Alright, now that I'm done gazing into my own navel, we can begin. First, to touch on some of last week's notes (make sure to read Alex's part 2/rebuttal piece to get the whole picture from last week)...
Lorenzo Taliaferro got the between-the-tackles carries against Carolina on Sunday, as the Ravens held Pierce out "as a precaution." Yeah, right; the team saw what they needed to see from both backs, and probably used this week as a dress rehearsal for LoLo taking over the role full-time. Forsett started the game and ran better than LoLo overall, but Jamison Hensley of ESPN Baltimore believes his experience and comfort with Gary Kubiak gave him the starting edge this week (similar to what happened in their season opener). This looks like a New Orleans-type backfield, as Alex posited, but without Pierce vying for meaningful carries and LoLo continuing to take goal-line totes, he may return some solid flex and spot-start value after all. Forsett's advanced age, small stature, and LoLo's beyond-his-years pass protection skills help inflate his value as well.
Torrey Smith's stat line looks nice on paper, with 53 yards and a score, but the numbers hold no weight. He saw only three(!) targets on a day where the Panthers secondary couldn't cover a bedspread, getting wholly outplayed by none other than Smitty the Geezer. As a role-player, Torrey's real value comes from taking the top off the defense and drawing crucial pass interference calls. Too bad they don't count good-teamwork points in fantasy land.
Matt Forte, Toby Gerhart, and Lamar Miller all found the end zone over the weekend, giving loyal owners and dice-rollers a reward for their faith. Forte's resurgence looks like it's on track, with the Bears throwing down against some middling-to-horrid rush defenses before their week nine bye (Atlanta, a team that just let Matt Asiata score on them thrice, is one of those teams). Miller scored two TDs for the first time in his career, putting on a great show for the international fans in Wembley Stadium. Alex said last week to sell him sky-high, and after such a performance against the mired-in-tumult Raiders, I'm tempted to agree. Gerhart, on the other hand, may have lost his only bankable fantasy asset: a firm hold on the starting job. Jacksonville brass threatened Gerhart's job by vowing to give more carries to Denard Robinson, which they followed through with against the Chargers; he responded by out-producing Gerhart on fewer touches, outside of the goal-line plunge. Toby Time's clock may have stopped on Sunday, so try to get some value back for him off the touchdown.
Can't buy low on Keenan Allen anymore, can you, nerds? But far be it from me to posture and taunt about one of my favorite young players' success; instead, I feel the need to rebut a rebuttal. Last week, Alex's fantasy column pointed to Allen as a sell-high pending his inevitable crushing of Jacksonville, pointing to a lack of targets and tertiary place in the Chargers' offense as pitfalls he may face. As much as I dislike being "that guy," this point is factually incorrect: Allen is currently second on the team in targets (behind why-the-hell-is-he-still-playing Eddie Royal), and leads the SuperChargers in both receiving yardage and first downs. This includes his vile week three statline and middling first two outings. As a comparison, Rivers' supposed favorite outside target Malcom Floyd has only 15 targets and runs low-percentage routes opposite Allen. In short, the Rivers-to-Allen connection can weather Floyd's return, Gates' hot streak, and maybe even a Sharknado. As long as he can start finding the end zone, his season will pay dividends.
Stock Up
Everyone catching a ball from Eli Manning saw their stocks skyrocket Thursday night, off a whipping (can I say that in light of the Adrian Peterson thing?) of the Washington Whatevers. Washington's secondary could make Wednesday Addams giggle at how pathetic it is, but New York has been clicking the past few weeks and deserves the credit they're getting. The win on national television may have been a catalyst to fully right the ship. Victor Cruz danced the salsa for the first time since early last year (though he's still dealing with drops, it seems), Rueben Randle put some defenders on skates with his trademark YAC quicks, and Larry Donnell almost overshadowed Derek Jeter's final home-game heroics with his dominant performance. After a ghastly season and the firing of awful coordinator Kevin Gilbride, the Giants' offense has returned to fantasy relevance.
Update: As of 5 PM on Monday, news broke that E.J. Manuel has officially been benched in favor of free-agent acquisition Kyle Orton. Anyone with eyes could see this move would happen eventually, but after only four weeks, EJ has proven without a doubt that his middling skills, accuracy woes, and shaky confidence will forever tether him to backup-level jobs. With the slightly more commendable Orton under center, Sammy Watkins' stock gets a big boost. Last week, I derided his big stat line as a typical streaky blowup due to a combination of a bad opposing defense and positive game script. With Orton's marginally better accuracy, wealth of experience managing offenses, and tendency to shower his number-one wideout in targets (even more than EJ was), Slammy may find some consistency to his game this year. We must reserve expectations, though; remember, this is still a rookie WR catching passes from the man Tim Tebow famously usurped. But fantasy-wise, this pushes him back into the black.
