Sunday, August 31, 2014
Saturday, August 30, 2014
Final Preseason Sleepers and Busts: From Rip van Winkle to Ryan Leaf, Part 1
"ONLY SIX DAYS SIX HOURS AND EIGHTEEN MINUTES." - Alex Sappe, 08/29/14.
The preseason winds down once again, boys and girls, and our thirst for the gridiron has reached a fever pitch. Fake footballers are finalizing their rankings, scanning for the last bits of news to emerge from camp and roster cuts, and generally acting as degenerates so often tend to. More importantly, most depth chart battles have been won (or lost) by now, and the chances for injury are as low as they will be for the remainder of the season. For the final wave of drafters, arguably the most populated group of all, as well as GMs already playing the wire, I've decided to compile a few of my final sleepers and busts before the season gets underway. I wholly expect to burn this list by October, but for now, here's my opinion on who's hot and cold coming into the best time of the year.
The preseason winds down once again, boys and girls, and our thirst for the gridiron has reached a fever pitch. Fake footballers are finalizing their rankings, scanning for the last bits of news to emerge from camp and roster cuts, and generally acting as degenerates so often tend to. More importantly, most depth chart battles have been won (or lost) by now, and the chances for injury are as low as they will be for the remainder of the season. For the final wave of drafters, arguably the most populated group of all, as well as GMs already playing the wire, I've decided to compile a few of my final sleepers and busts before the season gets underway. I wholly expect to burn this list by October, but for now, here's my opinion on who's hot and cold coming into the best time of the year.
Friday, August 29, 2014
Barclays Premier League Week 3 Predictions
I already quickly mentioned some of my Week 3 predictions during the latest edition of the Footballistically Speaking Podcast, but I wanted to finalize them and get them down on the site with some really quick analysis included.
Burnley vs Man United
Prediction: 1-1
Analysis: What is going on with Manchester United? Only two premier league games and one horrendous Capital One Cup game and fans are already calling for David Moyes to come back (never thought we'd hear that). Angel Di Maria should end up being a fantastic transfer and Manchester United will finally have the player they've been missing since Ronaldo. It's no guarantee however that Di Maria makes his debut on Saturday and even if he does, the chemistry probably won't be there yet. Look for Manchester United to continue their struggles against a Burnley side still looking for their first point in the premier league since the 2009-2010 season.
Burnley vs Man United
Prediction: 1-1
Analysis: What is going on with Manchester United? Only two premier league games and one horrendous Capital One Cup game and fans are already calling for David Moyes to come back (never thought we'd hear that). Angel Di Maria should end up being a fantastic transfer and Manchester United will finally have the player they've been missing since Ronaldo. It's no guarantee however that Di Maria makes his debut on Saturday and even if he does, the chemistry probably won't be there yet. Look for Manchester United to continue their struggles against a Burnley side still looking for their first point in the premier league since the 2009-2010 season.
Thursday, August 28, 2014
Tuesday, August 26, 2014
Monday, August 25, 2014
Preseason Trends and Exhibition Injury Pointlessness
Preseason football, more than any other organized sport, exists mostly as a risk-riddled cash grab. I love watching young hopefuls climb their respective depth charts and analyzing backup players, which ostensibly gives the preseason its purpose; but when coaches claim to force their starters to play in exhibition games as punishment, there's something very wrong with the practice. A rash of serious injuries have taken down some of the more important players in the league to this point, affecting both reality and fantasy. Without firing off yet another rant against the waste of time we call the preseason, I'd like to go over some notable injuries and how they may affect building your roster.
Monday, August 18, 2014
Arbitrage All-Stars, Volume 3.5 (ypc)
The last ADP column left me yearning for more. Value-shopping is a habit and I may be addicted, a thought that occurs as I choke down day-old "bread" because it was on clearance. As I had mentioned, lots of aRBitrage plays (see what I did there?) exist this year, potentially more so than in recent years due to a fairly widespread changing of the guard sweeping league backfields. Wear on previously-gold RB1s has finally begun taking its toll, with more to inevitably follow as the season drags on. Getting in on the ground floor of some up-and-comers and knowing which older backs to take a chance on can help solidify an otherwise frenetic couple of roster slots. Before we dive into that, I also glanced over the time-sensitive nature of this series earlier; I'd like to revisit a few players and see how their ADP has changed...
