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Thursday, September 25, 2014

Week 3 Fantasy Report: The Bye Weeks Are Coming, The Bye Weeks Are Coming

We're on the precipice, folks: the time of year that separates fantasy boys and girls from hulking muscly beasts of fake majesty. Bye weeks add a major layer of skill to roster construction and the waiver game, allowing the cream to separate from the chaff. I've penned a more extensive look at this week's bye replacements, which you can find below this article. For now, let's jump back into the usual routine and look at some notable fantasy trends from week three.



Stock Up

Travis Kelce's snap counts have risen steadily over the past few weeks, starting at around 30% in week one to his current peak of 67% this past Sunday. He's rewarded Andy Reid's Chiefs with almost 200 yards and a score on 10 catches, a fantastic number for what is essentially a redshirt tight end's rookie season. I am admittedly a huge proponent of Kelce's, ever since he was drafted; he was definitely the most athletically-gifted TE of his year, and could grow to be the best one. If he's still on your wire somehow, snatch him up, 'cause he's a rising star, and can easily step in for all you heartbroken Pitta/Rudolph owners.

Alright, Lamar Miller, I see you. A week after showing the same pedestrian game that's become his calling card, I urged owners to seek out the services of UDFA power back Damien Williams as their Knowshon Moreno replacement. Looks like those services may not be required: Miller dropped 132 yards on an ailing Chiefs defense and probably would have done even better if not for the reemergence of Daniel Thomas, Miami's recurring wart. His blazing speed and twitchiness stole the show, and may be putting it all together after having squandered so many other chances. Until Knowshon returns, Miller may have the backfield truly all to himself.

Stock Down

Torrey Smith is now officially droppable in my opinion. I've spilled enough e-ink about his potential to this point, and seeing him on the field, he actually looks to have regressed a bit as a route-runner. A definite square peg in Kubiak's round hole (HA), Smith may truly embody our game's new Godot, leaving owners to patiently wait and watch their league pass them by.

Buy Low

Matt Forte represents this week's tough-yet-feasible RB that can be had on the cheap. Forte's year has taken a major downturn after stinging Buffalo in the season opener, posting only 112 total yards over the past two games; he also hasn't found paydirt yet, putting further strain on his owners currently entering bye-week crunches. However, as with most RBs, matchups and game script have played a big factor in both, with the Bears falling behind very early to the 49ers in week two and going against the Jets' disgusting front 7 on Monday. He still has to square off with Carolina and will eventually see Detroit twice, but he's Matt Friggin' Forte, there's a reason his last name translates to "strong." Take advantage of that new scab his owner sports and start picking at it until they admit enough is enough and dump their first-rounder on you for some win-now fodder.

Toby Time! Well, maybe not really; last week, I called Gerhart a Tonka truck running behind what looks to be an offensive line made of tinfoil, and I stand by that sentiment. However, there's a new sheriff in town, and his name may be the whitest of any player currently in the league: Blake Bortles. The Jags have given him the keys to the offense, and he showed off tastes of what he can offer in terms of rounding out the team. With Bortles under center, defenses must respect Jacksonville's air game, giving Toby some running room and potentially giving the him some more scoring opportunities. Plus, their offense might now keep pace with their opponent's, allowing them to establish the run.

Sell High

Terrance West, I salute you. You run hard, get what's blocked, and kept me competitive in games I absolutely should have lost. And for that, I send you to trade block. Not a very honorable way to cut ties, but West has inflated his value to its peak at this point. Performing well in relief of Ben Tate, West will inevitable head back to number two on the depth chart when Tate returns in week five. His health certainly isn't something to gamble on, so why sell West? Well, someone regular readers may know pretty well by now is breathing down both RBs' necks: Isaiah Crowell. Crowell has been absolutely electric in the split Cleveland backfield, proving on tape both why he has five stars next to his name and that he fits Shanny Junior's scheme the best of any back on the roster. Beat writers are calling for Crowell to touch the rock more and more each week, agreeing with what everyone can plainly see. Move West now, while he's on bye, and get in on the ground floor of the next phenom benefactor of Ben Tate's next injury.


Waiver Watch

Lorenzo Taliaferro had a big debut as the starter in Baltimore, going 18-91-1 against a decent-if-unspectacular Cleveland defense. He showed the kind of burst you'd expect from a rookie, but appeared to see holes and cutback lanes at a far higher frequency than Bernard Pierce has in years (spoilers: THAT'S IMPORTANT FOR A ZONE-BLOCKING SCHEME). I've been high on LoLo since he went to Baltimore, and even before the Ricepocalypse I expected him to make a run at the position of chairman of the backfield. His tape will be studied for countless hours by the coaching staff as they evaluate what to do with this new wrinkle, but if things inch his way even slightly, he may have 60-70% of the carries in his near future.

Garret Graham returns! The greenhorn Houston TE could not have picked a better time to reenter the fold in Houston, with Arian Foster's hamstring nagging him about retirement and TEs dropping like flies around the league. Graham has proven to be at least a competent pass-catcher and should find himself on the receiving end (that's a pun, you see) of a ton of Ryan Fitzpatrick's typical dumpoffs. If your TE corps is in dire straits, put him on your speed dial.

 --Lucio Leone

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