To recap some of my notes from last week...
Torrey Smith: My bad. Torrey looks to be running predominantly as the Z receiver in Kubiak's offense, more aptly called the "Kevin Walter" role, which is a veritable fantasy wasteland. Theoretically, the staff felt Steve Smith's route-running and body control fit the X position better, which I can understand; while he's worked hard on it this offseason, Torrey's route tree has always been his weakness, and Smitty is the counterpoint to his abilities at this stage in their careers. Efficiency has eluded Smitty so far this season, sporting only 13 catches on 25 targets to go with five drops. Omitting his fluky broken play TD in week one holds him to around 110 yards gained, which falls right in line with the decline most people have seen from him for the past couple of years. Torrey's been bottled up so far by defenses, forcing the Ravens to beat them with Smith, Pitta, and their assumedly-dysfunctional ground game (which isn't a weakness after all! Go figure). While I believe it's the right way for defenses to attack the Ravens, it makes for fantasy garbage. I say hold on to Torrey for one more week if your bench is generous, but if he continues to run in the Z, junk him.
Carson Palmer and Knowshon Moreno: As I mentioned above, a ton of premier fantasy men went down this week, and these two were felt pretty hard. Drew Stanton, as Palmer's backup, sailed balls out of number-one catcher Mike Floyd's reach, checking down to Larry Fitzgerald constantly. Moreno dislocated his elbow before his knees could inevitably give out, giving him plenty of time to rest and rehab some more. Palmer's return will be lauded by anyone who owns a Cardinals player outside of Andre Ellington, while those who took a shot on Lamar Miller's twice-derailed hype train may have gotten a third life (Miller tweaked his ankle against the Bills, but shout return to action next week).
Jeremy Hill: The HueJax Bengals live up to their coach's pedigree, running their offense through Gio Bernard and Hill. Between the two of them, and a few Dalton designed runs, the Bengals ran the ball 45 times, and Hill toted 15 of them. He was trusted with a few red zone and goal-line touches as well, which matters hugely on a day where Gio touched the ball over 30 times. Part of this trend came from AJ Green's untimely departure early, and part of it came from a plan to attack the Falcons' dearth of a run defense, but both backs came in as big parts of the game script regardless. Hill will eat this season as a much more explosive and shifty version of last year's BJGE, and should cement himself as a respectable RB2 in the coming weeks.
Bobby Rainey: Wow. I said last week I loved the kid when he was drafted, and this week handily illustrated the reason: 170 yards on 25 touches (and what should have been an easy TD if not for McCown jogging like Ganondorf from Super Smash Bros. into the endzone twice). Selling high seemed like the right thing to do last week, and admittedly Doug was a very late scratch which points to his health being only a minor concern. Many pundits, however, are rumbling about the possibility of Rainey stealing Dougie's job with two great performances so far, compared to the latter's absolutely dreadful showing. Perhaps stashing him will prove wiser than it seemed before.
The Cleveland backfield: Both Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell had good days in the Browns' home opener, carrying the team to a huge upset over the Saints. West, by no means a special talent, sports more polish and a better game all-around than the electric Crowell, at one point mauling a would-be tackler on his way to the end zone; hence, he should run as the starter for however long Tate is out for (which seems to be until the middle of October). I still believe, for the true long-term (e.g. dynasty leagues or if/when Tate gets hurt again), Crowell deserves the starting nod, however. With how much the Browns are running, and more importantly, how effective their scheme has been so far, both can be startable depending on one's roster and circumstances for now.
On to this week's notes....
On to this week's notes....
Stock Up
Bernard Pierce dug himself out of the hole he wallowed in during Baltimore's short week to reclaim starting duties in the backfield, and put up 100 total yards as gratitude en route to a commanding win over the Steelers. After a good preseason, Pierce looked somewhat stiff on Thursday night, but the talent and burst we saw in his rookie year peeked out on a few late runs. He proved himself as the lead dog in the committee with Forsett and the more suitable zone-blocking scheme RB, while Forsett settles in as a big-play scatback and pass catcher.
Khiry Robinson may have gotten his chance to live up to the offseason buzz after all. Mark Ingram suffered a hand injury in the Saints' defeat on Sunday and will miss at least one month, thrusting him into the early-down back role. Ingram's injury is absolutely tragic for a perennial underachiever who looked like he finally put the pieces together, derailing his breakout but putting Khiry's on the fast track. The second-year back showed well as a rookie, and can be counted on to shoulder Ingram's load. Sean Payton has made good on his promise to establish the run more thus far, gifting Robinson a solid fantasy floor and a respectable helping of red-zone looks.
