Arbitrage All-Stars, Volume III

As the preseason enters its third week and drafts pick up steam, innumerable eyes are glued to the Twitterverse, slurping up data streams from all 32 camps. I count myself among the new-age zombies; I must have at least a dozen web alerts set for certain players and teams, to watch over depth chart battles and injury problems and generally exacerbate my anxiety. I'm already two drafts in, with one or two more on the way, and the fear of the unknown pulses through these already-built rosters. An aftereffect of the instant-news world we live in is higher volatility in the player market. Drafting in early August has its pros and cons, both relating to aforementioned camp storylines and potential injuries. It's a big reason why I hope discussing value in the drafts can help, by mitigating the high cost of camp stars that hold even more risk this early in the preseason. This time around, we'll take a look at running backs, inarguably the riskiest yet most important position on one's fake football roster (aside from the true cornerstone, kicker! Get at me, Legatron.) Likely a study in volatility in itself, this article and others like it are subject to change drastically depending on, again, camp and exhibition games. For now, though, I'd like to send up a few overdrafted backs over the next week or so and bestow upon you, the lucky reader, my wholly infallible opinions. If that sounds like a prime example of autofellatio, just know that my nickname in college was King Lucio and move on.

Offender: Rashad Jennings, ADP 3.12/RB18

Arbitrage All-Stars: Ben Tate 6.3, Bernard Pierce 8.4, Run DMC 10.6

Deep Cut: Mark Ingram 11.11

Pictured here running away from the Raiders' roster

Let's get this out of the way now: growing up as a Dallas fan in a New York City suburb carried its share of difficulties. And, yes, maybe I harbor a bit of seething, blind despication for Big Blue and their extra-chromosome-sporting QB. However, I approach this conclusion from an unbiased position, and even consulted with a few Giants fans who shared my sentiments. Rashad Jennings is 29 years old and has bounced between three teams in the past few years; his career arrow points straight into the turf. Take a look at the trendline of RBs and their typical age of decline below (QB is shown as a comparative measure from a far less physically-taxing position). With a few exceptions, the doom age of 27 seems to drive fantasy backs off a cliff. Adjusting for his

Not shown: Emmitt Smith's league numbers at age 75

production so far, Jennings would be looking at a four-point drop in his average PPG. Plus, we don't even know what his actual floor and ceiling might be, thanks to his lack of a true full season of work to look at. Of course, his low career workload can be spun to defend his age; having not gotten near the same amount of wear on his tires as most RBs by the same age, Jennings' chances to cast off any projected decline seem tangible. Besides, even Peyton Hillis and Brandon Jacobs had fantasy-relevant weeks in New York last year (yes, Hillis exists and isn't just a doppelganger that jumped off the Madden '12 cover for a year after some witch's spell had gone awry, which is what I believe.) To me, never having played a full season by this age raises a red flag higher than the one at the end of Super Mario Bros. levels, completely outweighing any perceived optimism. Plus, the other RBs in New York did well because the team had no other way to get the ball downfield. Eli practically went blind last year and just slung the ball anywhere, Nicks legitimately cannot play football (good luck, Indy), and my man Rueben had a drought-stricken, branchless route tree. In May, even after signing Jennings and getting word that human lightning bolt David Wilson would be cleared, the Mara family fortress went out and drafted one of my favorite rookies, athletic stud Andre Williams. Now, add in the fact that Jennings' price commands a third-round pick from most drafters, and a dire problem materializes. Shelling out that kind of Monopoly money for a space back that may not even have a starting job by December (camp reports are glowing for Williams outside of his pass-catching, and I fully expect him to have a big future in the city) screams hype-fueled overdraft. Comparable plays exist further down the board to plug into your RB2/flex spots; for now, take a high-upside wideout or Gronk-enstein instead.

Benedict Tate: Cleveland's newest addition to the merry-go-round they've called a running back corps for the past six years. Tate, however, has the highest pedigree and most positive production out of any back in that span (yes, I do count Trent Richardson among the handfuls of "Bama Busts"). Tate came into the league with a shimmering 4.34 40 time, to go with a 124-inch broad jump and soft hands out of the backfield. Despite the injury-prone label he picked up over the years, his career numbers indicate no lost speed or ability, averaging just under 80 yards a game on an average of fifteen touches behind one of the worse offensive lines in the league. As I have mentioned before and will continue to point out, many potential value players have found themselves in positions to succeed thanks to positive scheme and line changes, and Tate may benefit from his change of scenery the most out of his contemporaries. As a fast, one-cut runner with some poundage to him, Tate will inevitably excel in Kyle Shanahan's zone-blocking scheme, behind a top-ten offensive line. Josh Gordon's possible suspension notwithstanding, Shanny Junior has a history of favoring the run and may have a gunslinging mobile QB at his disposal to nurture in his system and split defenses. Even better, Tate's ADP suffers from the presence of Terrance West, an impressive yet inferior athlete, and how much the Browns invested in him (two draft picks in a trade up in May). While I've made a point in targeting West late in drafts due to the upside Shanny's system affords any RB, I've not been afforded the luxury of drafting Tate yet and would certainly take the plunge on him in the fifth. With a healthy season and an (expected) improvement on both sides of the ball in Cleveland, he could even find himself among the top-fifteen at the position. Draft him with wild abandon.

