Stock Up
Odell Beckham, Jr. finally got his hamstring-straining self on the field Sunday, and the Meadowlands welcomed him with open arms. Most impressively, Beckham played, as pundits call them, both the "big" and "small" game well; in other words, he was money after the catch on short passes and his routes had the snap-crackle-pop crispness McAdoo's offense requires, yet was able to out-leap rising star Robert Alford on a contested fade in the end-zone for his first career score. For our purposes, he saw five targets and corralled four, seeing the field for over half the game as well. Beckham was everything the Giants wanted: fast as hell with a vicegrip and spring legs. As the final first-round pick to see playing time, OBJ may have just translated "fashionably late" to our gridiron world.
Joique Bell was absent this weekend, still battling back from a concussion he suffered in September. However, Reggie Bush did little to affect the pecking order in his wake, instead running ineffectively and picking up an injury of his own. With backup Theo Riddick on the shelf, and George Winn showing only average running ability, Bell should slide right back into his role as the primary runner for the Lions this week. If Reggie sits against a Vikings defense still stinging from Eddie Lacy rolling (tide) on them, as well as one that is at risk of losing top-end safety Harrison Smith this week, Joique has the chance to bounce back in a noteworthy way. As a caveat, though, attention must be paid to Megatron's status as the weekend approaches; without him, the Lions may get corralled by a vengeful Mike Zimmer squad.
Percy Harvin owners will hate me for listing him here, but last night's game should bestow massive relief to said owners. Harvin had three scores called back on penalties in D.C., after Jeff Triplette all but proved he had money riding on the spread in the Seahawks game, and finished with under six standard points for the second week in a row. The fact that Harvin got those opportunities and spun them all into gold, though, speaks to a renewed focus on getting the ball in his hands and letting him dance. Last night's fluke may even allow non-owners to pick him up on clearance, if they felt so inclined.
Stock Down
Doug Martin still can't find the hole. Remember two years ago, when the Muscle Hamster was born from the ashes of the hundred-or-so defenders he trampled on his way to the end zone every other week? Now, Martin's running shy, for lack of a better word; he shirks from contact, can't seem to shake anyone, and just doesn't look fluid anymore. Nothing he puts on tape makes me think his future isn't a full-on timeshare with Bobby Rainey and subsequent benching, or worse, a trade. If only there had been historical precedent for a Tampa back whose rookie year lit the field on fire, but saw his career derailed by injuries and ineffectiveness...
Rashad Jennings' age and eternal-backup career may be catching up to him. Admittedly, I may have been harsh on the journeyman in my preseason rundowns. He's been more effective between the tackles than I'd anticipated, and successfully held off Andre Williams for the early-down job. Still, a look at his standard scores inspires little confidence: three weeks of eight or fewer points, three combined catches over the past handful of weeks, and only two scores. He just hasn't returned on his owners' investments thus far. Now, he's nursing a sprained MCL, an injury that has long been associated with overzealous workloads and injury proclivity (both of which Jennings leans towards). He's an obvious wait-and-see, but with beat writers expecting him to be out until week nine and Williams running quite spectacularly in his wake, Jennings' job may change a bit once he returns.
Zac Stacy, my love, it may be time for you to give up the ghost. Stacy ran with respectable vigor against the Eagles, but strained his calf halfway through the Rams' comeback bid. Benny Cunningham came in and scored on a nice scamper a few series later, because the universe is a cruel and unfair place. While Stacy's status for week six isn't in doubt, Jeff Fisher's stubborn refusal to make him the workhorse he embodies may be his downfall (an omen I touched on in my analysis of him in August). Additionally, the Rams face some tough run defenses coming up, and though Stacy was close to matchup-proof last year against such fronts, this year he may not have enough touches to clean up on them. Sell him off and hop in a lifeboat if you can, but I'll hang on to him for a bit longer; after all, a captain always goes down with the ship.
