Stock Up
Terrance West felt the immediate effects of the Shanahan System, thanks to Ben Tate "overachieving" to the tune of a knee injury halfway through his first game that forced him out. Mike Pettine is playing his cards close to his chest on Tate's (and Jordan Cameron's) injuries, so owners are stuck in a holding pattern. West would definitely chair the backfield committee if Tate misses time this early in the year; despite his grim preseason, he looked the part of a third-round back on Sunday. For now, he's a strong hold, but if Tate's out for a decent chunk of time, expect a possible shift in the backfield to Isaiah Crowell (for more info on him, see the Waiver Watch section).
Carson Palmer isn't dead, as some tabloids would have it. Mild buzz surrounded Palmer through the offseason, but he was a victim of being among the other "pretty-good" options at quarterback once drafts rolled around. Palmer's streamer status has been cemented as of Monday night, allowing owners to let him lead their platoon. Bruce Arians' air raid scheme, combined with the glut of pass-catching talent the Cardinals boast, makes him a threat to finish the year at the back-end of the top-twelve QBs. I'd take a long look at him if you're sporting an underachiever or a mid-level QB heading into a poor matchup (Brady, Griffin, Luck, Cutler, Rivers), as his matchup next week against the Giants could be even tastier.
Knowshon Moreno did well to pile on the carries Sunday, taking 25 totes for over 100 yards and a score in relief of the perennial underachiever Lamar Miller. He looked like the same player that emerged from the scrap heap in Denver, getting small when he cut into holes and showing his great pass protection. As a former Moreno detractor, I must confess the crow I'm eating at least tastes pretty good; his return from injury and strong performance against the (admittedly below-average) Patriots run defense, plus the continued woes for the Fins on their offensive line, adds another respectable and trusted back to a fantasy position that always lacks them.
Stock Down
Rueben Randle and Victor Cruz did nothing to assuage fears about their production in the new-look, old-story Giants offense. Randle only had three balls go his way Monday night (with one of those accompanied by a terrifying Pop-Warner-y spin move), below Jerell JAG Jernigan and lumbering Larry Donnell on the list. Cruz had six targets on the night, but almost had none through the entire first half, and only caught two of them. Both of the top receivers in New York have gobs of talent, but between Eli's lingering shell-shock and what looks like an uncomfortable fit for McAdoo's new offensive scheme, they may not get their chances to return on investments. Granted, it's still week one, and overreactions this early tend to torpedo weeks of planning, but bump them both down until the Giants find some consistency through the air.
Ray Rice is certainly someone to monitor if your league starts players on the prison pitch a la The Longest Yard. Otherwise, let him rot on the street where he's proven he belongs.
Maurice Jones-Drew ran worse than a spayed bull on ketamine Sunday. The Jets sport a high-level run stopping squad and the Raiders' offensive line is more "offensive" than "line," in his defense, but MJD's burst was MIA, and he had no lateral movement to speak of left in his hips. It's hard to imagine an eventuality where McFadden doesn't overtake him for lead back duties if the Raiders want to take pressure off of Derek Carr to win their games. I'd hedge your bets on him now and trade him to a team that's felt the recent RB injuries.
Tom Brady's performance in South Beach was nothing short of depressing, watching him wobble and overthrow passes a younger him could have made darts of while napping. His pass protection lacked any consistency, and his receivers outside of Gronkus Maximus dropped a few balls, but Todd Bradley is continuing to show the descent that began last season. More game manager than game winner at this point, his potential directly correlates with his matchups and the health of both Gronk and Shane Vereen. If you took him as your starter, consider pairing him with a waiver chucker (Tannehill, Palmer, Locker, McCown, even Anderson if he starts week two) and riding a platoon.
Buy Low
Torrey Smith performed as well as he'd been for the past handful of seasons against Cincinnati, but had very few balls go his way, especially considering Joe Flacco slung the ball 62(!) times. Pundits wrote this off as typically-good coverage by the Cincy secondary and a change in game flow, but I'm hard-pressed to believe the former. Smith saw almost none of Pro Bowler Leon Hall, instead running between zombies Terence Newman and Pacman Jones, who were already showing their age before their defensive guru coordinator left for Minnesota. Smith ran a nice chunk of short routes as promised, but he and Flacco seemed to be on different pages on some of them; I believe this led to Flacco looking for other options underneath as the game dragged on. This game most likely represented the growing pains of kicking their new offense into game speed, and little makes me think Smith can't consistently dominate the Ravens' passing game in the future.
Jason Witten had a horrid day against San Francisco, but by no fault of his. Tony Romo had an absolutely moribund passing day, and Frisco clearly planned to bracket him with their remaining linebackers, which they did so effectively. He still had six balls head his way and shares one of the premier bromances in the NFL with Romo (up among the burgeoning Kelvin Benjamin-Cam Newton connection and the Turk-and-JD-clone of Cutler-Marshall), making him a great bet to bounce back and ride high for most of the year.
