The preseason winds down once again, boys and girls, and our thirst for the gridiron has reached a fever pitch. Fake footballers are finalizing their rankings, scanning for the last bits of news to emerge from camp and roster cuts, and generally acting as degenerates so often tend to. More importantly, most depth chart battles have been won (or lost) by now, and the chances for injury are as low as they will be for the remainder of the season. For the final wave of drafters, arguably the most populated group of all, as well as GMs already playing the wire, I've decided to compile a few of my final sleepers and busts before the season gets underway. I wholly expect to burn this list by October, but for now, here's my opinion on who's hot and cold coming into the best time of the year.
Sleeper: Mike Wallace, 7.4. Mike Wallace consistently draws my ire in the league. He combines a prima-donna arrogance with laziness, flashing his monster potential without ever working hard enough to solidify himself as a top wideout. Fantasy-wise, however, he may finally get the necessary environment and utilization to grasp some of what people have expected for so long. Much has been made of Bill Lazor's trek from the Unhappiest Place on Earth to sunny Miami, hauling the Potato Chip Kelley offensive philosophy onto the beach. If preseason is anything to go on, the 'Fins look to have taken to his scheme changes well, taking pressure off the woeful offensive line and gifting Ryan Tannehill a wealth of high-percentage quick passes. While Tannehill and Wallace still have some rapport issues to iron out, Lazor is expected to use Wallace as his new DeSean Jackson, lining him up all around the field (a far cry from last year's streak-up-the-right-sideline playbook), exponentially boosting both his opportunities and potential effectiveness. Considering what creative use did for Jackson last season, and the relative similarity between the Fins and the Eagles in terms of personnel, Wallace's ceiling has potentially reached its apex.
Bust: Sammy Watkins, 8.8. Slammy Watkins (I take full credit for the nickname) rang through most camp beat writers' heads over the past few months, making highlight-reel plays and torching defensive backs. The Bills traded up to nab him in May, attempting to bestow upon their de-facto franchise quarterback a potent weapon. Maybe not the most equitable decision for the organization to make, sure, but it makes a ton of sense and gives them a blue-chip player to nurture in their already-young offensive core. Fake footballers took this as a sign to eat up every share of Slammy available, gambling on his grand talent and stranglehold on the #1 job in Buffalo. I am floored that he still goes in single-digit rounds. Remember last year? EJ Manuel looked like a terrified, Gabbertian prospect, and failed to make any of his receivers anything close to fantasy-relevant outside of one or two fluky weeks for one of my favorite sophomores, Robert Woods. While Watkins certainly has the chops and the depth chart position to transform some of his weeks into winners, the obvious run-first philosophy and QB situation the Bills must deal with present too many barriers to immediate fantasy success; Slammy's chariot will certainly turn back into a pumpkin for most owners expecting an every-week starter.
Sleeper: Lance Dunbar, 14.10. The Cowboys, moreso than in most recent years, represent one of the most lucrative diamond mines in all of fantasy. DeBeers would be proud if they weren't so corrupt. A high-flying offense powered by four top-10 players at their positions, attached to what could be the worst defense in franchise history, means points on top of points for owners. One asset flying criminally low under the radar is in-space powerhouse Lance Dunbar. With Scott Linehan fresh off a fantastic coaching season in Detroit, and the offensive line the best it's been in decades (poised to be a top-five unit if all things fall into place), Dunbar's role has the chance to expand dramatically as Linehan's new Reggie Bush-esque toy. More than likely an early bench stash in standard, but a potential contributor at the advent in PPR, Dunbar carries most of the other Dallas skill players' upside at an absolute pittance. Make him a regular guest on your watch list.
Bust: Frank Gore, 4.10. I know the Gore song and dance. The same doomsayers have preached his downfall for a handful of years now, to the point where you'd think he got a prosthetic knee and only certain people know. Of course, every year he's proven his mettle, galloping into the upper ranks of RB2s each time and rewarding the faithful. 2014, however, brings a different sense of doom to the workhorse's fantasy outlook. No more whispers of a Happening, waiting for the Day After Tomorrow to come and break him down; no, we're on full Armageddon watch. Gore's punishing style of running and advancing age both factor into his poor projections (as they have for years now), but last year saw him finally cross the dreaded 2,000-carry threshold, historically acting as a death knell for a back's production. Alex pointed out an alarming event that transpired early in San Francisco's last preseason game, where Gore took one carry and motioned to the sidelines that he needed to be taken off. Undoubtedly the 49ers were only planning on playing him for a few snaps, but for Gore himself to tell them he needed out sent the red flag shooting up. The bulldozer faces a major risk of stalling out after the first few weeks of the season, but still runs behind a top-notch offensive line and can benefit a roster. The risk, unfortunately, is too great. Nearly as important a part of his overvaluation, in my opinion, concerns Carlos Hyde, the heir apparent to the backfield. The 49ers raved about Hyde this entire offseason, and he's shown every reason why he was one of the top-ranked backs coming into the draft. He almost transcends handcuff-status at this point, certainly earning the right to change-of-pace duties and ready to take over once Gore begins to sputter. Spending draft capital on Gore obligates one to snatch Hyde up, too, and at his current ADP, most likely spending a very high pick to reach for his services.
--Lucio Leone
0 comments:
Post a Comment