Eyes White Dragon
It's D&D-for-sports-geeks season once again, and we're your dungeon masters! Alex (@AlexSappe) and Lucio (@TheThirdEsquire) slog through a 12-team, 15 round mock fantasy draft to give their opinions on player rankings, potential sleepers, and the landscape of the upcoming fantasy season. Get it on the feed or download it here!
The Offseason Sucks...
The Offseason Sucks...
It's still only July. The EPL regular season is still more than 2 weeks away. The NFL regular season is still more than a month away. The NHL regular season is still more than 2 months (AGHHJAGHJ) away. Worst of all, the summer months are starting to drag on.
All ESPN is giving us is LEBRON IS GONNA WEAR NUMBER 23!!!!!!!!! and a bunch of MLB highlights (which all look the same to me). I've been preparing a little earlier than normal for the fantasy football season because I'm still upset over my 3rd place finish from last season and I really can't wait for football. But even that can get a little boring after a while. Here atThree By Five Sports Network, we've been recording random episodes of our podcasts because we're trying to make something relevant out of the sports world today. The Going 5-Hole Podcast should have an offseason episode coming up within the week and the Third and Long Podcast will have a special edition episode where Lucio and I do a mock draft for every team in a 12 team league (It was a good idea but dragged on a bit in the end).
So to keep our loyal followers and myself entertained, I will be posting articles throughout the rest of the offseason (and maybe even continue into the season if there are still things I want to talk about which are not discussed in the podcast episodes). Each article could have anything written in it but most likely will be general news and quick analysis by myself and our other hosts. My first offseason article will be posted today.
Just remember, football and fútbol are almost here!
Follow me on Twitter: @AlexSappe
Saturday, July 12, 2014
Upcoming (and practically useless) Information
We're Official!
Now that we have our brand new website built by our own hosts, Lucio Leone and Alex Sappe, we'll be getting a constant stream of content posted here from now on. Get ready for...
Weekly! episodes of the Third and Long Podcast (NFL), hosted by Lucio Leone, Jesse Campbell, and Alex Sappe, starting mid to late August!
Bi-weekly!! episodes of the Footballistically Speaking Podcast (EPL), hosted by Lucio Leone, Alex Sappe, and Mike Kane, starting early to mid August!
And random!!!!!!!!!! episodes of the Going 5-Hole Podcast (NHL), hosted by Mike Kane and Dennis Malles (We're hoping for at least bi-weekly episodes but who knows when these two lazy buffoons are doing with their section...who invited them anyway...)!
The dates it's looking like our podcast seasons will start are:
Third and Long: Wednesday, August 27th
Footballistically Speaking: Monday, August 11th
Going 5-Hole: ???????????? (Shooting for somewhere between 10/1 and 10/8)
All of this has probably already made this the greatest news you've ever heard...but wait! There's more! (Yes, I know...I'm almost done though) Now that we're official, we're now on iTunes! You can subscribe to our podcast network (https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/three-by-five-sports-network/id896879341?mt=2) so you'll never miss an episode.
All of us here at Three By Five Sports Network look forward to providing all of this content and hope that you enjoy it and keep listening!
Saturday, June 28, 2014
Episode 4: World Cup Knockout Special (featuring Bite Puns!)
Our fourth and final episode for our summer "inception" test series is through the pipes, boys and girls, and it's arguably our best yet. Join us as we discuss the World Cup's happenings thus far, as well as some in-depth analysis of the USMNT's place in the tournament and predictions for the knockouts!
Listen here or get it through our RSS feed here!
Listen here or get it through our RSS feed here!