Jeremy Hill only saw four touches against Baltimore, compared to Gio Bernard's twenty. There was little doubt about the Nard Dog's role coming into the season, and he put his subpar preseason behind him to play the Ravens like a fiddle. However, Hill's expected place as the thunder was all sound and no fury in week one. Hue Jackson later told pundits he planned to use Hill sparingly due to the daunting intra-divisional road matchup, but has seen enough good things to grant him more touches in the next week or so. Expectations are still high for Hill, and his value was always as a high-upside stash anyway. If your bench has some length to it, consider buying him for pennies from a panicking owner to reap the rewards as we move into the bulk of the season.
Sell High
Steve Smith finished his first game in post-Rice Baltimore leading the team in targets, along with Dennis Pitta, at a gross fifteen; he turned this huge opportunity into a 116-1 game. Taking away his final catch, an 80-yard scoring bomb from Mr. 120 Million, Smitty only gets 40 yards on six catches and a slew of drops to his name. While the death of Smitty has been greatly exaggerated for many years now, such a performance only fuels his expectations as Kubiak's new Kevin Walter, as Smitty himself put it. Sell his double-digit week at its ridiculous price if you can get a good deal, but he's worth clinging to as an Anquan Boldin-esque reserve if your WR depth lacks. He may be in line to absorb some of Rice's lost targets, which could push him into the starting conversation in plus matchups.
Bobby Rainey most likely wasn't drafted by most owners, outside of the more paranoid handcuffers, but sometimes nightmares come true. Doug Martin left the game against Carolina with what the Bucs called a knee injury, yet was seen with his lower leg and ankle wrapped later. Rainey takes on a workload befitting a Lovie Smith back for the forseeable future, until we learn what's going on with Dougie. I loved Rainey coming into his draft year, and expect him to be decent in relief of Martin if he misses time, but capitalizing on the sure panic many injury or usage-victimized owners takes precedence. Sell the nominal starting RB high, while we still don't know his real value (which will almost certainly lower as news on Dougie and other hurt backs comes out).
Vernon Davis, as anyone who's read my other columns knows, draws my ire as a TE. He has a maddening role in the SF offense, where his only real shots at scoring come from jump-ball touchdowns and the occasional seam route. Those two spikes against Dallas inflated his score hugely; the fact that he only managed 44 yards against such a vile defense reinforces my concerns about his week-to-week consistency. This could be a Davis owner's chance to move him with the intent of plugging any holes on the roster and getting solid reparations in a lower-ranked TE.
Waiver Watch
Isaiah Crowell's role in Cleveland suddenly has a face, and it's of a possible feature back. Crowell entered the league as a five-star recruit with an arrest to his name, forcing him to fall through the draft and sign with the Browns as a UDFA. Terrance West got the bulk of the carries after Tate left the field on Sunday, but I maintain that Crowell oozes running talent and fits the one-cut scheme better than West. He just needs to earn the team's trust and show consistency as the weeks pass. This, of course, is predicated on the possibility that Tate misses an extended period of time; as I mentioned above, West benefits greatly in the short-term if Tate's injury only sidelines him for a week or two. Still, put in a claim and wait until Cleveland's brass updates us on his status.
Justin Forsett rose from the ashes of Bernard Pierce's fumble like a tiny, jittering phoenix on Sunday, taking the reins of the backfield and scoring all two of his owners a ton of points. While his size and age (29 years old and under 200 pounds) chain his potential as a workhorse back, he obviously has Kubiak's trust from their days in Houston, and was a part of the offensive plan even before Pierce began his tumble (8 snaps and 2 targets before Pierce left). I believe Pierce will get his chance to retake the reins, as his talent and fit are undeniable and his fumble was the first of his career (off a huge hit from an All-Pro linebacker, no less), but Forsett is worth a pickup in the short term. Owners looking for a lottery ticket should also keep rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro in mind, who may be in line for an audition as the new pounder.
Allen Hurns struck the field with lightning in his preseason appearances, and looks to have carried it over to the big stage. Cecil Shorts' hamstrings are apparently made of Miles Austin, allowing Hurns a shot at sewing up a major role on the offense alongside fellow sleeper Marqise Lee and intruiging-yet-behind-schedule Allen Robinson. Stashing Hurns could turn a team's WR situation around in a hurry, especially if Blake Bortles (Blake Bortles Blake Bortles) finally gets his regular-season shot. I'm admittedly higher than most on the Jags this year, but his performances could turn a ton of viewers into believers.
--Lucio Leone
0 comments:
Post a Comment