- Rashad Jennings: Rising in the third round, and after the team's poor aerial performance on the 16th, he's bound to inflate even more. Steer clear.
- Bernard Pierce: His "starts" in the preseason, plus a minor injury to Ray Rice, are pushing him up boards. To me, anything past a fourth rounder is still absolutely worth it, especially in keeper leagues; Kubiak could make a run game out of paperclips and tape.
- Zach Ertz: Shot up like a cannon after a big effort against the Patriots and subsequent comparisons to Big Jimmy made by Pats linebackers. He's not a secret anymore.
- Eric Decker/Rueben Randle: Both falling slightly due to their absence from exhibition games. Lap up the spoils.
With that out of the way, on to the next RB corps.
In a bit of a change-up, I feel obligated to begin with Spiller's backfield partner, the thunder to his lightning, the ageless Fred Jackson. The Bills split inside runs and catches between the two of them almost 50-50 last year, and it looks to be a staple this season as well. One important factor separates the two of them in fantasy, though; FredEx delivers touchdowns (HAH!) thanks to his role as the red-zone back. At 33 years old, Jackson is the oldest RB in the league, yet just got an extension from the Bills. Granted, between the Buffalo staff not exactly representing paramount business conduct and the extension most likely sending a message of thanks and good faith to one of the franchise's cornerstones, I wouldn't read too much into the extension. It holds more against Spiller and the organization's future plans for him, assuming those plans do not simply read "trade before his contract runs out." Jackson's age and high career usage definitely run contrary to my usual mandates against older backs, but every rule has its exception. Jackson's topped six total scores and 1100 all-purpose yards every year since he turned 30 (except for Spiller's magical 2012). Nicks and bruises have not accumulated on FredEx as much as backs half his age so far, either. The Bills, with scattershot EJ Manuel under center, must run effectively to open up their pass game, and obviously trust Jackson more than CJ to keep the offensive engine sputtering.
My feelings on Bishop Sankey fluctuate wildly through a given week. Sometimes he's a future star, other times Shonn Greene eats him for breakfast; I'm convinced the weather is steadier and easier to predict than how I'll see him tomorrow. However, concrete facts present a decent argument for him as a rosterable, starting asset to a team. Sankey's Combine measurables blew the doors off most other attendees, with a 103 speed score and absurd 10.75 agility score; with such measurements, he compares favorably to Ahmad Bradshaw, Ray Rice, and even Edgerrin James, among others (credit to Shawn Siegele for the score and comps). In college, he fit a three-down role nicely, and has the size-speed balance necessary to enjoy at least some goal-line success. Tennessee bestowed upon him the potentially dubious honor of coming off the board before any other RB, after cutting ties with former star CJ?K, qualifying the team's faith in him as their future halfback. Unlike most drafters, I see little reason to worry about Greene's presence on the roster. He's an old, supremely uninspiring "athlete" at this point in his career, and I fully expect the farce of his goal-line use to fade as the year goes on. What does turn me off somewhat, though, are Ken Whisenhunt's hiring and the signing of Dex McCluster. Whiz has proven he will not shy away from committee backfields if it presents the most upside for the team, and Dex fits perfectly as his new Danny Woodhead, siphoning targets and goal-line looks from Sankey. In the context of this study, though, that's perfectly alright. The rookie runner doesn't need to be Alfred Morris or even Zac Stacy his first year to return value at his current price tag. Spiller hopers chase an improvement on last year's inadequate 201-927-2 line last year, and Sankey can easily outperform that with less working against him scheme-wise. His ceiling may be a bit lower than Spiller's due to the latter's ridiculous talent, but better usage compensates on the other end, making him a much safer bet to return a positive investment.
