Rumors of our death have been mildly exaggerated. To our readers and listeners, we apologize for such a long downtime; the cacophonous outside world tends to swallow our free time like a wormhole. Rest assured, we intend to make a concerted effort towards providing stellar content for y'all regularly once again, however long it may take to reenact. In the meantime, we sashay into yet another NFL offseason, rife with men that we fancifully stack on top of rosters like Lego blocks. Every team, even the champions, earn their yearly clean slate, and hypothetical potential is at its peak. Naturally, this leads to some whimsical speculation on my part; I figured I may as well spill a handful of my usual diatribes onto the page, which grew into the longform mass of pixels below. I do hope you enjoy a few of my cursory thoughts on the top free agents for this coming offseason, and the possible fantasy implications therein.
RISE FROM YOUR GRAVE!
Top Offensive Free Agents
(in no particular order)
Running Backs Offensive Linemen
1. DeMarco Murray 1. Bryan Bulaga
2. Ryan Mathews 2. Mike Iupati
3. Mark Ingram 3. Orlando Franklin
4. CJ Spiller 4. Michael Roos
5. Roy Helu 5. Doug Free/Jeremy Parnell
6. Stevan Ridley 6. Brian De La Puente
The offensive pool of free agents, as it currently stands, boasts some major landscape-shifting power in the fantasy world; though not the most spectacular group in history, the top available running backs in particular may sculpt the opening rounds of many a draft, with the reigning Offensive Player Of the Year DeMarco Murray leading the charge. You've certainly heard all there is to hear about he and the Cowboys' impressive season, so I'll reign in my gushing and outline the essentials. Until very recently, nearly everyone considered Murray a goner in Dallas, a victim of both Jerry Jones' ever-declining cap management and the perceived devaluation of runners in the modern league. As a result, Dallas remains a hotspot for any back that ends up wearing the star, and most potential suitors are expected to vault into at least the mid-second round of drafts should a match coalesce. Depending on who pays Murray the most, he should remain a high-round pick as well, and if he and the Cowboys can hash out a deal (which many beat writers have posited became far more likely as of this week), he may consistently fall off the board at number one. Everyone knows Murray's injury history rivals Dickensian literature in length, a contentious point that will dominate any decisions made about him in reality and fantasy alike. 2014 marked the young stud's first complete professional season, and playcaller Scott Linehan rode him like a steed into Hell (a mind-blowing 437 attempts by the end of their playoff run), exacerbating his risk of missing time in the future. The counterpoint, of course, is that Murray boasts a career 4.8 YPC, legitimately elite balance, a dangerous second gear, cushion hands, and terrific vision; his value to an offense cannot be understated. Multiple teams (Dallas, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Houston, even Denver as the year wore on) worked towards balancing their offenses this past season as well, returning previously-deteriorated reverence to Murray's and other backs' skills. He'll get what he's due.
While the list suffers a pretty substantial drop-off after Murray, Mathews, Ridley, and Ingram have proven themselves as successful feature backs, despite the baggage they tote along (injuries, fumbling). All three succeeded behind average-at-best lines, and should be sought after by a handful of teams. Indianapolis in particular should do their homework on these three before the draft, having all but ended the disastrous Trent Richardson saga, unlikely to resign the tragically-fragile Ahmad Bradshaw, and rostering only JAGs (just-a-guy) in Dan Herron and Vick Ballard behind them. Last year proved Andrew Luck and the talented young Colts receiving corps threaten all levels of the defense while absent a consistent run element, greatly boosting a feature back's fantasy floor (aforementioned JAG Herron squeezed out 10 standard points per game between week 12 and the end of the regular season.) Meanwhile, Spiller has been aimed by pundits towards New York, replacing CJ?K in a grand reunion with retread Jets offensive coordinator Chan Gailey (infamously the last coordinator to utilize him "correctly.") Looking at the 2012 Bills' RB splits and comparing it to the Jets' two-headed backfield inspires some confidence in Spiller's possible usage. The Christophers Johnson and Ivory combined for 61 targets last season, only 18th in the league overall; Spiller alone ate up 57 targets in 2012, with Fred Jackson taking on another 40 or so. With Ivory as the two-down thumper and the Jets certain to trot out either a green-horned rookie (some of the more fanciful mocks are sending either the Duck or the 'Nole to New York at pick number 6) or the inimitable Geno Smith under center next season, Spiller theoretically should get his fill of shallow targets.