Delanie Walker paced all tight ends not named Jimmy in scoring this weekend, burning bright in his strong connection with Jake Locker. Granted, he torched Dallas' junior varsity defense, but Walker has long carried an unfair just-a-blocker label thanks to his misuse in San Francisco. He runs like a train, taking a bit of time to build up long speed but barreling either past or over anything that wants to stop him, and his mitts are vise-like cricket bats. Coming off a career year (his first in Tennessee) and under the tutelage of Ken Whisenhunt, Walker looks like a solid bet to rise to the rank of every-week TE1.
Stock Down
Shonn Greene, on the flip side of the Titans, looked exactly like himself against the 'Boys: slow, indecisive, and generally boring. Against a defense sporting one of the worst front-sevens in the league, Greene did more harm than good to his tenuous hold on the starting job. Bishop Sankey ran quite well behind him, having risen to number two on the backfield depth chart now, and may have expedited his eventual seizure of the starting job. Greene looked like a solid fantasy start for a handful of weeks coming into the season, but his vile performance against Dallas may have demolished the last few chances he had at being an NFL starter.
Toby Gerhart, speaking of slow backs, is who we thought he was. More Tonka truck than battering ram, Gerhart posted 1.1 yards per carry against an equally-poor Washington run defense and only reeled in two passes. His appeal during draft season was his place as one of the few three-down backs left in the league, which we hoped would mitigate his talent deficiencies. Unfortunately. Jacksonville looks just as bad as ever, prone to falling behind and abandoning the run; worse, their offensive line couldn't run-block for LT, let alone a subpar plodder like Toby Time.
Robert Griffin, if you live under a rock, folded his ankle like an origami crane on Sunday, dislocating it in the process. Luckily, he avoided a fracture, and should be able to return by November if his rehab stays on track. Unfortunately, Jay Gruden now has a valid reason to throw support behind his prototypical pocket passer backup Kirk Cousins, who fits Gruden's scheme much better than the woefully-misused Griffin. If Cousins can build on his positive performance from last week (he led the league in average yards per attempt at 12.2 since week one), Gruden may hand him the keys and relegate RG3 to backup duties "for health and safety reasons." Gruden's stubborn attempt to force RG3 into a scheme he doesn't fit riles me a bit, in the process illustrating how unfit he is to coach a team, but it just might bless Griffin with a ticket out of D.C. and into the welcoming arms of a better-run organization. For now, Bobby Three-Sticks' bounce-back season goes back in the bin to wait for more accommodating circumstances.
Buy Low
Keenan Allen saw two weeks of down production due to horrid matchups coming out of the gate. He posted a respectable 5-55 on Sunday, juking Richard Sherman out of his shoes in the process (you mad, bro?), but still got little room against the Legion of Boom. Many owners may be scowling at his spot on the bench right now, especially after most likely spending a third or fourth-rounder on him; take advantage of the week's carnage and scoop him up for pennies. He plays in the nearly-defenseless AFC West, draws matchups against the equally-struggling AFCN and NFCW, gets to go against Peyton and Friends twice, and has a relatively soft playoff schedule. Don't be afraid of the geezer squad of Antonio Gates and Malcolm Floyd, as they've already shown they can command enough defensive attention to open Keenan up more than last year, letting him use his fantastic body control to catch every ball Rivers slings his way.
Eddie Lacy was a tough add to the buy-lows this week due to the difficulty prying him away from owners entails, but for two weeks in a row he's had the same problems as Allen: terrible matchups tanking his market value. Lacy has one of the highest ceilings of the top-ten RBs (at this point, probably only behind DeMarco Murray and LeSean McCoy) and is in an absolutely wonderful scheme. It may take some prodding, but the work put into rostering him will pay off without a shadow of a doubt. If you get him, make sure to engrave "JellyRoll Tide" on your league trophy when you inevitably hoist it as thanks to the Football Buddha.
Pierre Garcon has a soft spot in my heart, as one of my favorite free-agent-turned-number-one-wideout prospects in years. Coming into this season, I said he was a prime candidate to be overdrafted due to recency bias from his huge 2013 season and the additions of Desean Jackson and Andre Roberts eating into his targets. He still probably won't touch last year, but with news of RG3's ankle injury, he's trending up. Garcon, in 2 starts with Cousins last year, posted 1 point per game more on average than with RG3 in standard leagues, and more in PPR. He's running lots of high-percentage, YAC routes in Gruden's scheme, in what looks to be a hybrid of the roles AJ Green and Marvin Jones played. DJax will continue to be a big-play threat, but Cousins' arm is not a cannon like Griffin's and his reads are far less preemptive; he's shown to be more apt to checking down or throwing the intermediate routes. Niles Paul put up huge numbers this week, partly due to his existing rapport with Cousins, but in light of Gruden's historically poor use of tight ends, I expect the targets to even out and funnel more towards Garcon. To me, DJax remains steady regardless of the QB change, but Garcon (and Alf and Helu) are more likely to benefit from the switch.