Bill Belichick seems like the kind of guy who would use the word "gigglepuss" to demean a player who'd disappointed him. Right now, by way of divine intervention, Stevan Ridley has dug himself out of the gigglepuss doghouse and is running as the first-team RB in New England again. Ridley, in the past, bestowed upon fake footballers mounds of evidence to support rostering him, even under duress: he finished 2012 in the top-ten at the position, and after being benched for his slippery fingers, still found paydirt seven times last season to go with almost 800 yards. Add in the fact that the Pats consistently rank among the top-three in touchdowns scored (1), and there's gobs of opportunity for Ridley to take hold of. Improvements on the other side of the ball just make his prospects even more mouth-watering, as the secondary nabbed Revis Island and Brandon Browner to go go with Vince Wilfork's return from injury. As Tom Brady continues his slow-yet-palpable decline, Hoodie will certainly shift further towards a power run game built on using long drives and the defense to play keep-away. The risk with Ridley, of course, lies within the strength of his finger muscles. He's already put the ball on the ground once this preseason, and as punishment split reps with rookie James White (who isn't a threat for any significant carries from the outset; on tape, he's just a guy.) Another one or two soft fumbles could spell his doom. Potential for an 1100-12 season, though, just rubs me in all the right ways, and at a few rounds lower than Spiller, it's a risk I'm far more willing to take.
As far as the "deep cuts" have gone, to this point, players haven't strayed very far into the pure lottery-ticket rounds. John Grimes, on the other hand, lays so deep under draftees that digging for him would send you through the planet to China, Looney Tunes-style. Yet, this year, he may be my potential top "gamebreaker," a true waiver gem. Grimes has seized the throne behind Arian Foster, to this point defending his depth chart position well. Admittedly, I had to look up his stats, measures, and all that good stuff to even know who the kid was, so here's what I found: Grimes is William and Mary's all-time leading rusher at almost five-thousand yards, clocked a 4.55 40-yard dash last year at the Combine, and most importantly, sports a glittery 10.87 agility score. Compared to every back behind him on the Texans' roster, Grimes is Walter Friggin' Payton. William Powell and Ronnie Brown have experience, which Belichick disciple Bill O'Brien likely values in players, but they're absolutely washed up at this point and only provide emergency depth (something Houston proved they require last year). But King Lucio, you may wonder, why would you recommend I replace a starting back with an unproven sophomore behind one of the best backs in the league? Ah, reader, I admire your inquisitiveness. I agree that Foster has earned his place among the top modern-day RBs in both real football and fantasy, but his day is coming very soon. Foster is going on 28 years old, already peering at the decline cliff from the first part of this RB article, and has logged more career touches than almost any active runner in the NFL. Oh, plus he had a surgical knife plunged into his back about ten months ago, and has sit out most of this offseason with additional soft-tissue injuries (a major red flag indicating when a halfback's body is finally breaking down). Simply put, I have no faith in Foster's health lasting even half the season. When he's on the field, he's an absolute pinball, but I can't see him giving us much namaste in the endzone with his body in such dire straits. Houston is historically a ground-first team, O'Brien has employed strong run games in college, and Ryan "Hahvahd" Fitzpatrick now controls when and how the ball gets into Andre Johnson's triple-covered arms. Hence, investing in the man behind the legend is not only savvy, it's almost downright required. Since Andre Brown's release, he's been inching up draft boards, but still hangs around fellow top handcuffs Donald Brown and James Starks in the last two rounds. According to Sports Injury Predictor, Foster has a 98 percent chance of going back on the shelf this year; I'd certainly gamble against two-out-of-100 with a few penny stocks.
