Week 7 Fantasy Report: Ghosts of Football Yet to Come

Relatively speaking, this week sputtered by with little to-do. A few games went down to the wire and some interesting upsets caused mild tremors, but nothing registered much more than a burp on the figurative Richter scale. What we did see, over all else, was the growing emergence of young players in their respective positions. As is customary during midseason, rookies began hitting their strides, teams loosened the ropes on their young projects, and we as fans began to notice a sense of evolution around the league. Hence, this week I'd like to focus primarily on some of the more impressive youngsters, of course touching upon their fantasy forecasts in both re-draft and a few dynasty tidbits. Hope you all enjoy this seventh installment of my fake football stock report.


Stock Up

Percy Harvin and Eric Decker -- wait, don't close the page! I know I said a few weeks ago that liquidating your Jets assets would bolster almost any roster, but hear me out. Harvin's surprise trade to the Jets helps out the entire offense in a way next-to-nobody saw coming, but it primarily boosts his and Decker's stocks. Harvin goes from a conservative, spread-the-wealth passing attack led by a potentially elite (ugh, that word) quarterback, to the prototypical West Coast offense and a rollercoaster QB. He immediately slides in as their most talented wideout, and adds a few layers to the offense that may command more defensive attention than was once thought. Rex Ryan also loves his gadget plays, and is certain to draw up a few more sweeps to Percy the Tank Engine after we bore witness to their potential effectiveness in the season opener. Geno Smith, meanwhile, gets another big intermediate weapon that can stretch the field as well, the kind he's historically performed best with (going back to his college days with Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey). All of this means less attention draped on Decker, leaving him more open on his traditionally lower-percentage routes; he also shouldn't lose many targets, since Harvin steps into Jeremy Kerley's usual slot role. While neither should perform much better than mid-WR2 levels, the trade has breathed some life into a wheezing zombie formerly shuffling around the Meadowlands.

Russell Wilson, as odd as it sounds, also benefits a bit from the Harvin trade. Most pundits made it clear that the Seahawks shopped Percy for weeks before he finally shipped off, due to his preexisting anger issues that poisoned the locker room. You can glean whatever narrative you like from the stories, but Wilson goes back to his old post-Golden Tate corps, with rookie Paul Richardson settling into the Harvin wrinkle. Wilson's subpar pass protection and better rapport with his existing pass-catchers bolster both his rushing and passing metrics; we saw this past weekend that when he's flushed out by the rush, Wilson threatens to attack open lanes while his eyes remain downfield, ensuring a good chance of him making something out of a broken play. As far as dual-threat QBs go, Rusty officially has the highest floor of them all thanks to his terrific vision and potent offense.

Kelvin Benjamin, as if it needs to be mentioned, has put together an OROY-caliber season thus far. Derided as merely a deep threat with shaky hands in the draft, Benji has forged an almost transient rapport with his QB and taken on the role of Carolina's WR1 with gusto. He's hit some bumps in the road, committing a few vile drops and raising a bit of a concussion-fearing red flag, but he's on pace to finish the season ahead of an 80/1000/10 line and has left every rookie not named Sammy or Branden in the dust. Benjamin's schedule only gets easier from here, meaning his impressive pace is not only sustainable, but improvable (more on the Panther's schedule below). As long as Benji's development stays on track, he should develop into a consistent WR2 with a monstrous ceiling for many, many seasons in the future.


Stock Down

C.J. Spiller broke his collarbone in Orchard Park this weekend, potentially the last injury he'll suffer in the stadium. We mentioned in this week's episode of Third and Long that trade rumors lurked in the shadows of Spiller's locker, but with his season-ending injury, those may be dead. Spiller will almost certainly leave Buffalo after this year, when his contract expires (Buffalo would never pick up his player option at its price), hoping to land one last deal as a feature back somewhere.

Terrance West performed surprisingly poorly against a porous Jaguars defense, but so did the entire Browns offense. However, his bad showing may be the most important one, as it may have spelled the end for him as a rotational back and heir to Ben Tate. West merits a stay on watch lists just in case, but between his mounting errors and Crowell consistently outperforming him, it may be over for the young back in fantasy world this season. It's a shame, as Cleveland's rest-of-season RB matchups look mighty tasty...

Cleveland RB strength of schedule; black lines bracket weeks 8 through 16

Buy Low

Julio Jones owners formerly saw anything less than a full-roster blowup offer for their star wideout/possible Greek deity as positively churlish. After enduring a handful of down weeks and absorbing the state of the Falcons' ridiculously thin offensive line, they may now be willing to listen to reason. Granted, primacy effect still ensures prying him away from sticky fingers will prove quite tricky, but Julio's ability is otherworldly and is still on pace for a top-three finish at the position. Selling some flash-in-the-pan roster bandages and planting a seed of fear by flaunting Atlanta's putrid game against Baltimore could net you this week's blockbuster target.

Ben Tate and Isaiah Crowell deserve some shots at buying as well. As shown above, Cleveland faces only one rush defense ranked above number fifteen (Buffalo) for the rest of the year, and draws the woeful Carolina Panthers for championship weekend. Tate and Crowell both have talent to spare, and have a fantastic offensive line making lanes in front of them in spite of the loss of stud center Alex Mack. While Tate ensures dividends in the short term, he will be more difficult to snag and of course carries one of the most foreboding injury specters over his head. Crowell is worth a stash if his owner is hovering around .500 or lower and needs to get some win-now production injected into their lineup. Either way, getting a piece of this backfield can vault almost any team into playoff contention.

