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Sunday, February 15, 2015

Antique Hunt: Lower-Tier Running Back Prospects in the 2015 NFL Draft

Clinton Portis. Edgerrin James. LaDanian Tomlinson. One often thinks of these men as relics of an epoch long passed, the last of the true feature backs. Yet, we saw them play not more than ten years ago, putting clown suits on safeties and linebackers hoping to make a play, so how is it that we now see them in grainy black-and-white? In such a small time frame, the evolution of the NFL to a high-flying pass-first league became more pronounced than ever; receivers grew larger and ran faster, the "basketball tight end" found its way into color commentary lexicon, and multiple quarterbacks either threatened or outright shattered yardage records as 5,000 became the new 4,000. Though the old ground-and-pound mentality still drew breath in remote corners of the country, everyone sang the virtues of attacking defenses through the air to win.

LDT swats at a fly
...That is, until last year. As I mentioned in a previous draft article, a substantial number of teams took the air out of the ball, so to speak, and returned their offenses to a more harmonious balance of land and sky. While some coordinators still tried to mask subpar defenses or lackluster personnel by piling on points and yards in a bid to outpace their leaks, teams like San Diego, Cincinnati, Dallas, and eventually Denver turned to attrition, wearing out opponents on the back of their running back platoons. Such a shift was not a new phenomenon, of course, as any West Coast team would quickly portend. The difference came from teams that previously hung on boisterous pass schemes had turned the league on its ear by successfully marginalizing the pass and scheming around its counterpart, as teams that did the opposite (such as Washington and San Francisco) met with failure. Arguably, the importance of it all capped in the final seconds of the Super Bowl, encapsulating the abject failure in abandoning the run. Now, we look towards an offseason of reconstruction, which promises to reflect the effects of those last-minute shockwaves. It could not have come with a better crop of hopeful rookies. April's draft promises a king's wealth of offensive talent, but no position has received more press than running back. Scouts clamor to peg this RB class as summarily the best in a decade, and posit that a similar run on backs as in the "anachronistic" 2008 draft could transpire when draft weekend arrives. Such praise appears vapid at a glance; after all, the last decade gifted us transcendent athletes like Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Frank Gore, Maurice Jones-Drew, Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles... the list could take up a page on its own. However, while these men highlight the best at their position, they were spread over many years' worth of drafts. This coming group sports fringe-first and second-rounders stretching well into the third day, thanks in part to the phenomenal depth at the position. I'm excited to see how their stories will shake out, so I've chosen to highlight a few underrated backs that occupy the tiers below consensus phenoms Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon. 
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Duke Johnson

5'9", 206 pounds
Best comparison: Andre Ellington/C.J. Spiller
Tape versus Virginia Tech, 2014:

Johnson left his name emblazoned on Miami's records plaque after outpacing the aforementioned Portis and James, seizing the school's all-time rushing lead. At a compact five-foot-nine and 206 pounds, he's not pushing any piles, especially not at the professional level. Duke shines as a speed back, with a wild second gear and flashy quickness that make him dirty in space. More important, to me at least, is his stellar vision and processing speed. One scout recently declared his sight as "eagle-eye ... as if he were looking at the field from overhead." Duke picked out and diagnosed creases better than almost any of his peers, which is an essential quality for any back to have, let alone one of his small stature and lacking strength. His size also gives him a slight edge on tacklers, making him a smaller target and mitigating some of his shortcomings as a block-shedder. Out of the backfield, Johnson sports plus ball skills and puts his football intelligence to work in pass protection, taking good angles on would-be rushers. Many coaches expect him to stumble through the typical growing pains a rookie must face, as he adjusts to the speed of the game and much tighter margin for error behind the line. His size also imparts durability concerns if a team chooses to run him between the tackles at a regular clip. There doesn't seem to be much Johnson can do to rehab the issues his low strength and featherweight build cause, as putting on weight threatens to sap some of his elite speed and footwork. The Duke has a lot to like going for him and with some luck he can absolutely carry a team (like fellow U alum Frank Gore, who entered the league close to the same size), but I see him settling into a Giovani Bernard or Ahmad Bradshaw-like role in the pros, the 1A to a bigger back's 1B.
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David Cobb
5'11", 220 pounds
Best comparison: Alfred Morris
Tape versus San Jose State, 2014:

Shifting gears a bit, we turn from a slippery blitz runner in Johnson to a hammer back in David Cobb. Cobb rose up many big boards as the offseason commenced, shifting from anonymous face to possible second-day selection on the back of respectable all-around skills. Minnesota hasn't seen a successful pro back walk out its doors since Marion Barber (unless you count Laurence Maroney), but some scouts believe Cobb has the opportunity to buck that trend. He touts a 5.2 yards per carry average from his last college season while carrying the mail for the Golden Gophers. For my purposes, Cobb's plus vision and instincts stand as his most critical asset; he consistently lets plays develop and spies which crease to hit, an even more impressive feat considering Minnesota's Lego-strength offensive line. Excellent body control also lets him flow and adjust well on the move, forcing bad angles when he gets to the second level. Unfortunately, until the Combine comes, Cobb has little else to hang his hat on compared to other backs in the class. Outside of the aforementioned vision and fluidity, he lacks real superlatives: his speed is only above-average, he's not particularly quick or shifty, and will often get caught from behind. One scout fittingly described him as, "more efficient than dynamic ... mostly a [single-gear] runner." Another dire red flag is his tendency to play smaller than his actual strength, going down a bit too easily on contact and appearing lethargic in pass protection. Right now, Cobb seems like a less-agile Alfred Morris with sizable room to grow. A sub-4.6 forty yard dash and good performance in the shuttle drills would immeasurably aid his bid to escape day three of the draft and eventually battle for snaps as a rookie.
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Tevin Coleman
6'1", 210 pounds
Best comparison: DeMarco Murray/Darren McFadden
Tape versus Indiana State, 2014 (please excuse the toaster quality):

From an athletic standpoint, Coleman's ceiling rests higher than my other second-tier choices. He's the prototypical "natural runner," boasting great long speed to pull away at the second level and a razor's-edge first cut. While his burst off the line isn't lightning, Coleman's lower-body control allows him to smoothly affect his trajectory at a consistent speed; if a lane he's chosen mutates a bit, he can adjust for it without slowing down and sacrificing the play. Teammates have described him as a stock-car, one who, "...redlines his engine on every play." Coleman's decisive, determined effort when called upon reflects their sentiments. He keeps his legs moving against walls and can throw a violent, earth-shaking stiff arm. On the other hand, he treats every run like it's a sprint, lacking the patience to let plays develop due to his thirst for the home-run. He's got reels of tape pockmarked with missed cutback lanes and botched screens. At six-foot-one, his pad level is often somewhat high which increases his risk of both fumbling and racking up injuries. In spite of his shortcomings, it's hard for me to not drool over Coleman's highlights. He's a force out of the backfield, giving any offense an immediate playmaker. While the jury is still out on how consistent his eyes and instincts may be, patience and subtlety will come with time, and with some polish he can grow into a new-age workhorse. Besides, it's much better to have to coach an athlete to play with less fervor and spirit than he already does, as opposed to somehow inspiring one to work harder. Just ask Ryan Leaf''s coaches.

--Lucio Leone

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