--Lucio Leone
Offender: CJ Spiller, ADP 3.10/RB17
Arbitrage All-Stars: Bishop Sankey 5.1, Stevan Ridley 6.1, Fred Jackson 8.8
Deep Cut: John Grimes (undrafted)
 |
| Get off me, child's play |
I spent a chunk of change on CJ Spiller last year, taking him in the first round like so many others had. I believed the hype, I bought Doug Marrone's story of feeding Spiller so much "he throws up," I'd seen what the man could do in space. So many people felt the hot sting that only a first-round bust can provide, staring at the scoreboard week after week, praying on stat corrections. Don't think I'm spitting bias at him as a result, though. Luckily, I had traded him before that season began, thanks to a feeling that manifested after the draft and rattled around the back of my head like loose bolts: this doesn't feel like the right choice. Lo and behold, we see Spiller drop out of the first two rounds this year and into mid-RB2 territory. He has all the trappings of a rebound candidate: well in his prime, coming off an injury-marred season, entering the final year of his contract and battling new blood for his roster spot. However, it seems all of this speculation has been priced into his draft spot, and then some, raising the first red flag. Drafters are paying for aether, essentially, which almost always spells disappointment. Spiller has been splitting reps with Fred Jackson all through camp and the preseason, and looks to be suffering the same problems he did last year. The coaching staff looks to have a hard time scheming him into space, where he thrives, and are still pulling him on third-down and red-zone plays. Spiller, this year, reminds me of post-2K Chris Johnson: a streaky home-run hitter without reliable endzone trips to prop him up on the down weeks. Dripping with talent, he could easily win weeks if given the chance, but so many obstacles block him from being that roster savior we all saw in 2012. Only the itchiest gamblers should be drafting him so early, so unless you're one of those nuts that slams their car keys on table chasing a backdoor straight, I'd fold on him.
In a bit of a change-up, I feel obligated to begin with Spiller's backfield partner, the thunder to his lightning, the ageless Fred Jackson. The Bills split inside runs and catches between the two of them almost 50-50 last year, and it looks to be a staple this season as well. One important factor separates the two of them in fantasy, though; FredEx delivers touchdowns (HAH!) thanks to his role as the red-zone back. At 33 years old, Jackson is the oldest RB in the league, yet just got an extension from the Bills. Granted, between the Buffalo staff not exactly representing paramount business conduct and the extension most likely sending a message of thanks and good faith to one of the franchise's cornerstones, I wouldn't read too much into the extension. It holds more against Spiller and the organization's future plans for him, assuming those plans do not simply read "trade before his contract runs out." Jackson's age and high career usage definitely run contrary to my usual mandates against older backs, but every rule has its exception. Jackson's topped six total scores and 1100 all-purpose yards every year since he turned 30 (except for Spiller's magical 2012). Nicks and bruises have not accumulated on FredEx as much as backs half his age so far, either. The Bills, with scattershot EJ Manuel under center, must run effectively to open up their pass game, and obviously trust Jackson more than CJ to keep the offensive engine sputtering.
My feelings on Bishop Sankey fluctuate wildly through a given week. Sometimes he's a future star, other times Shonn Greene eats him for breakfast; I'm convinced the weather is steadier and easier to predict than how I'll see him tomorrow. However, concrete facts present a decent argument for him as a rosterable, starting asset to a team. Sankey's Combine measurables blew the doors off most other attendees, with a 103 speed score and absurd 10.75 agility score; with such measurements, he compares favorably to Ahmad Bradshaw, Ray Rice, and even Edgerrin James, among others (credit to Shawn Siegele for the score and comps). In college, he fit a three-down role nicely, and has the size-speed balance necessary to enjoy at least some goal-line success. Tennessee bestowed upon him the potentially dubious honor of coming off the board before any other RB, after cutting ties with former star CJ?K, qualifying the team's faith in him as their future halfback. Unlike most drafters, I see little reason to worry about Greene's presence on the roster. He's an old, supremely uninspiring "athlete" at this point in his career, and I fully expect the farce of his goal-line use to fade as the year goes on. What does turn me off somewhat, though, are Ken Whisenhunt's hiring and the signing of Dex McCluster. Whiz has proven he will not shy away from committee backfields if it presents the most upside for the team, and Dex fits perfectly as his new Danny Woodhead, siphoning targets and goal-line looks from Sankey. In the context of this study, though, that's perfectly alright. The rookie runner doesn't need to be Alfred Morris or even Zac Stacy his first year to return value at his current price tag. Spiller hopers chase an improvement on last year's inadequate 201-927-2 line last year, and Sankey can easily outperform that with less working against him scheme-wise. His ceiling may be a bit lower than Spiller's due to the latter's ridiculous talent, but better usage compensates on the other end, making him a much safer bet to return a positive investment.