Cam Newton has looked pretty solid in his last few starts, and is officially back to his average expected rushing yardage per week. The Panthers' less-than-stellar clash against Green Bay doused some of the flames his prior week's spectacle had ignited, but Cam's still looking more like his old self. Next weekend, they take on a hurting Seahawks team coming off two of their worst losses in the Rusty Wilson era and certainly looking for some metaphorical(? hopefully?) blood to shed. After that, Carolina has one of the friendliest air-game schedules in the league, partly due to their backloaded divisional schedule (as usual, the NFC South sports the lowest collective defensive rank in the league, somehow worse than the East). Either making a play for Newton now or gambling on another shoddy performance at the hands of the Hawks can lead to positive returns come playoff time for teams unsettled at QB or in search of the high-upside dart throws. Don't give up much for his services, though; QB, like most years, is deep and very streamable even into the end of the season.

Sell High

Denard Robinson, another one of my RB crushes, did some crushing of his own this weekend as he soared to over 100 yards and a score against the Browns. He showed decent power and vision, making the right lane decision more often than not and breaking a few arm tackles in the second level. After such a big performance, Shoelace won another week as the Jags' starter, this time against the more stout Miami front seven. Robinson's big week was a perfect storm of Jacksonville's defense picking on a subpar pass offense, allowing them to stick to the ground game as they nursed their huge lead. Behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league and facing a relatively difficult upcoming slate, Shoelace may never see lanes again.

Terrance Williams caught his sixth touchdown in seven games against the Giants off a broken play and vintage Romodini move, but it was his only catch of the day. Williams' draft-day value hung on the assumption that Dallas' talent-deficient defense would force them into shootouts, but nobody expected them to become a ground-based ball-control team. The end-zone catches have buoyed Williams, but he's still somewhat raw as a receiver (body catches all day every day) and is third or fourth on the target pecking order in a run-focused scheme. His production is completely unsustainable, and he should be sold for something more useful while owners can still tout his 15-touchdown pace.

Waiver Watch

Tre Mason has cobbled together his formerly-vapid form into some tangible ectoplasm and did some work with it, leading the Rams' backfield in snaps. He ran over an admittedly-overrated Seahawks rush defense missing its premier run stuffer in Bobby Wagner, but his game spoke far louder than any "hot take:" Mason has the chops to lead that backfield. Snatch him up and see how the situation shakes out, as Fischer/Schotty is still a terrifying duo to try and predict week-to-week (Fischer has already claimed he wants Zac Stacy to see 25 touches next week and still heaps praise on Benny Cunningham). I'll be over in the corner, caressing my dusty and tear-stained Stacy notebook.

Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon wait in the wings behind the now-ailing Buffalo starters, and while the loss of Spiller and Jackson stings hard, the Bills couldn't really ask for a better contingency plan. The duo mimics their predecessors quite strikingly at a glance, with Brown's talent and quicks spelled by Dixon's power. Upon closer inspection, though, Brown plays a fantastic pass game, runs with Juggernaut-like momentum, and most notably can do something Spiller couldn't: run well between the tackles. If he's cleaned up the ball security issues he flashed during his time in Philly, Brown may take off with the full starting job. Dixon, while an ace on special teams, is more of a plodder than he wants to believe, and doesn't catch passes the way Brown (or Fred Jackson for that matter) can; his restricted overall ability may limit him to short-yardage and goal-line work, if that. Like the Browns, Buffalo sports a great backfield and solid schedule ROS, and the team has shown it can potentially remain competitive late into the season, meaning they should stay balanced on offense. Brown, without a doubt, should be the number-one waiver target this week, and could Wally Pip the Bills' backfield for years to come.

Donte Moncrief is the deep-league/keeper/dynasty fish hook of the week. He played his biggest complement of snaps so far this year, and appears to have stepped over the washed-up looking Hakeem Nicks (out-snapping him 23 to 19). A handful of it came in garbage time, but Moncrief put his talent to work on the big stage. Now, Reggie Wayne looks to suffer a few weeks on the shelf, which should push the rookie into three-wide sets for a chunk of time. It's a great opportunity for an extended audition to become one of the best young QB's top targets in the future. In a best-case scenario, Moncrief takes Nicks' job and pushes Wayne for starting snaps by the year's end, producing up-and-down spot starter numbers for owners during those weeks.

Gavin Escobar added two spikes to his resume on Sunday, along with 65 yards receiving. However, he's in the same boat as T-Will, chained by a running scheme and stuck behind more trusted primary options. Selling high on Escobar in re-draft and shallow keeper leagues is the most prudent course of action for those who scoop him up, but dynasty players must take note of the young TE. He showed some legitimate seam-stretching speed and open field twitchiness. Jason Witten is still the man in Dallas, but he's getting on in years and it absolutely has shown over the past two seasons. As Escobar's role grows and his pass protection develops more, he should grab hold of the torch from Witten in the coming seasons and step into the new-school TE mold set by players like Jordan Cameron, Travis Kelce, and Tyler Eifert. If he is somehow available in your dyno league, he's a must-add.

 --Lucio Leone