Speaking of zone-blocking schemes, Gary Kubiak finally got himself out of the smoldering quagmire of Houston and finds himself in John Harbaugh's clan, up on the east coast in Baltimore. If you've read my previous entries in this little series, you might notice a trend of Baltimore player recommendations; between their grim post-championship performance last season making them subject to major recency bias and the positive changes team brass made on the offensive side of the ball, I see Baltimore as a city of fantasy gold. The Nard Dog (rid dit dit da doo) has already shown in camp that last year's struggles may have been a fluke, and after having cast off Michael Oher ("the Blind Side guy"), the Ravens' offensive line has taken a similar step forward. Pierce fits Kubiak's scheme fantastically, especially compared to former first-round money shot Ray Rice, and has a nice chunk of time to prove himself as the backfield's new leader. Rice and his left hook will ride pin for the first two games of the season, and at 28 with a ton of career touches, stares down the same precipice Jennings does in New York. Rumors already peg Rice as strictly a pass-catching back a la Roy Helu, capitalizing on his still-superior hands and in-space performance. Kubiak seems intelligent enough to change the guard, so to speak, and establish Pierce as his new early-down back and next RB study. In the early eighth round with a possible breakout on the way, Pierce is worth a roll of the dice. The only thing to give drafters pause are his numbers from last year and the absolutely ridiculous brevity of Rice's suspension, which could mire the two in a full-on timeshare. However, I'm giddy for the third-year bruiser's first top-of-the-depth-chart opportunity; even if a hot hand situation arises in Baltimore, he's shown so far that his mitts are scorching going into the season. Flex him if you can, and keep him warm on the bench otherwise.

Oh, mercy. After years of watching the game, I finally have an opportunity to write about the Great Hamstring Massacre himself, Darren McFadden. Yet, we enter a time I thought would never come, a time where I extol the virtues of DMC over one of his peers. DMC left a horrible, chalky taste in fantasy GM's mouths last year, as he has every year since 2009, once again limping his way off the field after a handful of decent games. In our world, there may be no player more maligned (as is customary, shout outs to Joe Elich). Now that he finally sits behind an aging RB in decline (catching a pattern here?), McFadden's value has hit its peak. The fantasy community is apt to ignore a 25-year-old back who came into the league sporting a near-200 speed score and elite agility, but I see all that potential behind old MoJo glowing like the Raiders' short-route savior. Reports out of camp describe the drastic changes trainers made to DMC's training regimen,

Darren McFadden at his last press conference

speculatively repairing whatever conditioning problems contributed to his fragility. Playing in a timeshare with Jones-Drew should keep DMC fresher than he's ever been, while keeping him away from the Raiders' subpar offensive line. He can flash his shake-and-bake magic in space and settle into the big-play change of pace role. Plus, the Raiders sport a tight end corps almost as poor as the Giants' and a somewhat shallow wideout group, ensuring that both backs will see the field in "21" formations a bunch.  Much of his upside consists of the same old song and dance, but two-back systems have proven able to propel both backs to fantasy relevance before (Mathews-Woodhead in San Diego and Bush-Bell in Detroit being the freshest examples) as long as the coach pounds the ball and gets his pass-catcher in space. I have a tiny spark of faith in Dennis Allen following the Whisenhunt model from last year; with DMC possibly shouldering a Woodhead-esque workload and doing more with his touches thanks to his otherworldly, Al-Davis-era speed, he certainly has a chance to buck his plague-ridden fantasy reputation this season. He's the quintessential low-cost, high-upside play this year, certainly worth a flier and a spot on the bench.

Tumble further towards the bottom of the rabbit hole, and we find yet another post-hype disappointment, Mark Ingram. Yet another player enjoying his camp, Ingram has taken most of the first-team snaps in practice, and seems to have an early leg up on buzz-monster Khiry Robinson for between-the-tackles duty. Players raved about his performance against the Rams last week, voting for him over phenom Brandin Cooks (1). Even more important to his prospects, to me, relates to Pierre Thomas, the other holdover in the Saints' backfield. PT Bruiser recently found himself knocked to third on the depth chart, ahead of only Travaris Cadet and Tim (Ned) Flanders. Saints coaches haven't been very high on PT so far this year; originally thought of as the major beneficiary of Darren Sproles' departure to the ugliest place on Earth (sorry not sorry Philly, don't throw batteries at me), it appears Thomas' place on the roster is only assured because of his solid receiving skills. While this means he can still contribute to a fantasy team if receptions reward points, he's now being overdrafted and forcing his fellow starting RB to be undervalued. Beat writers have Ingram taking the reins to start the season and only rescinding them to Khiry if he faceplants in a lead back role. As with most years passed, the backfield in New Orleans is often a mess and leads to headaches for all but the most involved GM (basement dwellers like myself have this locked down), and it only looks marginally clearer this year. Still, the juggernaut offense Payton and Brees run offers so much opportunity, it's difficult to pass up. Ingram's past inefficacy and the aforementioned muddled backfield are priced into his ADP, depressing it to the point where the potential rewards more than justify a flier on his talent and potential volume. Pair up Run DMC and Marky Mark on your bench and have a nineties party all season.

There were far too many omissions I had to make to ensure this article didn't inflate into a dissertation, but I plan on covering a few more RB risks in later pieces to compensate. Like I said at the outset, proper RB valuation can make or break a team more than any other position. Bust rates on the top-fifteen ADP RBs over time is around fifty percent, which means building your RB corps proves an even riskier endeavor than most realize. Hence, sifting through the sand will rarely net you a diamond, but stockpiling all the shiniest rocks you find at the bottom increases your chance of finding one, and it passes you off as a savvy hunter nonetheless.

--Lucio Leone