Fantasy Hype Train vol. II: Hopping the Rails

Self-attribution bias theorizes that, if a single person experiences success, it was by their own doing, while setbacks or failures come about due to others or circumstances or anything BUT that given person's actions. It leads to people erroneously trusting in their own decisions and ideas without critical examination. SAB factors into player hype inflation just as much as any other aspect of one's life. Dropping a penny on a train rail in the hopes of appearing on the five-o-clock news surveying fresh wreckage is not only a possible sign of major psychoses, but also of naivete; even if one didn't know such a story had been debunked over a century ago as pure myth, the idea that a sliver of pliable ore could flick tons of metal into the air like a dandelion head should ring a skepticism bell somewhere. Excessive speed, be it via neglect or hubris or whatever, CAN induce a rail-hop. What I'm trying to get at through this contrived and woefully-thin allegory is that one's plans can launch off the rails through excessive hype for a given player, disregarding pitfalls due to situational blindness. This exercise looks at a pair of well-liked fantasy prospects through an objective and critical lens, so our excitement doesn't leave us like the opening scene in Unbreakable.

A wildly underrated movie, by M. Night Shyamalamadingdong, no less

C.J. Spiller

MFL ADP: 52, Fantasy Pros ranking: 62 (RB26)

Spiller's road has been a long one thus far. A former first-round pick of the Bills, he cobbled together only one productive season, but damn, was it a great one. Spiller's 2012 seems ethereal now, but its memory still tugs at our senses come draft time. His ceiling is sky-high, we rationalize, which isn't wrong at all. But potential alone cannot justify a player's price...so we look to his new surroundings. Spiller left Buffalo in the lurch this offseason and now fills Pierre Thomas/Travaris Cadet's old role in New Orleans. Combined, the duo saw 106 of the team's 154 RB targets last year, a number that could grow in the post-Jimmy Graham era. Pundits expect Spiller to be third on the team in overall targets, behind sophomore Brandin Cooks and senior citizen Marques Colston. Momentum is already building behind his market value as people sum his talent with the new offense. It's a volatile situation that promises to exacerbate gradually; one must keep the Spiller love in check and correct for his possible failings. As I've previously mentioned, Sean Payton has gradually retooled his offense into a more balanced attack than it once was, hoping to feature Mark Ingram as the primary weapon outside Drew Brees; this will likely lead to an effort to keep two tight ends on the field more often, which would mean Spiller will either split out wide or just come off the field. While Spiller's lack of other production in Buffalo resulted partly from the coaching staff having its collective head up its ass regarding Spiller's ability in space ("WHY ARE YOU RUNNING HIM BETWEEN THE TACKLES OVER AND OVER?"), it still carries weight. We've seen glimpses on the field since 2012, but nothing substantial enough to convince me that it wasn't an outlier season. Another bit to recall is Spiller's penchant for getting hurt. He's missed 8 games over the past two years and still fights off a lingering ankle issue. At his current ADP, Spiller is right at the intersection of worth and value: you're getting exactly what you pay for. I expect his price to bubble over into the third round as the offseason buzz grows louder and beat writers pump him up even more than they already have, which makes him too much of a possible liability outside of PPR leagues for my tastes.

Melvin Gordon

MFL ADP: 30, Fantasy Pros ranking: 29 (RB13)

