Offender: Vernon Davis, ADP 5.9/TE 4
Arbitrage All-Stars: Greg Olsen 8.2, Dennis Pitta 8.9, Kyle Rudolph 9.1
Deep Cut: Zach Ertz 10.4
Before we get into any discussion, note the curious absence of the Jordans, both Cameron and Reed. Anyone who drafted with me last year knows my love for Cameron is second only to Percy Harvin, and Reed's performance last year opened my eyes to the potential that exists in Washington's offense. In my opinion, the two can easily outpace Davis this season, but come with a few caveats: Cameron's ADP is a handful of spots below Davis', making him ripe to be picked in the same round if not earlier and thus not offering a significantly different return on investment, while Reed's concussion issues over his career and Gruden's misuse of past young TE phenoms have made me extremely wary of paying the price he commands (7.5). Since I don't look at rankings in this study as much as tangible value, I've left these two off the list. Just know that if you're willing to shell out a few more bucks for either of them over Davis, that's your prerogative, but your wallet had better support the weight. As a broke recent college grad currently dodging my loan payments like Strahan dodges alimony, I prefer to save where I can.
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| Arguably the most famous of my fellow alumni |
Vernon Davis finished, in a move I didn't see coming, as the second-best TE last year, a gold star to add to his already-strong fantasy pedigree. As the most athletic receiver on the team, he served as the playmaker, seam-stretcher, and primary red zone option. Anquan Boldin's age and role as intermediate-slot man, as well as Michael Crabtree's lost year, allowed Davis to soak in targets and thrive on the mismatches he creates. His 13.5 fantasy points per game without Michael Crabtree ranked 4th overall, behind the completely expected Jimmy, Julius, and Gronk. However, a part of that sentence should leap off the page and offend your senses: without Michael Crabtree. Crabtree's return steers me furthest away from Davis at his price. Looking at his production over the past two years both with and without Crabtree on the field, Davis' numbers go from admirable to vomitous. Averaging under eight FPPG, under three catches per game, and under half a touchdown, Davis' place on the hierarchy clearly ranks below Crabhands. Kaepernick looks for his WR1 early and often, and if last year's trends continue, he'll also look towards Boldin underneath before Davis. This is ignoring the other additions in Steve Johnson and Brandon Lloyd San Francisco made this spring. Glossing over his other rankings, Davis posted a touchdown rate of twenty-five percent; in other words, statistically, he could score on a quarter of his touches. A quick googling points out that only Mike Ditka has surpassed that rate, in his lowest-usage year. In other words, that rate is completely unsustainable, yet inflates his draft stock on expectations of a repeat performance. Meanwhile, in the offseason coaching staff migrations, a few TE-friendly situations have been bestowed upon young, athletic, reliable pass-catchers; most of them have been solid in the past and thus are priced quite low, yet they all now have a chance to leave their projections in the dust and challenge the fantasy TE pantheon.
Name three receivers on the Panthers off the top of your head. No internet allowed. I guarantee Greg Olsen appeared on eighty percent of those lists, if not more. Yes, it's a tired narrative, but there's no avoiding the fact that Cam Newton, outside of Olsen, has at his disposal a raw jump-ball rookie, two running backs made of puffed rice, and a bunch of "literally-who" journeymen. Realistically, Olsen will lead the team in targets, and should be Cam's first and second reads whenever he drops back. During his time down south, Olsen's production has been solid-not-spectacular, but he's always been a top-ten TE, and built a good connection with Cam over the years as a go-to intermediate man. If Mike Shula has half a brain (jury is still out), the Panthers will keep Olsen on the field at all times, to ensure both his great run-blocking and pass-catching chops are always available. I can see Olsen right on the fence of top-five at the position if everything falls into place, and potentially higher in PPR. Even more encouraging, the sheer volume he will absorb raises his week-to-week floor a decent amount, potentially making him the safest and most consistent TE for the price.