Saturday, August 16, 2014
Footballistically Speaking Episode 1: ZAMORA!, Undisclosed Fees, and the League Preview
After much built-up hype, Footballistically Speaking is underway with our preview of the English Premier League! Be sure to subscribe to the podcast feed (in the sidebar to the right of this post) if you want to keep up with the series throughout the season. We'll be putting out new episodes every other week covering league happenings and game analysis. Stream or download the episode here!
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| Best. Goal. Ever. |
Thursday, August 14, 2014
Arbitrage All-Stars, Volume III
As the preseason enters its third week and drafts pick up steam, innumerable eyes are glued to the Twitterverse, slurping up data streams from all 32 camps. I count myself among the new-age zombies; I must have at least a dozen web alerts set for certain players and teams, to watch over depth chart battles and injury problems and generally exacerbate my anxiety. I'm already two drafts in, with one or two more on the way, and the fear of the unknown pulses through these already-built rosters. An aftereffect of the instant-news world we live in is higher volatility in the player market. Drafting in early August has its pros and cons, both relating to aforementioned camp storylines and potential injuries. It's a big reason why I hope discussing value in the drafts can help, by mitigating the high cost of camp stars that hold even more risk this early in the preseason. This time around, we'll take a look at running backs, inarguably the riskiest yet most important position on one's fake football roster (aside from the true cornerstone, kicker! Get at me, Legatron.) Likely a study in volatility in itself, this article and others like it are subject to change drastically depending on, again, camp and exhibition games. For now, though, I'd like to send up a few overdrafted backs over the next week or so and bestow upon you, the lucky reader, my wholly infallible opinions. If that sounds like a prime example of autofellatio, just know that my nickname in college was King Lucio and move on.
Monday, August 11, 2014
Arbitrage All-Stars, Volume II
After bathing in the colorful outer-space operatics of Guardians of the Galaxy twice this week, I was sorely tempted to title this next installment "Awesome Mix Volume 2." Alas, continuity binds me to convention. So, we return to the draft market study to run down another overvalued player, this time one from my favorite position, the tight end. Perfect specimens of the new, huge-athlete, high-flying NFL offense, tight ends command my attention on the field with circus catches and pancake blocks alike. Tight ends combine the best parts of watching receivers and linemen into one intimidatingly-massive hunk of meat, wrapped in a jersey like a neat little Christmas present.
Friday, August 8, 2014
Arbitrage All-Stars, Volume I
In perusing the completely unhealthy glut of fake football articles I read, I've come to understand the concept of arbitrage (credit to rotoviz.com for first planting the seed in my brain). In financing (i.e. the real world), arbitrage basically entails making a profit off of market inaccuracies. To us, though, arbitrage points out incongruence in player ADP (average draft position) and offers potential to capitalize on it. Since fantasy players are essentially volatile stocks, with their values rising and falling through the offseason, the concept translates well to draft strategies. In this series, I'll be taking a look at player stock I believe may be inflated, and offer some possible arbitrage plays at their positions; in other words, players who can offer the same or similar production for cheaper, thus allowing a drafter to make a profit. Most likely, these will follow standard scoring, but I'll be sure to include some fodder for other formats like PPR if this series goes on. Now, with all the boring introductory fluff out of the way, let's get to our first study.
Sunday, August 3, 2014
Point, Counterpoint: A Treatise on Zac Stacy
Point, Counterpoint: A Treatise on Zac Stacy
Settle in, boys and girls. I have a tale to spin for you, about a young man's battles against pirates, miners, Nordic savages, and terrifying birds of prey... better known as Zac Stacy's upcoming NFL season. If you've already read Alex's article on Stacy's bust potential (and if you haven't, click the link now you ridiculous person), you understand that we have discussed the fifth-round sophomore's fantasy value for a sizable chunk of our draft prep time this offseason. So, I felt obligated to poke in and champion my waiver-wire stud as a proper counterpoint. |
| Actual excerpt from my fantasy notes |
Saturday, August 2, 2014
Article 3: Stacy, Can't You See You're Just Not The One For Me (til later)
Article 3: Stacy, Can't You See You're Just Not The One For Me (til later)
Why will Zac Stacy be a fantasy bust this year? First off, let me thank Lucio for sparking this debate for my latest article. In our league, he's keeping Zac Stacy in the 12th round (obviously totally acceptable for a player who's ranked 13th overall in ESPN's top 300). But in this article I'll be pointing out why Stacy will be a bust for people taking him in the second (or third, or fourth, or fifth...) round. Fortunately for the timing of this article, Jim McCormick of ESPN.com published an article on why Stacy is worth a high pick. So I have a lot of material to disagree with.
