Final Preseason Sleepers and Busts: From Rip van Winkle to Ryan Leaf, Part 2

Only a few precious days stand between us and the most glorious time of year, folks. Until our rosters matter once again, and luck clutches our fates in its wiry talons. The time for vigilance is now; push those desperation trades, scour the wire for gems, and keep tweaking those rankings. In time for Thursday night's festivities, here's the other half of my last-minute sleepers and busts for the season.

Best game ever, by the way. Where's my HD remake, Nintendo?

Sleeper: Greg Jennings, 13.9. Far removed from taking short passes to the house on a broken leg, Greg Jennings has settled into a supplementary passing role in Minnesota as his career winds down. However, that doesn't mean he can't still put the team on his back (doe). Current starter Matt Cassel showed a propensity for targeting Jennings as both a chain-mover and safety valve, and there's no reason to think that will end coming into this year. Much is made of Flash Patterson's potential growth in Nov Turner's new system, as well as Kyle Rudolph and Adrian Peterson absorbing more targets, but the existing WR-QB rapport assuages doubts about Jennings' role that these changes may raise. If and when Teddy Bridgewater seizes the throne and topples the Cassel, Jennings' stats have a very real chance to suffer. Yet, Bridgewater's fantastic accuracy and tendency towards short and intermediate throws makes me think his production has just as much chance to remain steady, if not see a slight uptick. In any form of PPR, Jennings has an easy shot at out-producing his ADP, and can be a sneaky matchup play or injury-disaster fallback. Even in standard, he can be a valuable reserve piece, or at worst, a trade chip to throw into those blockbuster deals that need just a little more prodding.

Bust: Trent Richardson, 6.4. Oh, T-Rich. I want to like you so badly. I drafted you in two leagues, in the top-six rounds, for crying out loud. Why are you still stutter-stepping? T-Rich suffered majorly from his in media res switch to the Colts, and it's pointed out as the reason why he can and will return to form this season. He's been afforded an entire offseason to absorb the playbook, learn his blocking assignments, and develop a relationship with the offensive line. Yet, every snap he took in the preseason painted a picture we've all seen before. Instead of hitting the hole with all that power he has behind him, Richardson would hesitate behind his blockers like he was having war flashbacks, eventually running into a defender for a generous two-yard loss. As I mentioned, T-Rich is alarmingly close to joining the ranks of "Bama Busts," and at this rate, they may punch his membership card before the end of the season. Multiple losses along the Colts' offensive line have only detracted from the sliver of hope that T-Rich could return value on his price and perform as a startable RB2. At this point, Ahmad Bradshaw (and sleeper backup Dan Herron) are more likely to help your fantasy team semi-consistenly. T-Rich is merely a hole for other drafters to stumble into.

Sleeper: Marqise Lee, 15.1. Rookies often infect owners with a phenomenon R.C. Fisher calls "Rookie Derangement Syndrome" (1); basically, as owners, we over-absorb useless information about buzzing rookies, which builds into an almost religious faith in their potential based on absolute vapidity. Their prices rise, and inevitably, their production falls far short of both their market value and our expectations (see my last piece on Sammy Watkins for an example of RDS in action). I've explained this phenomenon to point out Marqise Lee's current situation as its near-polar opposite, something I am tentatively calling the Keenan Allen Effect. Much like Allen, Lee's draft stock plummeted due to a leg injury and unimpressive Combine measures, yet finds himself in a year-one starting situation on a lowly-regarded team that has shown it may actually be on the rise. For pennies, Lee has an outside chance to be the next zero-to-hero fantasy starter. He finds himself as, at worst, the #2 target in Jacksonville, and considering Cecil Shorts' injury history, could easily take the lion's share at any point in the year. Add in past stat precedent as the big Z receiver in Jax (Justin Blackmon, anyone?) and the major defensive weaknesses that pepper the AFC South, and Lee's potential seems higher this year than most other rookies going before him. He's absolutely a perennial flier target of mine.

