Week 3 Fantasy Report: Round 1 Recap
A few players I have to address after they were included in the Week 3 Fantasy Report by Lucio:
Toby Gerhart: I disagree with Lucio on Toby Gerhart getting any better with BLAKE BORTLES BLAKE BORTLES BLAKE BORTLES as the QB. Not this season. Yes, Toby may have more room to run now, but he's still the same player that carried the dubious title of "most overhyped" coming into this season. Like Lucio said, Toby Gerhart is a Tonka Truck that's slower than I am. He's useless.
Lorenzo Taliaferro: It's not much of a disagreement since Lorenzo was only on the waiver watch section of the article, but I'm saying don't bother with him at all. That Ravens backfield is a mess and I think it'll be a 3-headed monster just like New Orleans (except with little fantasy production). Too bad Ray Rice is an idiot because he'd probably be in for a nice season as the undisputed starter for this season.
Garrett Graham: Yes! Someone else believes in Graham!
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| A great option in the depleted TE pool. |
BUY LOW
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| I know this isn't this year, but it was perfect for this article. |
Montee Ball: I mentioned in the latest Third and Long Podcast that the Denver offense isn't clicking like it did last year. We discussed how it's possible Montee Ball is just average talent like the rest of the RBs on the Broncos (and even made a comparison to Joseph Addai from the Colts' heyday). But I don't believe Ball is just average talent. After an amazing college career, Ball came out of the draft in the perfect position, lining up behind arguably the greatest quarterback over the past 15 years. A Peyton Manning running back always gets the benefit of teams covering for the pass and has a great opportunity to put up HUGE numbers. So far, this year hasn't gone too well for Montee. In week 1, Denver's offense was on point, and it showed with Montee Ball's numbers (13 points in ESPN standard scoring leagues, a respectable total but it may be lower than you were expecting with your first or second round pick). In week 2 Denver lost the time of possession battle to Kansas City and was in comeback mode all of Week 3 against the Seahawks. This took away from the opportunities that could have been given to Ball. I don't believe this average-looking Broncos offense will continue to be average all season. Week 4 is a bye week for the Broncos and gives them plenty of time to get back on track. When it happens, I expect Montee to have numbers close to what Moreno had last year, if not better. Buy low while you can.
Eddie Lacy: This is the back I ended up buying low on after week 2. Lacy had to play 3 of the top 6 running defenses in the NFL in the first three weeks and his numbers suffered from it. What doesn't help is the Packers offense as a whole has been below par to start this season. But Aaron Rodgers says R-E-L-A-X and that's what I say too. Week 4 is a great chance for Lacy to get back on track, playing a Chicago team that can't find any way to cover the run. Owners may be reluctant to sell their first round draft pick but you've got to get Lacy on your team if you can.
Doug Martin: Dougie Fresh is one of the aforementioned injured running backs that may have hurt your squad so far this season. If this is the case, you may be already calling him a bust and trying to get rid of him. But I'm saying don't. Martin will be healthy again soon and Rainey has done everything to let Dougie come take his job back. After a performance against the Falcons on national TV that will want to be forgotten (Not this part), I just don't see Tampa Bay continuing to throw the ball so much. They need to rely on the run game to win games and Martin is the key to not going 0-16 this season.
Trent Richardson: WHAT?!?!?!? TRich is on this list????? Well yes, he is. The Bradshaw hype is at an all-time high right now and Trent seems to be officially a backup, according to the media and most fantasy players (who likely don't actually watch the Colts games). Yes, Ahmad is good and he's always been good, but TRich has been running much better this season (currently running at a 3.8 YPC clip versus a raspberry-worthy 2.9 last year) and everyone is ignoring it. Anyone who thinks the Colts are going to ride with Bradshaw has no idea what they're talking about. The Colts are fully committed to having TRich as their main back and keep Ahmad as one of the best backups in the league. Richardson is even on the waiver wire in some leagues! Now is the best time to grab him, because he WILL have a solid fantasy season. Last week he was stopped on the goal-line twice, which won't be happening all season. Plus, there's always the chance Bradshaw gets hurt.
Other buy low candidates: Steven Jackson, Matt Forte
Non-RB buy low candidates: Andre Johnson, Aaron Dobson, Demaryius Thomas (will most likely be sell high in a few weeks)
SELL HIGH
I started with a gigantic list of players for this sell high section but I'm only going to write about half of them. You can see the full list at the end of this section.