Recently, I've gotten a lot of backlash from Lucio for ranking Stacy lower than a lot of other running backs including Ryan Mathews, Joique Bell, and Chris Johnson. But I have many reasons for this.
The main reason being that I don't trust any St. Louis Rams player to be on my fantasy team. There's not much to prove here, that offense just isn't that good. They were ranked 30th in terms of team offense in 2013, and that includes Zac Stacy's solid season. Even with additions like the number two overall pick of the 2014 draft, Greg Robinson, and Kenny Britt from the Titans, I just don't see this offense coming together this year.Another reason for the poor season I think the Rams will have is their schedule. Of course they're in the NFC West, so they have to play the Seahawks, 49ers, and Cardinals (all top 10 defenses). But their schedule is tougher this season compared to last. Last year the Rams got to play teams like the Cowboys (ha, Lucio), the Falcons (spoke too soon...), the Jaguars, the Texans, the Titans, and the Buccaneers. When we look at this season, of course they have some easy games against the Vikings, the Cowboys defense, and the Raiders, but overall the schedule is tougher. Games against the Eagles, the Broncos, the Chargers, the Redskins, the Chiefs, and possibly even the Giants (you're welcome Jesse) will only hurt the Rams. Zac Stacy's best games came when the Rams were either ahead or at least not far behind in games. I don't see the Rams doing that this year and traditionally, when behind in a game coaches don't like to rush the ball. That leads us to my next point.
Zac Stacy is definitely a volume-dependent running back (Yes Jim McCormick, that can be a bad thing). Stacy needs to get a lot of work in a game before he catches his stride and breaks out. When we look at Week 5 against the Jaguars last season, where Stacy was still splitting carries with Daryl Richardson and Benny Cunningham, he didn't break out until the fourth quarter (starting with his 11th carry). For another example, we can look at a monster game from Stacy. In my conversation with Lucio, Week 15 against New Orleans was brought up (23 carries, 133 yards, 1 touchdown). I'll still use this game as my example even though it was against New Orleans, one of the better teams in the league, so it somewhat goes against my argument. But these stats from Stacy came from a game where the Rams were winning 14-0 after the first quarter, 24-3 after halftime, and 27-3 after the third quarter. It's a classic example where the Rams ran the ball more after being ahead in the game and Stacy didn't break out until the Rams were already winning 17-0 in the second quarter. Once again, I don't see the Rams being able to duplicate those results on a consistent basis with a tougher schedule.
Another potential problem for Stacy's workload is the addition of Auburn running back, Tre Mason. Mason is faster than Stacy, was a higher draft pick than Stacy, and overall a more talented back than Stacy. Now I don't think Mason makes a huge impact in his first season so it sounds like it shouldn't be much of a problem. But I also don't see the Rams taking away carries from Cunningham, who the Rams love. So losing a couple touches to Mason only hurts a volume-dependent runner like Stacy. Especially a player like Stacy who doesn't get many looks in the passing game and misses a quarter or a half due to injury here and there.
So do I want Zac Stacy on my fantasy team? Unless I can get him in the sixth round or lower, I'm saying no. I wouldn't spend my second round pick on a player who averages less than 4.0 YPC, doesn't get many looks in the passing game, is volume-dependent, somewhat touchdown-dependent, has a tough schedule, and is in competition for getting carries with about three other running backs who the Rams also like. If I do draft Stacy, I can't confidently start him in 8 of the 16 games (possibly more). So after all the evidence, you tell me if Stacy is worth that 13th overall projection (18.6 ESPN ADP) ESPN gives him. It should be an easy answer.
About the Author
Alex Sappe
Co-creator and co-editor-in-chief of Three By Five Sports Network
Co-host of the Third and Long Podcast
Co-host of the Footballistically Speaking Podcast
Follow me on Twitter @AlexSappe