Stock Down
Cordarrelle Patterson threw on an invisibility cloak and traveled to Hogsmeade after week one, because he's been missing in action ever since. Only four balls came his way, and he got no chances at the jet sweeps or bubble screens he'd been so effective on in the past. One wonders what trash can Norv Turner buried the gadget plays he'd purportedly written up for Flash in. Unfortunately for owners, this looks to be more of a trend than a fluke. My preseason arbitrage column highlighted Flash's lingering rawness and lack of finesse as roadblocks to consistent success; such flaws overshadowed his freakish talent against Atlanta on Sunday. At this point, owners may have no choice but to hold onto their premier wideout and pray to whatever deity can get Norval on the phone quickest that he fixes their gameplans.
Arian Foster played at far less than 100% against the Bills, producing dust clouds on the ground. His fantasy day could have been tragic if not for a handful of FitzMagic-brand bounce passes he caught out of the slot. Foster's continued health issues and inconceivable workload may already be nipping at his heels, and these past few weeks serve as a grim reminder of the risk he carries. If he can get right within the week, he'll face off against Dallas' soft defense as a possible breather game. The cons of his mounting nicks and possible usage limitations out of fear from the team staff outweigh his short-term matchup benefits, in my opinion, and we probably aren't seeing the last of Foster's struggles against his own body this season.
Every strand of my DNA vies against this, but I must mention the great Julio Jones. Julio had a solid game against Minnesota, but saw a ton of (expected) double and triple-coverage, limiting his potential output. That may continue next week against the Giants, whose back end has performed well thus far. Yet Julio's ability should concern nobody, of course, and I am no different; what does concern me, however, is the current state of the Atlanta offensive line. The birds lost three starting linemen on Sunday, forcing TE Levine Toilolo to play emergy right tackle in the fourth quarter. Their line had performed decently to this point but was still considered a weakness on their offense. Now, we can only hold our breath and see how Matt Ryan's pass protection will shuffle out. King Julio is still an elite WR1 and is on pace to lead the league in receiving (with Jordy Nelson hot on his tail), but owners may need to temper expectations very slightly going forward.
Buy Low
Rob Gronkowski is my buy-low blockbuster this week, spurred by Alex's rebuttal column declaring Gronk a sell-high. Gronk's snap count has risen steadily over the first three weeks of the season (topping out at 58% last week), and (as of Monday afternoon) tonight's game against Kansas City may give Bill Belichick a perfect opportunity to remove the muzzle entirely. KC's defense is one foot in the grave at this point, with numerous starters missing due to injury, and they've been very kind to TEs as a result. Gronk has a solid chance to blow up in Arrowhead, so get to offering up some of your own sell-highs to snag him before that happens. As far as injury concerns go, all of Gronk's various dust-ups (outside of a college back strain he had revisited this summer) have been one-time problems. There's certainly valid discussion to be had about whether he naturally picks up injuries more than other players, especially due to his position, but as far as recurring potential goes, I don't feel Gronk dumps as much risk on his owners as some believe.
Sell High
Khiry Robinson only touched the ball eight times Sunday night, but still sliced through Dallas' front seven for 87 yards. He did well to produce like he did with the Saints taking him out of the hurry-up and pass offense. Still, the sun has set on his tenure as Sean Payton's starting RB. Mark Ingram is on track to return after their week six bye, and should hopefully pick up where his breakout season left off. Dump Khiry on an bye-week or injury-squeezed owner to recoup a final bit of coin for his services.
Waiver Watch
This isn't Jerick McKinnon's first appearance in the Waiver Watch section, but after this weekend, I felt more affirmation was required. McKinnon piled on 152 total yards against the Falcons' liability of a run defense, with his SPARQ score-breaking athletics at center stage. Matt Asiata may be little more than a fullback, but he catches the ball decently and can barrel over defenders en route the the end zone, which may limit McKinnon's ceiling as we look ahead. However, he's the quintessential big-play back and carries a ton of power in his frame, giving him three-down back potential. Stash him; if the chips keep falling his way, he could end up as this year's waiver-wire diamond.
Travaris Cadet took almost all the passing-back snaps in the Saints' loss to the Cowboys, out-touching Pierre Thomas seven to four; for their faith, Cadet gave the Saints 60 total yards (and a lost fumble, but we'll gloss over that). PT Bruiser is running out of gas at 29 years old, and it appears Cadet is being groomed to take over as the season carries on. For those of you with deep benches or PPR scoring, Cadet may be worth a flier.
Austin Sefarian-Jenkins never left the field in Tampa's tilt with Pittsburgh, and Mike Glennon peppered him with targets (seven). Tight end is constantly touted as the second-most difficult offensive position to learn, and rookie TEs often fail to produce with any regularity. Still, if ASJ is going to continue his every-down role now that Giraffe Glennon has taken over for the obvious bust Josh McCown, he'll be sure to see a bunch of targets that a huge athlete like him can do something with. If you've been victimized by the TE injury bug, he might be able to help.
--Lucio Leone
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