Ho-lee shit. Rookie Derangement Syndrome once more attacks our young and burns our villages to tinder. Gordon came off the board the second RB and takes his talents to San Diego, which even Ray Charles saw coming. He takes over from new Eagle Ryan Mathews as the two-down runner for the Chargers, alongside passing down back and resident "lunchpail guy" Danny Woodhead. Don't take his presence here as a knock on the guy; I think Gordon runs well and can find success in the Chargers' system. But, and you may notice the theme here, one must take a measured approach to his fantasy potential. First off, Gordon is a former Badger. The RB-friendly system and monstrous offensive line at Wisconsin has buoyed otherwise-average backs for over a decade, with their last successful NFL transplant being Ron Dayne in 2000 (Montee Ball hasn't looked too great thus far, but he's still young, so he gets a mulligan for now). While dazzling when he escapes the defense and hits the second level, Gordon sometimes gave up on dirty runs: NFL.com noted him being stuffed on 20% of his runs. Going from one of the top lines in college ball to the 26th-ranked run-blocking unit in the NFL (last year) casts an ominous pallor over the future this stat portends. On the other hand, his shifty footwork and fluid hips help him to escape tackles, as evidenced by his 1200 yards after contact last year. Plus, San Diego's line improved somewhat after the season, having added Orlando Franklin and TJ Clemmings into the mix. Gordon adds nil to the pass game due to shaky protection and lobster claws, so his opportunities are already limited early on. He'll have to simultaneously run near optimal efficiency (difficult) and rip off some home runs (slightly less difficult) to return on his owner's almost bombastic investment. San Diego draws a somewhat tough RB schedule this year, but gets to play Oakland championship week. I expect Gordon to start slow but close the year as a solid RB2; he should be avoided at his draft-day price, but may prove a juicy trade chip as the year progresses.

--Lucio Leone
@thethirdesquire

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Fantasy Hype Train, vol. I: Drink the Kool-Aid

Training camp: where sanity and restraint go to die. Player reports flood in, dripping with optimism and hyperbole. We've all heard the beats before; "Player X looks better than anyone I've seen step onto this field EVER," "His catch radius is the size of the Voyager 2 spacecraft," "If Rice and Sanders had a child, he wouldn't be half as fast as this guy," ad nauseum. The hype train is picking up steam once again, boys and girls, and like it or not, we're along for the ride. I'll be running through a few exemplary cases from both ends of the fantasy spectrum: possible hype heroes, and violent, mortifying train crashes. Let's begin on a positive, hopeful note, with those players who I believe can live up to their buzz.

As a side note, please do yourself a favor and Google "Thomas the Dank Engine."

Conductor: Ameer Abdullah, RB, DET

MFL ADP: 55, Fantasy Pros ranking: 86

Ameer Abdullah entered the draft sporting a 6.6 yards per touch average, having just whipped the Big Ten for almost 2000 total yards. Despite a perceived lack of ideal size and some fumbling concerns, Detroit spent their second-rounder on the shifty back and, along with multiple offensive line pickups, made it clear the organization intends to upgrade their trench warfare corps as much as possible. Abdullah landed in one of the most rookie-friendly scenarios, presently stepping into Reggie Bush's vacated role as passing back (ahead of pundit-anointed incumbent Theo Riddick). Camp reports peg Abdullah as the informal MVP, and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi already envisions his shiny new toy as part of a "one-two punch" with hammer Joique Bell. Lombardi's scheme, having gleaned many elements from former boss Sean Payton, affords RBs an impressive share of targets: last year, Bell, Riddick, and Bush combined for over 150 targets, one quarter of the team's total. Calvin Johnson's three-game absence acted as a mitigating factor in these results, but note that none of the RB trio played a full season, either; in fact, Bush saw the field for only 11 weeks and still put up a 40-of-56 line. So, as it currently stands, Abdullah's a solid bet to outproduce Bush's lacluster 2014 and offer up a comfortable return on investment. Digging a bit deeper into conjecture, however, is where the hype shifts into fifth gear. Bell, at the current rate, will open 2015 as the Lions' nominal starting RB. Even as a fan of his, though, I can admit he's a pedestrian runner at best, whose production comes more from effort and maximizing his opportunities than noteworthy talent. There exists a canyon between him and Abdullah in terms of natural ability, and Abdullah has all but declared that he wants to usurp Bell and take on a three-down workload. Of course, hedging bets on talent has felled many a fantasy GM in the past (thanks, Matt Asiata), so one must keep Abdullah's many roadblocks to stardom in mind. At his current MFL10 ADP of 55, Abdullah is a dice-roll, and sits ahead of comparable picks like Shane Vereen, DeSean Jackson, and the aforementioned Bush (assuming San Francisco's monumental defensive losses lead to a bunch of pass-first gameflow, Bush should amass sufficient volume for our needs.) Composite rankings from Fantasy Pros peg him at a much more reasonable 86, but rankings this early in the process bleed volatility, so that number means close to nil right now. I'll likely draft Abdullah wherever I can manage it if he falls into the late fourth or fifth round, but until the fog clears from Detroit's depth chart, anything higher burns capital.