Buy Low
Montee Ball is the new Joseph Addai. Nothing about his game has made me back off of that idea since we posed it in our week three recap show; he's average across the board, was graded rather poorly by scouts, and got by mostly on his inflated college stats that resulted from a huge market share and dominant offensive line (a la Alabama). However, even Addai was able to cobble together two solid seasons with All-World Forehead calling the shots. Until he got hurt, I'd been advocating a "Ball gambit" for owners, where his owners should sell him high then buy him back nice and cheap after he runs the gauntlet of tough run-stuffers he would face in the coming weeks. However, with a multiple-week groin strain shelving him, Ball's gambit changes (though becomes no less complicated): buy him low and watch out for the three-headed monster back. You now must carefully price in the possibility that Ball loses his starting job, or at least a chunk of his valuable touches, to one of his nominal backups in the coming weeks.
Ryan Mathews, in a hilarious twist of fate, may end up one of the only healthy Bolts backs when he returns from his MCL sprain. The Chargers' backfield shuffled down to Branden Oliver and Shaun Draughn on Sunday, and while Oliver showed a hell of a pop coming off the line, his size and skills likely keep him from taking a full-time job. Mathews should step right back into his two-down role, possibly taking on a few of Danny Woodhead's old targets (most of which I now expect to go to Oliver if he continues to show well). It's possible Mathews' situation is even better coming off this sprain than it was during draft season, making him a prime buy-low.
Sell High
Every Jet needs to be dumped like a clingy prom date. Now. Burn the corsage, too. The New York City circus is back in town, making a joke of Geno Smith's tentative steps forward and tenuous confidence. Rex Ryan is once again managing for his job, and is already teeter-tottering between Smith and Vick, between air-heavy games and ground-and-pound plans, ad nauseum. Eric Decker's been hurt, so he may not go for much, but the Chrises Johnson and Ivory have performed well enough so far that they can net you a little bit of coin. Just move all your Jets shares as soon as possible and get yourself miles from that quagmire.
Jamaal Charles looks like his old self on film, juking every defender that has even a prayer of touching him. Andy Reid, sadly, also still looks like his old self: a game-management nightmare. Reid only had Charles touch the ball five times in the entire second half, indelibly derailing the team's comeback attempt. Charles heads into a bye that should get him back on track, but with a below-average strength of schedule looming, there are bound to be more headaches on the way. If you can sell him for equal value, it may aid your squad in the long run. Accept no less, though.
Tom Brady came back in a huge way against a vaunted Bengals defense Sunday night. He got closer to 300 yards than in any other game this season, and his connection with Gronk was on point. So, why not reward him with a long vacation to another team! Brady's flaws and regression cannot be overstated; if a team gets some pressure, he starts running from ghosts Scooby Doo-style, and puts little touch or zip on his passes anymore. Let the narrative and performance speak for itself, and sell him for a nice bundle. Chances are, he was your backup, anyway.
Waiver Watch
I mentioned Andre Williams above while discussing Rashad Jennings; you can draw your own conclusions as to what he can accomplish and his value coming out of their bye, but with the Giants offense rolling, Williams should consistently threaten the top-15.
Ronnie Hillman tentatively expects to own the Broncos' backfield until Montee Ball returns from his injury. Hillman almost got the starting job two years in a row, but was outplayed by Knowshon Moreno last year, and missed most of camp due to an illness this year, allowing Ball to take the reins. I still believe Ball is an average talent at best, and if Hillman grasps the finer details well enough, he may come into more carries going forward. For now, just plug him in for Ball, and keep an eye on both CJ Anderson and Juwan Thompson, his committee fellows.
Branden Oliver just thrashed the top run defense in the league, looked eons better than Donald Goddamn Brown, and has drawn comparisons to every Darren Sproles-esque back you can think of on the way. As long as his pass protection holds up, he should rule the Chargers' backfield until Ryan Mathews returns.
--Lucio Leone
@TheThirdEsquire
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