Bust: Lamar Miller, 7.5. Like T-Rich, Miller carries a ton of fantasy hype with him coming into the year, much of it carrying over from last year's catastrophe in Miami. He enters the year as the de-facto starter, thanks to Knowshon Moreno's knee scope, and Bill Lazor has crowned him the heir to his LeSean McCoy plays. Unfortunately, Miller suffers from what I can only surmise is an allergy to bodies. He runs soft, avoiding contact whenever possible, and plays more like a straight-line scatback than a true starting RB. He also still has shown some trouble with his blocking assignments, blowing a handful of blitzes in the preseason; with the state the Dolphins' line is in, pass protection has to be a priority skill for their starter to possess lest Ryan Tannehill develop shell-shock. Very recently, coach Joe Philbin gave a vote of confidence to the finally-healthy Moreno, opening the door for him to take the reins as the leader of their inevitable backfield committee. Moreno runs a bit better than Miller, has better hands, and always picks up his blocks; it's why he won the job in Denver, and it's why the Fins paid him to be their RB. Like last year, Miller has huge bust potential, except he's not a victim of coaching incompetence this time (bye, Daniel Thomas), but in danger of legitimately losing his job to a better-suited player. Hence, I see no reason behind his current draft slot aside from lingering misplaced optimism.

Bust: Wes Welker, 6.7. This entry is a bit odd for me. I completely believe in Welker's ability and the opportunity Denver's offense creates for him, especially after having lost Eric Decker's touchdowns and targets from last year. Welker could easily find himself in the top fifteen WRs by year's end, and higher in PPR. However, much like everyone else in the industry, I am terrified of that man's cerebral health. Three concussions in the last year (plus however many more he's suffered over his long career than maybe he doesn't even know about), as well as his position in the slot making him the most susceptible to further head injury of any other receiving position, makes me almost sick to my stomach for his future. I mentioned in an earlier article that I feel Welker must put his health first or risk his grey matter turning to literal mush, and I stand by it. Unfortunately, that decision may be made for him this season; one more solid knock across the middle of the field, and he may finally be forced to retire. Concussion-prone players perennially appear on my do-not-draft list regardless of their age and history, but Welker's situation crosses the line into legitimate medical concern for a person. Take a shot on him if you must, before a safety does. As a result of my belief in Welker's impending injuries, the next sleeper is...

Sleeper: Cody Latimer, undrafted. If Welker misses any time this year, the relatively small (five-foot-eleven, 180 pounds) Emmanuel Sanders must slide into his role in the slot, allowing Cody Latimer a chance at starting on the outside. Latimer stands at six-foot-two, ran a sub-4.4 40 on a broken foot, and comes from a basketball background; in short, he's the prototypical "new-NFL" prospect. His catch radius, soft hands, and ability to lock out corners all contributed to his rise into the late second round where Elway snatched him. Having worked with the first-team offense for a decent chunk of the offseason, Latimer's value to the team as a future outside started shines. As I mentioned, this offense could make anyone look dominant, as Sanders showed in his last preseason game, making Latimer's prospects even more enticing. Most of the weaknesses scouts mentioned involved his struggles against athletic corners and subpar after-the-catch ability, but neither would really affect him if he ends up in the starting rotation. Most secondaries will be forced to drape on Demaryius and Julius Thomas, while most of the up-front personnel will undoubtedly try to rattle Manning in the same way the Seahawks did in the Super Bowl, leaving Latimer to fend off second corners and maybe a deep safety at most. I would never hope for an injury to a player, especially not one as at-risk as Welker, but keeping an eye on Latimer is merely hedging your bets on the large odds that he misses time.

UPDATE: Welker's been suspended four games for taking molly at a horse race. Bump Latimer and Sanders up, and keep an eye on Andre Caldwell too.

Bonus Bust: Tavon Austin, 12.10. This is cheating, I understand, but this pick still baffles me. Why are people even wasting any draft capital on Austin outside of return-yardage leagues? He's buried on the depth chart of a run-first team trotting out Shaun Still-In-The-League Hill behind center. Austin creates a dead spot on almost any bench, except for the one week late in the year when he blows up and owners kick themselves for leaving 25 points on the bench. Then they start him the next week hoping for a repeat and he provides his patented "fuck-you" goose egg. Note that none of this comes from bias, as I've never owned Austin nor do I have anything against him. Rostering him just flies in the face of everything I put my fantasy stock into.

--Lucio Leone