CJ Spiller: Spiller is splitting carries with Fred Jackson like most people believed would happen this season. He's had a couple decent games in weeks 1 and 2 but then had a below average game in week 3. Week 3 is closer to what we'll be seeing this season from CJ and it's not something an owner is going to like. Sell high on CJ Spiller before he becomes virtually useless for fantasy this season. To add, it hurts every time seeing Spiller return kicks because it's only a matter of time before the huge risk of returning makes him less than 100%. We're already starting to see it now.Lamar Miller: Miller is one of the top sell high candidates right now in my opinion. I completely agree with Lucio saying Miller's stock is up, and that's what makes him a perfect sell high candidate. Moreno will be coming back eventually and when he does Miller will no longer be the starter and will be splitting carries at best. Moreno's injury early in the season pretty much keeps his knees healthy for the rest of the season. To make matters worse, both running backs won't be putting up great numbers because the Dolphins offensive line is made out of tin foil.
Giovani Bernard: Gio's fantasy value is at an all-time high and now is the absolute perfect time to sell high. Like, right now. Stop reading this article and trade him away before it's too late. Jeremy Hill is way too much of a threat to be relying in Gio all season. Gio's value this season has been his goal-line touchdowns, which absolutely will not continue. He's too small to keep running between the tackles all season and Hill is built to be that type of runner.
Ahmad Bradshaw: See Trent Richardson as noted above.
Zac Stacy: He's officially splitting carries (maybe not 50-50, but still splitting carries). Most of Stacy's value was in the volume he received as the Rams sole running back but now it's over. He put up respectable numbers in weeks 2 and 3 because of the run defenses he was up against so now it's time to sell him while the numbers are still technically there and his name is valued. I just don't see Stacy being able to put up the fantasy numbers owners are looking for when he starts playing the NFC and AFC West teams. The Rams are a terrible team and that entire offense will suffer in fantasy this season. It's a shame he's not the one in Jacksonville, Baltimore, or Indy.
Frank Gore: Ah...Frank Gore. This is the one player I knew would be on this list no matter what happened. He's still the main back in SF for now but he lacks the speed and explosiveness to be a starter for this team. Carlos Hyde is the goal-line back so far and keeps getting better with every game. The clock is ticking for Gore's career as an NFL starter to be over. The Eagles game may be his last productive one.
Rob Gronkowski: And this is who I sold high on to buy low on Eddie Lacy. Yes, Gronk is one of the best tight ends in the game today but look at what's going on this season. He's a player on snap count that kills fantasy production and is getting most of his work on the goal line. He might be the exact definition of a boom or bust player week to week due to the complete reliance on those goal line touchdowns. The Patriots offense is struggling this year without Gronk out there for most of the snaps and eventually they will start to play him more. But when that happens, so do the injuries. Either Gronk stays a part-time player who relies on goal line touchdowns or he becomes the injured Gronk we've seen in the past. He can win you guys by himself sometimes but he's not a player who you want to be a major part of your team.
Emmanuel Sanders: Don't get me wrong, Sanders is a great player and is going to have a solid fantasy season. But not a top 12 wide receiver like we've seen. His value is through the roof at the moment. A Sanders trade can get you a consistent wide receiver right now that will get points week in and week out unlike what Sanders brings to the table. Emmanuel Sanders is leading the league in receptions after week 3 and is third in the NFL in receiving yards. No way that will last when Peyton Manning has a plethora of options to go to, especially with Welker back.
Keenan Allen: This is a funny one because Keenan Allen isn't actually a sell high yet. It's been a dismal start to the season for him but his time will come. Rivers has a million options to throw the ball to, and Malcolm Floyd is Rivers' favorite option for the outside of the field (where Keenan was last year after the Floyd injury). So Rivers' go-to option is Antonio Gates and his favorite option on the outside is Floyd. That leaves Keenan, Green, Royal, and Matthews (when he is back) to get the leftover targets. Not a particularly desirable situation for a player who is as good as Keenan Allen. Allen will get a touchdown eventually and once that happens, it's time to sell high.
Other sell high candidates: Reggie Bush, Joique Bell, Darren Sproles, Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson, Shane Vereen, Reggie Wayne, Kendall Wright, Terrance West, Martellus Bennett, Zach Ertz
About the Author
Alex SappeCo-creator and co-editor-in-chief of Three By Five Sports Network
Co-host of the Third and Long Podcast
Co-host of the Footballistically Speaking Podcast
Follow me on Twitter @AlexSappe
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