Bill Belichick seems like the kind of guy who would use the word "gigglepuss" to demean a player who'd disappointed him. Right now, by way of divine intervention, Stevan Ridley has dug himself out of the gigglepuss doghouse and is running as the first-team RB in New England again. Ridley, in the past, bestowed upon fake footballers mounds of evidence to support rostering him, even under duress: he finished 2012 in the top-ten at the position, and after being benched for his slippery fingers, still found paydirt seven times last season to go with almost 800 yards. Add in the fact that the Pats consistently rank among the top-three in touchdowns scored (1), and there's gobs of opportunity for Ridley to take hold of. Improvements on the other side of the ball just make his prospects even more mouth-watering, as the secondary nabbed Revis Island and Brandon Browner to go go with Vince Wilfork's return from injury. As Tom Brady continues his slow-yet-palpable decline, Hoodie will certainly shift further towards a power run game built on using long drives and the defense to play keep-away. The risk with Ridley, of course, lies within the strength of his finger muscles. He's already put the ball on the ground once this preseason, and as punishment split reps with rookie James White (who isn't a threat for any significant carries from the outset; on tape, he's just a guy.) Another one or two soft fumbles could spell his doom. Potential for an 1100-12 season, though, just rubs me in all the right ways, and at a few rounds lower than Spiller, it's a risk I'm far more willing to take.
As far as the "deep cuts" have gone, to this point, players haven't strayed very far into the pure lottery-ticket rounds. John Grimes, on the other hand, lays so deep under draftees that digging for him would send you through the planet to China, Looney Tunes-style. Yet, this year, he may be my potential top "gamebreaker," a true waiver gem. Grimes has seized the throne behind Arian Foster, to this point defending his depth chart position well. Admittedly, I had to look up his stats, measures, and all that good stuff to even know who the kid was, so here's what I found: Grimes is William and Mary's all-time leading rusher at almost five-thousand yards, clocked a 4.55 40-yard dash last year at the Combine, and most importantly, sports a glittery 10.87 agility score. Compared to every back behind him on the Texans' roster, Grimes is Walter Friggin' Payton. William Powell and Ronnie Brown have experience, which Belichick disciple Bill O'Brien likely values in players, but they're absolutely washed up at this point and only provide emergency depth (something Houston proved they require last year). But King Lucio, you may wonder, why would you recommend I replace a starting back with an unproven sophomore behind one of the best backs in the league? Ah, reader, I admire your inquisitiveness. I agree that Foster has earned his place among the top modern-day RBs in both real football and fantasy, but his day is coming very soon. Foster is going on 28 years old, already peering at the decline cliff from the first part of this RB article, and has logged more career touches than almost any active runner in the NFL. Oh, plus he had a surgical knife plunged into his back about ten months ago, and has sit out most of this offseason with additional soft-tissue injuries (a major red flag indicating when a halfback's body is finally breaking down). Simply put, I have no faith in Foster's health lasting even half the season. When he's on the field, he's an absolute pinball, but I can't see him giving us much namaste in the endzone with his body in such dire straits. Houston is historically a ground-first team, O'Brien has employed strong run games in college, and Ryan "Hahvahd" Fitzpatrick now controls when and how the ball gets into Andre Johnson's triple-covered arms. Hence, investing in the man behind the legend is not only savvy, it's almost downright required. Since Andre Brown's release, he's been inching up draft boards, but still hangs around fellow top handcuffs Donald Brown and James Starks in the last two rounds. According to Sports Injury Predictor, Foster has a 98 percent chance of going back on the shelf this year; I'd certainly gamble against two-out-of-100 with a few penny stocks.
--Lucio Leone
2014 Foster:
ReplyDelete2150 total yards
23 total TDs
yeah i just relistened to that and still think you need to be committed to psych ward for that projection
ReplyDelete