Lumber Car: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB

MFL ADP: 130, Fantasy Pros ranking: 150

ASJ's rookie year had all the usual trappings of a greenhorn tight end: playbook confusion, sloppy routes, low production, and an overall slow start to his playing career. Entering year two, ASJ is staring down what should be a mountainous leap up the rankings. Gone are the floundering temps Lovie Smith employed in journeyman Josh McCown and interim OC Marcus Arroyo; in their places stand first overall pick and lauded QB prospect Jameis Winston, and former Atlanta offensive boss Dirk Koetter. Not to mince words, but Jenkins may have slipped into TE Valhalla. Koetter oversaw one of the most TE-heavy offenses in history during his time with Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez, and considers the position integral to offensive efficacy. Meanwhile, Famous Jameis enters the league pro-ready with impressive pocket mechanics, already an upgrade over erratic McCown. Winston, like his new OC, loves his TEs, having siphoned targets to his former Seminoles teammate Nick O'Leary (who finished with a 50-618-6 line their senior year). Now he gets a massive talent upgrade, trading his hardy maple for a towering, steely oak. ASJ's currently turning heads in spring practices, but such news is expected. When the pads go on later this month, we can put him under the microscope to judge whether he's made the requisite progress in body control, routes, and playbook knowledge. His current rank evokes the tentative optimism surrounding Tampa's offense with Winston at the helm; he displayed lax ball control and sketchy intermediate accuracy in 2014, and expecting much growth out of a rookie would be foolish (especially alongside recent biases fueled by Andrew Luck, Russel Wilson, and 2013 Robert Griffin). A particularly shallow TE pool coming into this year's fantasy season may also artificially inflate ASJ's price, to a point where one overpays for his potential without considering his floor. Naturally, all of this is speculation, but if Jenkins' price hovers around its current spot, I'd have no qualms punching my ticket for the hype train.

Caboose: Nick Toon, WR, NO

MFL ADP: 202, Fantasy Pros ranking: 225

New Orleans football has been in somewhat dire straits lately. The defense under Rob Ryan regressed last year, and recently lost a valued producer in Junior Galette. Drew Brees fell under Father Time's horrid spell, throwing passes with less fervor and zip than we expect from the Pro Bowler. Faced with the issues at hand, Sean Payton took a chisel to his offense, recrafting it into a more balanced-looking ground control squad. While such a change may not lead to record stats, many transactions within Payton's plan stand to benefit wideout Nick Toon. Toon enters his third season with 21 career catches, having spent his first two years buried on the depth chart and sidelined with injuries. As superstitious followers will spout, a WR's third year oozes breakout potential thanks to full scheme development and general comfort. Toon may have far less game-time experience than most third-year players, but his offensive role balances this out. Jimmy Graham, the number-one team target, is sipping frappucinos in Seattle; deep man Kenny Stills now languishes in South Beach with one of the worst deep passers in the league; and former understudy Marques Colston looked positively spent when on the field last year. Toon faces little competition for outside targets opposite Brandin Cooks and, thanks to his not-insignificant height advantage over the twitchy sophomore, may gobble the lion's share of replacement end zone targets. The Saints' defense improved outside of Galette's pectoral tear this offseason, which may lower Toon's ceiling a bit; on the other hand, positive game flow should be on his side. Attached to a still-elite quarterback, enviable game planner, and productive offense, Nick Toon is worth his dart-throw-round price. He provides solid wideout depth with the potential to overtake Colston for targets, possibly rising as high as third in priority targets (likely behind Cooks and new arrival C.J. Spiller or veteran TE Josh Hill).