The wild card of the bunch is Helu, who's compiled a career 4.7 YPC (with his lost sophomore year omitted) while languishing in Washington. Helu's size and speed are optimal for a feature back, his work in the pass game remains exceptional, and he's been able to stay healthy and play through small injuries admirably. Many sports writers believe his time has come, so to speak, and a team should hand him the reins of their backfield. While Helu has long intrigued me as well and I'm eager to see what he can do in an expanded role, one must consider all the variables that come with him. While aspiring couch-coaches like me love to deride coordinators as blind fools when they sit on "the talented one" in favor of other players (a la Matt Asiata versus Jerick McKinnon or Andre Caldwell versus Cody Latimer), personnel staffers know what they're doing most of the time; hence, we have to step back and question why Helu's usage remained so sparse, or why he was handily usurped by a sixth-round rookie in 2013. This has all the trappings of a metrics darling's hype potentially obliterating reasonable expectations as the offseason marches onward.
One essential caveat to the fated "shuffling of the bulls," though, is the coming draft's much-lauded running back class. With intriguing prospects stretching well into the third day, many teams will opt to take on a dirt-cheap rookie or let the free agent market cool down in response (or both). Even if a player would fit better or produce more on a certain team in need, as roster spots fill they will be forced to follow the money, for better or for worse.
...But you already knew that. Onwards to the rest of the skill players!
Top Offensive Free Agents, continued
Wide Receivers Tight Ends
1. Demariyus Thomas 1. Jordan Cameron
2. Dez Bryant 2. Julius Thomas
3. Jeremy Maclin 3. Niles Paul
4. Randall Cobb 4. Charles Clay
5. Torrey Smith 5. Jermaine Gresham
6. Michael Crabtree
At a glance, the wide receiver list appears rife with talent, but it's somewhat illusory; three of the top six listed above (Bryant, Maclin, and Smith) are locks to re-up with their respective organizations, while odds of the other three leaving for greener pastures range from "slim" to "coin flip" to "the locker's already half-empty." Whispers floating down the airstream claim that Eric Decker is trying to lull his friend and former teammate Thomas to the Jets, which is just adorable. Unless new GM Mike Maccagnan sets aside a massive chunk of their cap space for Thomas, cuts Percy Harvin loose, and finds the magic lamp from Aladdin, Denver will lock up their star for the long haul. However, on the off chance tempers change and Thomas packs his bags for the Big Apple, a major fantasy coup would precipitate. While he's obviously lost a lot of gunpowder from the old rifle arm, Peyton Manning is still giant-forehead-and-shoulders above whoever starts under center for Gang Green next season. Chan Gailey designs creative and exemplary game plans, but he would without a doubt focus on a ground attack, while Denver's new OC Gary Kubiak (as I've pointed out on multiple occasions) loves to feed his X-receiver. A relocation so momentous would result in an equally-significant PPG swing for Thomas in the coming years.
Cobb and Crabtree are the two top-end wideouts I expect to strike off into the great unknown, albeit for different reasons. Green Bay's slot man, Cobb had a career year en route to 91/1287/12; though his ability would be sorely missed, that stat line may have priced him out of Ted Thompson's plans. As season pass holder on the Jeff Janis Express, I have absolutely no problems with that. The Packers are nurturing a talented young nucleus in Janis, Jared Abbrederis, and potential slot replacement Davante Adams behind star Jordy Nelson, and could see fit to let Cobb walk if a team offers him Victor Cruz money. Plus, that A. A. Ron RodGers jabroni is decent enough to elevate the talent around him as the youngsters get acclimated. Cobb's value then hinges on his new surroundings, but with a reasonable expectation of 120 to 150 targets as a team's new top inside receiver, the numbers should follow. Crabtree, on the other hand, has burned through his draft pedigree with perennially subpar play, failing to fill the dynamic playmaker role San Francisco needed. Last year, Crabtree bottomed out, unable to top even 700 yards and mired in sluggish play. Some of the blame must go to his environment, from Colin Kaepernick's major regression as a passer to Jim Harbaugh not even bothering to phone it in as the weeks passed. Among the recent flurry of superhuman returns from ligament tears, though, Crabtree's post-ACL-surgery season was a bucket of cold water shocking us back to reality; his explosiveness had been sapped by the injury, and he may be staring down a future in possession roles only. This offseason, between who signs Crabtree and how he progresses in camp, will be key to judging whether he can approach fantasy relevance again. I hope he can bounce back, but I have my doubts. Expect him to settle on an oft-maligned "one-year-prove-it deal" with a spendthrift organization.