Sell High
Matt Asiata got the start in the wake of All Day's controversy-fueled deactivation, and put up some inflated numbers against an oddly-porous New England ground defense. AP has been reinstated but almost definitely faces a suspension, giving Asiata another run with the starters in the future. Granted, Alex recently pointed out the truth that "a starting rb (with what is supposed to be a run first system) is better than a committee guy or backup no matter what their talent level is," but Asiata may be the age-old exception to every rule. Take a look at his athletics plot here. It looks worse than a dying chrysanthemum; I'm honestly convinced I may be more agile than him. To add to his bustability, Norval has shown little objection to utilizing Flash Patterson as a scatback, a role he's shown to be a natural fit for. Jerrick McKinnon, the nominal number three RB and absurdly talented rookie, also saw the field for almost half of the snaps the Vikings ran on Sunday. While I try to give credence to the disconnect between real-life usefulness to coaches and fantasy GM upside searching (all those Taiwan Jones shares are collecting dust from last year's bench mob), McKinnon and Flash offer far too much ability to the Vikes over Asiata's truly plodding style. Sell his numbers off potentially his best game of the season.
Sammy Watkins looked the part of a top-ten draft pick for the Bills this weekend, dropping 117-1 on a hapless Fins D and building a decent connection with EJ Manuel. Two things give me pause about Sammy's season-long usefulness, though. First, he's shown he collects quite a few nicks and bruises playing the game, and has been playing hurt almost entirely since draft day. I personally try to steer clear of wideouts who pick up a bunch of small injuries, as they accumulate very quickly and threaten productivity. Second, EJ is not a good quarterback. Period. He's shown little growth from last year, still staring down his reads and being absolutely blind to pressure (on Sunday he Hellen-Keller'd his way right into Cameron Wake's welcoming arms). Due to the uncertainty surrounding the Bills' passing offense, Watkins will be an incredibly unreliable and streaky fantasy option a la Mike Wallace in Pittsburgh, blowing up on your bench one week and giggling from behind a 2-17 the next. There are better options out there, and this week gives his owners a chance to get some value back from the assumedly high price they paid to draft him.
Waiver Watch
Damien Williams played a healthy amount of snaps after Moreno went down against the Bills, toting the rock five times and seeing a target. If the Fins weren't behind by like a jillion points, he most likely would have seen a few more carries and maybe even a goal-line touch. He's right behind Lamar Miller in the backfield now, and has been a favorite of some fantasy draftniks all offseason (built well at 5-11 and 221). Miller has fumbled multiple opportunities to lock down the starting job in Miami, due to his wildly inconsistent ability and soft running style, cracking the door open for Williams to take over Moreno's role between the tackles. Bill Lazor has slathered his run game with affection thus far and schemes with his backs in mind, which would make for solid production from Williams.
Mohamed Sanu is performing well in relief of Marvin Jones so far, taking on the expanded workload Jones was expected to before his foot broke. Even better for him, AJ Green suffered a strained ligament in his toe and may not be able to play until Cincy comes out of their bye in week five. Sanu steps in as the de-facto top wideout, and probably the second receiver overall (behind the Nard Dog). Pick him up to soften any tough flex decisions you may see for a few weeks, or sell him to Green's now-destitute owners for a song. He might even sling the ball better than Ginger Avenger Dalton.
Davante Adams may have wrenched the torch from Jarrett Boykin's grip sooner than we expected. Boykin caught only one pass against the invisible Jets secondary this weekend, and dropped an easy pass in the end zone. He was promptly benched for Adams, who went 5-50 on the day. As many will tell you, whoever catches passes in Green Bay deserves a roster spot, and Adams has the talent and draft pedigree to bury JAG Boykin for good. Expect a rotation in the short term to give way to Adams as a permanent number 3 WR if the trend continues. As a side note, for anyone in keeper or dynasty leagues, it is IMPERATIVE you roster Adams if he is somehow on the wire; all of GB's starting wideouts behind Jordy Nelson are in contract years and likely will not be on the team next year. Many pundits expect Adams to take on Randall Cobb's old role with my mancrush Jeff Janis playing on the outside, making them immediate WR2 candidates for years to come.
--Lucio Leone
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