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Monday, August 25, 2014

Preseason Trends and Exhibition Injury Pointlessness

Preseason football, more than any other organized sport, exists mostly as a risk-riddled cash grab. I love watching young hopefuls climb their respective depth charts and analyzing backup players, which ostensibly gives the preseason its purpose; but when coaches claim to force their starters to play in exhibition games as punishment, there's something very wrong with the practice. A rash of serious injuries have taken down some of the more important players in the league to this point, affecting both reality and fantasy. Without firing off yet another rant against the waste of time we call the preseason, I'd like to go over some notable injuries and how they may affect building your roster.


As an opening note, if you have any connection to sports media, you must know how most pundits feel about the current policing of illegal contact. Considered a response to the Seahawks' Super Bowl win last year having come from a rash of missed penalties, refs are policing cornerbacks, linebackers, and safeties with more fervor thus far. While I doubt this trend will be anywhere close to meaningful for the regular season, it's still worth mentioning, as it puts even more emphasis on the air game and could force QBs to just throw up a bomb to a covered receiver more often, in hopes of scoring a chunk of penalty yardage. In terms of fantasy, it's just another bit of importance added to WRs and seam-stretching TEs.

Wes Welker and Bernard Pierce both suffered head injuries in their last friendlies. Pierce was on the receiving end of a thump from eternal scumbag Brandon Meriweather, who will undoubtedly face a league fine. Pierce's injury never qualified as a concussion, and he's already been cleared for the season opener. Plug him in, but keep an eye on young phenom Lorenzo Taliaferro, who performed well in his stead. Welker, on the other hand, officially picked up another concussion, his third in less than a year. Week one may not be feasible for the slot machine, but apparently he's looking like a good bet to play this season. Personally, I believe he must place his health and future before his obviously-dwindling career; the man's had enough brain trauma to make banana mush of a lesser human. Welker never found himself on my fantasy radar for this reason, and now more than ever, I hope he retires before putting his body and mind at risk again.

Darnell Dockett tore his ACL early in the month, delivering yet another blow to Cardinals defense trending straight down. Already missing Daryl Washington and Karlos Dansby, and waiting on bated breath for the Honey Badger to return from blowing out his knee, Arizona's run defense is looking mighty shaky, especially compared to the number-one stop unit they were last season. Throwing on them may still be hard with Pat Peterson and Antonio Cromartie patrolling the back end, but running in the desert should no longer be feared. Notable backs facing them early this year I now feel better about starting include Ryan Mathews, Frank Gore, and Alf Morris. Tread with caution early on, but I doubt there's a need to fear the Cards on the ground now.

Glenn Dorsey recently tore his bicep and will be out for the year. San Francisco's defense now finds itself in a similar spot to Arizona's, with suspensions and injuries forcing them down the board. While their stud linebackers aren't all lost for the season, they cannot lean on a prime secondary in the interim like the birds can, and must rely more than ever on pressure up front. Hence, they've morphed into another no-longer-feared fantasy defense, especially on the ground (at least early in the year); don't be afraid to consider starting Andre Ellington and Zac Stacy in their tilts, and hope for bigger-than-expected weeks from the elite backs they face in between.

Cam Newton picked up a hairline fracture in his ribs, furthering his draftboard plunge and making him an even riskier bet to return even top-seven QB numbers. Mike Shula's idea of risk is wearing one sock to bed at night, so expect Cam's designed runs to almost vanish early in the year. Even as the team's de-facto goal line back, Cam has too much risk injected in his low ADP. Platooning him in the first few weeks of the season with good QB matchups on the wire (Geno Smith is my current favorite streamer for week 1) may be necessary to mitigate what will surely be terrible passing numbers and next-to-no rushing.

Sam Bradford re-tore his ACL because of course. Shaun Hill, hilariously enough, might just be a "sidegrade" for the Rams, offering potentially similar production assuming he can shake off some rust and develop a quick rapport with the starters. Meanwhile, my mancrush on Zac Stacy got even more unhealthy, approaching Helga Pataki shrine-in-the-closet levels; ignoring Benny Cunningham's slightly growing role, Stacy now has the keys to the offense and will eat like the chubby bowling ball he is. He will face stacked boxes more often than not, but as long as Hill can signal-call at an average level (and outperforms Kellen Clemens' last-season disaster), defenses won't be able to key in on him as much as they may need to. Unfortunately, Trumaine Johnson also suffered a potential multi-week injury, putting stress on the Rams' weak-link secondary and affecting their ability to play ball control.

According to the injury report I'm perusing, Josh Gordon is questionable for the start of the season due to an abdomen issue. I'm sure his looming drug suspension is behind such a listing.

Both Green Bay TEs behind Richard Rodgers will be on the injury report for a decent chunk of the season, if not more. If you plan on streaming the position, keep Rodgers on the watch list. Additionally, B.J. Raji tore his bicep and will most likely sit on the shelf for the year. Serendipity may have struck Capers' defense with this blow, as Raji's direct backup is a far more athletic tackle and could easily outperform him. Green Bay's defense may be a trap matchup coming into the season, so remain vigilant.

Kenny Stills aggravated a quad injury he'd been dealing with, downgrading his week one status to questionable. His price is still abhorrently low, and this shouldn't affect his real value as a spot-starter and upside play (although I don't blame you if starting him against the Falcons in two weeks smells a bit too delicious to not take a piece). I'd still draft him without question.

Matt Schaub has been diagnosed with tendonitis in his throwing elbow. As if any Raider outside of MJDMC mattered to your roster.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis has been nursing a hip flexor stinger since last week and missed his last game, giving Jeremy Hill more snaps with the starters. Possibly as a result, Coley Harvey of ESPN Bengals has omitted the Law Firm from his 53-man roster projection. It would seem the torch has been wrenched from BJGE's sticky fingers and all-but-officially handed to Hill, who in light of Gio Bernard's poor preseason, is looking like a full-time complement in the run game. A true thunder-and-lightning duo may exist in Ohio, and at Hill's price, it may be worth investing in.

Chris Polk's hamstring problem, originally assumed to be minor, has kept him out for a month and Potato Chip Kelly pushed the team to trade for Kenjon Barner in his stead. Shady owners should keep an eye on Barner as their new handcuff, considering Polk's injury has been confirmed as more serious than we'd been led to think. Tangentially, Darren Sproles got some inside runs in the preseason, and looked surprisingly decent. His draft spot is still too rich, but could certainly push as a spot starter in PPR; if and when he's inevitably dropped by his drafter due to injuries or general impatience, I'd spend a waiver claim on him.

--Lucio Leone

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