Tight end can simultaneously be the most exciting and most drab position on offense, due in part to the fact that there's only one Rob Gronkowski to crush cans of Pabst on his forehead in the endzone. The top available tight ends each fit a slightly different niche, from the versatile H-back Clay to the athletic splash-play Paul, but they all share a lot of black marks on their records. Cameron and Thomas, preseason favorites to challenge the top of the position, offered only disappointment sparsely pocked with outstanding performances. Almost anyone who toughed through Cleveland's last two seasons knows of Cameron's impressive athleticism and ball skills, but his concussion history is approaching Jahvid Best-levels of danger; every "next one" may be his last as an NFLer. Conversely, Orange Julius is a touch safer than Cameron and boasts even softer hands, but offers far less as an athlete and no run blocking whatsoever. He runs a moderate risk of injury as well, and will command the highest price of his peers due to the Manning effect. Paul, like his former teammate Helu, put together a flashy yet truncated resume in the Capitol this year. Of the top five listed, he has the highest potential return on investment for needy teams thanks to his bargain-bin price tag and aforementioned upside. Similarly, Clay should be a cheaper yet phenomenally useful chess piece for a creative playcaller to toy around with, but his value to fake footballers hangs on landing in just the right situation due to inevitably fickle usage. Gresham is sure to follow the money after landing the top overall pass-blocking rank amongst tight ends last season, and like Clay, will probably be more useful in real-life than fantasy. A more consequential effect of Gresham parting ways with the team is that, in his absence, Tyler Eifert assumes the full-time move tight end role in Cincy. While Andy Dalton's JAG badge has been stamped with an official expiration date of "never," Eifert's abilities make me drool, and he would ideally vault up the Bengals' top-heavy hierarchy to become the number two beneath A.J. Green's number one.
Top Defensive Line Free Agents
Edge Defenders (OLB/DE) Interior Linemen
1. Justin Houston 1. Ndamukong Suh
2. Jerry Hughes 2. Terrance Knighton
3. Pernell McPhee 3. CJ Mosley
4. Jason Pierre-Paul 4. Nick Fairley
5. Jabaal Sheard 5. Jared Odrick
6. Brian Orakpo 6. Stephen Paea
While the skill position players will inevitably lap up all the offseason headlines, the defensive free agent class of 2015 collectively boasts some of the best talent seen in the last decade. All eyes will primarily train lasers on Suh, whose legendary talent and long streak of questionable sportsmanship, along with Detroit's awful cap management (a fitting crisis for the city's representative franchise), have woven into a bombastic storyline. Recent rumors peg Oakland and Cincinnati as possible landing spots, with some also believing Suh might squeeze under Detroit's cap through strenuous economic wizardry. Beneath him, the totem pole crowds up near the top, with all of Knighton, Mosley, Odrick, and possibly Fairley able to instantly galvanize almost every defensive line; each one brings positive run-plugging and, more importantly, pocket-crashing ability. On the edge, a similar situation arises, with all the top rushers (aside from the primarily run-stopping Sheard) considered potential queens on the defensive chess board. As the mantra goes, a good defense is built front-to-back, and each of these players ensures a team can regularly win the trench battle. With the coming draft class poised to run deep on pass rush talent, pairing these players with high-upside and receptive draftees can realistically launch a defensive squad into the league's upper echelons. Of course, football does not exist in a vacuum; of the top twelve linemen, Hughes, Mosley, and Houston are strongly expected to stay put as foundations for their respective teams, and Odrick has a decent shot at remaining in South Beach due to Dion Jordan's struggles.
Historically, an underrated judge of fantasy players' success stems from the quality of their defense. Often, analysts will prattle on about how poor defenses lead high scores by encouraging shootouts, but this usually only works in specifically-planned situations and can put an undue reliance on garbage time. Better defenses generally correlate with higher and more consistent offensive scoring, mainly because they help the offense to remain on-script and keep the overall game competitive. In a close game, coordinators need not diverge from the game plan much (if at all), and will strive to keep the offense balanced. The overall efficiency (in yards per attempt) of quarterbacks trailing versus leading changes by mere decimal points, but a trailing QB will average twice the pass attempts; by that logic, more attempts will increase the chance of amassing more yards and more interceptions simultaneously, having an overall negligible effect on their score. Pass catchers can absorb more targets in such situations at the expense of running back carries, but these often come as a result of desperation (the aforementioned garbage time) rather than an attempt to keep pace with an equally-high-motor offense. In addition, more teams are following a model the two Western conferences have toyed with, which is a return to ball-control to mask a poor defense. Outside of a small handful of running backs that carry the mail as offensive centerpieces (two of whom are listed as top free agents above), this lowers the overall production by both offenses. In general, a solid defense does just as much good for an offense as proper playcalling and skill positions, even for the purposes of fake football.
--Lucio Leone
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