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Five Nuggets of Wisdom to Keep in Mind at Your First Draft

Congratulations to you, new fantasy footballer, on prancing over the metaphorical Rubicon and joining our collective degeneracy! I welcome you with open arms and a somewhat less-than-appropriate erection, assuredly a natural result of my excitement. Entering this world of statistics, names, procedure, and strategy can seem daunting, but push your fears into that dark corner of your brain filled with cobwebs and awkward teenage memories. Here, we seek to help you, new meat, on your way to your first fantasy draft. I've outlined a few important points in my personal credo to keep you from hopping the rails and crashing, in the hopes that your first experience is wholly satisfying.

1: Have a plan ready. Arguably the most obvious point about drafting, it's also the most glaring mistake that can be made. Drafters should enter the war room with a goal in mind and a strategy one how to achieve it. Are you aiming for a more value-based draft? Best player available? Maybe a zero-RB or upside-down approach? General ideas of how to traverse the draft-board-minefield help make the trip more forgiving. Note, though, the use of the phrase "general ideas." Too strict adherence to a plan traps even seasoned GMs in the same pit as blind drafters when something goes awry. Focus and flexibility encompass a proper mindset when the fateful day arrives, which leads us into...

2: Don't get cute early on. Studs are studs for a reason; they marry consistency, ability, production, scheme fit, and a host of smaller game aspects better than most other players at a given position.  And while myriad scoring formats exist, I've not come across one that awards bonus points for boasting that you totally knew Kendall Wright would blow up and that's why you took him over Demariyus Thomas. Granted, the example would likely never happen outside hyperbole, but getting too absorbed in your personal biases can blind you to potential mistakes, value discrepancies, and the like. The draft is your kingdom's foundation, and if you build it on a fault line, nobody will care when it topples into the abyss.

...Has that ever happened in real life? Maybe I've watched The Core too many times.

3: Study, study, study. My first draft was a disaster due to my ignorance and half-finished research into the league; I drafted Beanie Wells fifth overall, not knowing he'd torn a ligament and would be out for the year, because I lacked to foresight to simply Google the damn name a few days beforehand. The rest of the day followed a similar path fraught with injuries, absurd reaches, and horrid roster construction ("Four quarterbacks is the safest way to go!") Familiarize yourself with your league's scoring system, where bonus points are allotted, what positions you have to start every week, all the basics. Participate in live mock drafts with real people, as opposed to rankings-based computers. Utilize the resources at your disposal; don't be ashamed to copy expert lists or pore over preparatory articles (cough) if it makes you more comfortable.

4: Attach yourself to good teams and soft schedules wherever possible. Reality and fantasy overlap more than we tend to realize. I've written before about the deceptive effects of positive and negative game flow on a team's ability to "remain on script;" when a team is winning, coordinators tend to follow their laid-out plan more closely, and this positive game script affords players a fantasy-friendly environment. For instance, Ryan Mathews averages five fantasy points more in wins than losses, due to the Chargers' tendency to veer towards an air attack and marginalize ball-control. To stack up some additional examples on how the phenomenon works, check out Football Guys' empirical RB analysis from 2012 here. Though not as pronounced, positive game script also affects other skill positions (most notably the quarterback,) driving perpendicular to the "shootouts always mean more points" myth. Hence, filling your stable with players from good overall teams helps to reduce random chance and keep your players on the plus side of game flow.

5: Have fun, and don't overthink it. As hokey as the phrase may be, it rings hollow too often. Take a metaphysical perspective for a moment: each week, you roll the dice on whether your Giant Running Back with plus-three tackle breaking ability actually puts it to use, or hits a critical fail and breaks his leg. Fantasy football is merely a group of friends playing Dungeons and Dragons without the little figurines (Footballs and Factoids? Pigskins and Point-whores?) One shouldn't be dour in the midst of playing a game, especially a game he or she clearly loves to play. How many drafts ever precipitate the exact way a GM expects? Not even Ol' Predictor Jones got it unequivocally right,* so keep yourself grounded and don't lose it over a few deviations from your expected result.


*Ol' Predictor Jones guessed I would say this and called to confirm he's never seen a perfect draft either.

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