Speaking of potential team target leaders, Dennis Pitta's engine is poised to redline. Camp reports have been overwhelmingly positive for Pitta after breaking his hip last year, ensuring his health and athleticism returned. As I explained in volume I, the Ravens' offensive woes qualified as X-rated material some weeks, too disgusting for network television. Part of the problem stemmed from a lack of underneath options for Joe Flacco, following the loss of both Boldin and Pitta; the latter, according to every Ravens beat writer last year, affected Flacco's game deeply, robbing him of a security valve he'd come to depend on under pressure. Baltimore beat writers have likened Flacco and Pitta's rapport to the bromance-caliber connection of Cutler-Marshall, and we all know how fantastically that's been going since Marshall returned to the Windy City. One of my favorite player quotes on Sound FX comes from the inimitable Terrell Suggs, mic'd up on the sidelines during a tilt with San Francisco, exclaiming, “The white tight end! He’s American Express! He’s everywhere you want to be!” (The quote comes around 1:20, but the whole video is worth watching because of T-Sizzle.) Beyond his return to the field (and the waiting arms of his heterosexual life partner) fully healthy, the shift to Gary Kubiak's system has me optimistic about Pitta's possibilities this year. Kubiak brings in a focus on the position, allowing athletic TEs like Pitta to abuse mismatches similar to those that have benefitted Davis. All these projections for Baltimore skill-positions come from an expectation that their offense will improve, one I completely buy into. Hopefully my optimism is rewarded, but I doubt it's much of a stretch to think lots of cheap production can come out of the Ravens this year.
Similar to Pitta's high-upside coaching situation is the fantastic place Kyle Rudolph has found himself in. I've been a proponent of the young player for a handful of seasons now, lamenting his criminal underuse in the pass game in favor of blocking the typical 25-man fronts Adrian Peterson faces. Hence, I felt a paragraph and wittily-captioned photo alone would not do him justice, so please enjoy this musical interlude.
I spent a decent amount of time penning a spoof song just to extol how good I feel about Rudolph. He's proven himself as a highly capable cog in Minnesota's offense over the past few years, but between Christian Ponder rocketing passes into the dirt, and Bill Musgrave ignoring his presence, Rudolph hasn't put up the numbers to back anything up. Enter Norval Turner, tight end whisperer; if history is anything to go by, Norval saw the Vikings offense, and lit up like a kid in a toy store, with beams of joy pointed right at Rudolph. The subject has been beaten to death, but Norv has a storied history of producing elite TEs, his most recent study being the aforementioned Jordan Cameron, who finished as the #4 TE in arguably a far less capable offense. Now, Norv has a near-clone of Cameron, plus a real run game and potentially better quarterback to play with. If Pitta was AmEx, I expect Rudolph to be the Visa Black. Pick your breakout contender and reap the rewards come championship weekend.
Finally, we reach deep into the shadowed recesses of the TE barrel, and pull out a holographic Zach Ertz card. Ertz consistently ranks outside top-12 projections at the position, as everyone lets their Lardarius Green and Eric Ebron crushes get the best of them. I find it ridiculous to write off a camp star that was rated the only other first-round TE of his class and now gets to fill in for some of Desean Jackson's lost production, especially compared to a struggling rookie and a greenhorn sharing snaps with one of the all-time greats. The Eagles offense was, if I recall correctly, the second-fastest offense in the league last year, trailing only the historically-dominant Denver Peytons. Chip Kelley coaxed career years out of every skill-position player outside of Brent Celek, who served more as a blocker, and Jeremy Maclin, who was on the shelf. Almost every time someone queries abouts the major beneficiary of D-Jax's departure, the typical response from players, coaches, and beat writers is Ertz. Comfortably entrenched as the move TE (the "Aaron Hernandez role," in other words), and arguably the best athlete of the players he will compete against for the lion's share of Jackson's touches (Maclin and Darren Sproles), Ertz's ceiling almost couldn't be higher. Even Celek's continued spot on the depth chart helps, as it means Ertz will never be asked to block exclusively on a series. I know I sound like a parrot, constantly bringing this point up, but Ertz can be moved around to create mismatches, and therein lies the strength of the position.
Many pundits will prattle on about the relative shallowness of the TE position in fantasy this year, extolling Jimmy, Gronk, Orange Julius and the Jordans exclusively, but I peer below the surface and see some great potential that can be had on the cheap. Marrying athleticism/skill with great scheming handily maximizes what a TE can produce for your team, possibly more than any other skill position. If your roster can handle it, taking a shot on one of these dollar-store substitutes may just give you an edge over someone who blew their whole wad vying for last-years stats.
