Point, Counterpoint: A Treatise on Zac Stacy

Point, Counterpoint: A Treatise on Zac Stacy

Settle in, boys and girls. I have a tale to spin for you, about a young man's battles against pirates, miners, Nordic savages, and terrifying birds of prey... better known as Zac Stacy's upcoming NFL season. If you've already read Alex's article on Stacy's bust potential (and if you haven't, click the link now you ridiculous person), you understand that we have discussed the fifth-round sophomore's fantasy value for a sizable chunk of our draft prep time this offseason. So, I felt obligated to poke in and champion my waiver-wire stud as a proper counterpoint.

Actual excerpt from my fantasy notes

Ask most people that rolled the proverbial football d20 last year who Zac Stacy was, and they will parrot the question right back. Those who are more tapped into the fake football buzz, however, will tell you he's their lucky bowling ball. Despite his rookie-year success, Stacy's whole narrative, so to speak, in the fantasy community seems to come down to a few core points: he's big and slow, is dependent on Jeff Fisher feeding him, and couldn't catch a sickly fish in the Hudson. Oh, and none of that matters anyway, because Tre Mason has come to take his job. I find this whole overarching sentiment rife with inaccuracies and undue negativity. While one could just point to his current ADP as a counterargument to such notions, it would be foolish. Admittedly, much of his draft position is based on the running back premium and last year's numbers alone, neither of which should matter when trying to pinpoint a player's value. However, there's a reason pundits chatter on about the Zac Attack: he's legitimately good at what he does.

Stacy's talent is evident to most who paid close attention to him (considering there was nothing else to watch in Rams games aside from Robert Quinn devouring quarterbacks). It shows in some of his numbers, namely a sparkling 2.45 yards after contact (1) and 19 percent broken tackle rate (2). As Alex points out, though, not everything's so rosy; Stacy's 3.9 YPC is absolutely dreadful, practically Frankenstein-esque. The number includes three outlier weeks that I believe should be disregarded: between weeks 1 and 4, Stacy touched the ball once, so they're obvious trash stats, and week 17, which of course, was after almost every team stopped trying. Without those three efforts, his YPC jumps to 4.2, a decent number considering he faced stacked boxes 84 percent of the time (3) against top-15 defensive fronts. However, to me, the most important facet of Stacy's talent, in the numbers at least, would be his score on a certain metric fantasy writer Shawn Siegele put together a couple of years ago, called the agility score. Essentially, the agility score attempts to measure a back's lateral explosiveness, which has become an essential factor to a three-down runner's skill set in today's league. Now, according to the model, anything above 11.5 means the runner is Michael Turner, while a mark below 11.1 projects a shifty, quick-twitch athlete. The further below that benchmark, the closer a back is to elite agility. This may all sound like me just throwing numbers around, so how about some context? Let's take a cross-section of a few backs that have comparable size, as well as speed and agility scores, to Stacy: Ahmad Bradshaw, Ray Rice, and Doug Martin. 

I am quick to judge people who allegedly knock out their spouse

All of their speed scores fall within +/-10 of Stacy's, each back is between approximately 200 and 220 pounds, and their 40 times are almost all identical. Stacy's agility, according to the model, sits right next to Rice's, and absolutely trounces Martin's.With those quicks and the weight to push through crumbling blocking assignments and throw a few of his own, as well as his aforementioned YAC, Stacy becomes a completely respectable top-dog back. He has the edge over his peers in the Rams backfield for these reasons, and such comparables actually make me excited for his long-term potential in fantasy as well as real-life. In short, mislabel him as a Cedric Benson-like grinder at your own peril.

Still, a specter looms over his shiny brown head: a ghoul in an Auburn jersey named Tre Mason. The fact that Jeff Fisher decided to take him in the third round of the draft gave Stacy fans immediate pause. It seemed like a luxury pick at the time, based on his talent falling to them, and rumblings are that he could eat up some of Stacy's carries due to such talent. I wholeheartedly disagree with the notion that Tre Mason is any more of an athlete than Stacy. While Mason clocked in .05 seconds faster on his 40 and had a slightly longer broad jump, his speed score (speed adjusted for size and agility) mirrors Stacy's at 101. On tape, they both display wonderful cuts; Mason pops them in open space more often, breaking ankles in the process, but Stacy's superior vision usually lets him fire one off right behind his blockers. His pro tape shows

Tre Mason at Auburn

the same, solid gap-punch technique behind an inferior run blocking unit (which is why Robinson's got me optimistic, too). Scouts seemed concerned about Mason's pass protection, ball skills, and vision as last May came along, all skills Stacy has at least proven competent if not superior at. Granted, Mason has no agility score; it can't be measured because he never did a timed 3-cone or shuttle prior to the draft. Hence, I can't hold Stacy's fantastic measure as a definite plus, since we have no concrete metric to compare it to, and as I said, Tre's quicks are no joke. Still, considering Fisher and Schottenheimer's tendencies towards the run (between them, in 20 seasons they've had a positive tendency towards the pass all of three times,) I feel Mason was a necessary add in order to have another capable change of pace back alongside Benny Cunningham, to give their true workhorse some rest. That's pretty much all it adds up to.

Speaking of Fisher and Schotty, their playcalling, and the Rams offense in general, control which side of the RB1/2 fence Stacy falls on. I must admit, Alex is right in this regard; the St. Louis offense is the definition of "trudge," and the chances of them being left in the dust are all too real. Granted, I don't think they will be as poor as last year. Robinson was brought in to bolster their run-blocking and should solidify the line, and Britt has looked good in camp and has reunited with the only coach that actually got production out of him. On the other side of the ball, it seems the secondary has finally taken a leap forward, and their front four is already expected to be one of the best in the league. As long as Fisher continues to be conservative with his air game, the offense will flow through Stacy. The only problem I can foresee is the team falling behind and consequently going off-script, which is when Sam Badford tends to show up and the offensive pace goes to hell. While on the subject of his potential shortfalls, I noticed a slightly jarring similarity in Stacy's metrics to Vick Ballard, something that does put me off a bit. Then again, Ballard's been a top-30 back before with far less to work with in terms of talent and support, so maybe it's just jitters.

In the end, Stacy proves himself as a trustworthy running back, on a ground-and-pound team that's sure to feed him like a mastiff after Thanksgiving. It may sound surprising at this point, but I actually consider him closer to the RB2 side of the fence, due to absolute unpredictability of the Rams' air game and its potential to crumble to the point where the defense cannot bail them out. However, he's my second-best choice for a late-second round back (right there with Le'Veon), arguably the most steady and reliable of any outside the early first round studs. I'd put him squarely in the top 15 with upside that scratches at a top-ten finish. Draft him as if he were 2011 Steven Jackson, and you'll get what you paid for.

--Lucio Leone