--Lucio Leone
Name three receivers on the Panthers off the top of your head. No internet allowed. I guarantee Greg Olsen appeared on eighty percent of those lists, if not more. Yes, it's a tired narrative, but there's no avoiding the fact that Cam Newton, outside of Olsen, has at his disposal a raw jump-ball rookie, two running backs made of puffed rice, and a bunch of "literally-who" journeymen. Realistically, Olsen will lead the team in targets, and should be Cam's first and second reads whenever he drops back. During his time down south, Olsen's production has been solid-not-spectacular, but he's always been a top-ten TE, and built a good connection with Cam over the years as a go-to intermediate man. If Mike Shula has half a brain (jury is still out), the Panthers will keep Olsen on the field at all times, to ensure both his great run-blocking and pass-catching chops are always available. I can see Olsen right on the fence of top-five at the position if everything falls into place, and potentially higher in PPR. Even more encouraging, the sheer volume he will absorb raises his week-to-week floor a decent amount, potentially making him the safest and most consistent TE for the price.
Speaking of potential team target leaders, Dennis Pitta's engine is poised to redline. Camp reports have been overwhelmingly positive for Pitta after breaking his hip last year, ensuring his health and athleticism returned. As I explained in volume I, the Ravens' offensive woes qualified as X-rated material some weeks, too disgusting for network television. Part of the problem stemmed from a lack of underneath options for Joe Flacco, following the loss of both Boldin and Pitta; the latter, according to every Ravens beat writer last year, affected Flacco's game deeply, robbing him of a security valve he'd come to depend on under pressure. Baltimore beat writers have likened Flacco and Pitta's rapport to the bromance-caliber connection of Cutler-Marshall, and we all know how fantastically that's been going since Marshall returned to the Windy City. One of my favorite player quotes on Sound FX comes from the inimitable Terrell Suggs, mic'd up on the sidelines during a tilt with San Francisco, exclaiming, “The white tight end! He’s American Express! He’s everywhere you want to be!” (The quote comes around 1:20, but the whole video is worth watching because of T-Sizzle.) Beyond his return to the field (and the waiting arms of his heterosexual life partner) fully healthy, the shift to Gary Kubiak's system has me optimistic about Pitta's possibilities this year. Kubiak brings in a focus on the position, allowing athletic TEs like Pitta to abuse mismatches similar to those that have benefitted Davis. All these projections for Baltimore skill-positions come from an expectation that their offense will improve, one I completely buy into. Hopefully my optimism is rewarded, but I doubt it's much of a stretch to think lots of cheap production can come out of the Ravens this year.
Similar to Pitta's high-upside coaching situation is the fantastic place Kyle Rudolph has found himself in. I've been a proponent of the young player for a handful of seasons now, lamenting his criminal underuse in the pass game in favor of blocking the typical 25-man fronts Adrian Peterson faces. Hence, I felt a paragraph and wittily-captioned photo alone would not do him justice, so please enjoy this musical interlude.
Rudolph the Red-Zone Reindeer,
Had a scattershot QB,
But even worse than that was
His wholly uninspired OC.
Rudolph could make the catches
And take a catch-and-run with ease,
But half of his passes shot out
Of the planet's stratosphere.
Then one week, post-Black Monday,
Norval came to say,
Rudolph, with your end so tight,
Won't you guide my offense tonight?
Now he has sky-high potential,
And a shiny new QB, (Hip-hooray!)
Rudolph the Red-Zone Reindeer,
Could dominate in fantasy!
I spent a decent amount of time penning a spoof song just to extol how good I feel about Rudolph. He's proven himself as a highly capable cog in Minnesota's offense over the past few years, but between Christian Ponder rocketing passes into the dirt, and Bill Musgrave ignoring his presence, Rudolph hasn't put up the numbers to back anything up. Enter Norval Turner, tight end whisperer; if history is anything to go by, Norval saw the Vikings offense, and lit up like a kid in a toy store, with beams of joy pointed right at Rudolph. The subject has been beaten to death, but Norv has a storied history of producing elite TEs, his most recent study being the aforementioned Jordan Cameron, who finished as the #4 TE in arguably a far less capable offense. Now, Norv has a near-clone of Cameron, plus a real run game and potentially better quarterback to play with. If Pitta was AmEx, I expect Rudolph to be the Visa Black. Pick your breakout contender and reap the rewards come championship weekend.
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| Holographic Charizard has nothing on this |
Many pundits will prattle on about the relative shallowness of the TE position in fantasy this year, extolling Jimmy, Gronk, Orange Julius and the Jordans exclusively, but I peer below the surface and see some great potential that can be had on the cheap. Marrying athleticism/skill with great scheming handily maximizes what a TE can produce for your team, possibly more than any other skill position. If your roster can handle it, taking a shot on one of these dollar-store substitutes may just give you an edge over someone who blew their whole wad vying for last-years stats.
--Lucio Leone
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