- Oh boy, a mock draft, how original and specific! Be still my beating heart. This is a very rough, prototypical mock of the 2015 NFL Draft's first round. I tried to stay true to how most teams tend to draft, gave credence to both need and best-player-available (BPA) mindsets, and even threw in a little shakeup. Enjoy.
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| If you need me, I'll be over here for the next few months |
- Tampa Bay - Jameis Winston, QB/Crab Leg Poacher
Google "jameis tampa" if you need a real explanation; less has been written about the Spanish Revolution than this pick. I expect Winston to successfully convince teams his past infractions amount to a maturity issue that he plans to leave in his past, whether it's true or not, and land the top spot this year. - Tennessee - Randy Gregory, DE/OLB
Zach Mettenberger put some good things on tape last season, and Ken Whisenhunt seems interested in the challenge of developing him. This would allow the Titans to pick up the top pass-rusher and pray for a Khalil Mack rerun in blue. Drafting Gregory would only be a drop in the bucket for the dour Titans, but it helps a bunch. - Jacksonville - Len Williams, DE/DT
Gregory would have offered a more useful pure pass-rush aspect to the young Jacksonville defense, especially in the wake of Sen'Derrick Marks' ACL tear. Getting the more versatile, interior-friendly Williams shouldn't lose anyone sleep, though. Recently compared to Michael Bennett, Williams' pocket-bursting ability will be essential to taking pressure off the still-raw secondary, and can help them compete against Andrew Luck. - Oakland - Amari Cooper, WR
David Carr must have cried into a pint of Phish Food after this season, seeing how his little brother showed him up in almost every way. Now, the Raiders can start generating a nucleus for their man to aid his development. While Cooper gets knocked for his slightly lacking speed, his size and ball skills have drawn more than one comparison to another notable Crimson Tide alum. Even as a Rod Streater apologist, I can't pass that up. - St. Louis (via Washington) - Marcus Mariota, QB
And boom goes the dynamite! With all the unrest in the Rams' organization concerning their potential relocation, and Sam Bradford starting to develop bedsores from all his time in the infirmary, the St. Louis front office must be awfully tempted to instill some pride and confidence in the team. Hence, the team poetically trades up with Washington to snipe the Duck at number five. Last year, the Rams' defense transcended to a full-force terror, and their offensive skill positions undoubtedly elevated Austin Davis' play. Bradford's journey has been riddled with awful luck, but his cost is an absolute back breaker. Plus, with the departure of Jim Harbaugh and numerous potential free agency losses elsewhere in the NFC West, a window has cracked ever so slightly open for the Rams to attack the top spot. - New York Jets - Shane Ray, DE/OLB
Incumbent GM Mike MacCagnan is staring down quite a reconstruction project in East Rutherford. The pass rush isn't exactly aging like wine, none of the cornerbacks on the roster should ever start multiple games, the quarterback depth chart is an abject mess, and three of their offensive linemen moonlight as subway turnstiles. Considered a talent guru and with cap money to spare, Mac can swing a few deals in free agency; hence, he and new coach Todd Bowles will likely enter April planning on a BPA approach. Ray is Sunday-ready with great burst off the line, and can give Calvin Pace a breather on the edge. - Chicago - Dante Fowler Jr., DE/OLB
Personally, I like Fowler more as a prospect than Ray; he shows more fluid hand usage, boasts a wider repertoire of rush moves, and seems to run with a higher motor. However, Fowler's consistency never reached a truly comfortable level in his career, which will inevitably push him below Ray. Thus, Fowler goes one spot after Ray, to the similarly defensive-challenged Bears. Though their safety corps is in shambles, at least there's bankable youth on the back-end; up front, Chicago is old, infirm, and otherwise riddled with busts. Depending on what transpires concerning Stephen Paea's contract, Ego Ferguson's development, and the health of Willie Young/Lamarr Houston, Chicago may also take a peek at Danny Shelton here. - Atlanta - Vic Beasley, DE/OLB
Atlanta feels the effects of the Mariota trade as well, losing out on more complete DE's Ray and Fowler. With their intense need for pocket pressure and Dan Quinn's defensive schemes, the Falcons are forced to reach a smidge for one of the next-tier OLBs. Vic Beasley strengthened his stock by returning to school last year, and brings a more fitting mix of game-readiness and ability that Quinn can coax instant production out of than my other possible choice of Bud Dupree. Beasley's first step is a flash, and can slot in to terrorize even mobile passers (which will be essential in the NFC South with Cam Newton and one of Mariota or Winston scrambling around). Atlanta's run defense was atrocious last year and this does little to help, as Beasley still needs work in the ground game, but Quinn should find ways to maximize his effect in a rotation early on. Stocking up on pass rush and interior defensive talent will be Atlanta's top priorities this offseason. - New York Giants - Landon Collins, S
The Giants have come out in support of their paste-eating franchise quarterback, who is coming off a bounce-back year in an effective new system. It's therefore expected the team will look towards getting him better protection. One of the top 3 offensive linemen is a popular mocked pick here, but the free agent pool is good enough that replacing Will Beatty should be easy. What won't be easy is piecing their safety corps back together; New York's top 3 safeties will be on the market this offseason, and Antrel Rolle particularly may be priced out of their budget. Collins is easily the best safety of the class, would immediately fill a huge need, and offers respectable value at 9th overall. As a little bonus, this blocks conference rival Washington from drafting him (their safety need trumps NYG's). The team could also target Gerod Holliman later on, though even I can see on tape that Holliman couldn't even tackle a varsity back. - Washington - Brandon Scherff, OG/T
Washington's secondary, outside of possible gem Bashaud Breeland, is in dire straits. DeAngelo Hall is coming off a debilitating knee injury, and none of their safeties would start in the CFL at this point. If the staff show confidence in Breeland's development, Hall may be moved to safety, which would put a flimsy bandaid on the secondary. That would free them up to patch an equally bereft squad, the offensive line. Tyler Polumbus is a bum and will be handed his papers soon, and neither guard was anything resembling decent. Leaky protection contributed to the awful quarterback play last year, as well as Bob Griffin's shellshock-fueled regression. Scherff is better suited as a guard than Andrus Peat or Ereck Flowers, which would help more in the NFC East, where interior pressure seems more common. - Minnesota - Ereck Flowers, OG/T
On the flip side, Flowers is a better pure tackle prospect than Scherff or Peat, but can still start at guard (another trouble spot) if Minny wants to give Matt Kalil another shot. The team has few glaring needs that don't return enough value at 11th overall; the inside linebacker class doesn't currently feature any top-20 picks to replace Chad Greenway, and protecting Teddy Bridgewater is more important than reaching for a receiver while Charles Johnson continues to show tons of promise. I also toyed with trading Minny down to nab T.J. Clemmings or Cedric Ogbuehi and a running back to compete with their current backfield, but Kalil has been terrible enough to warrant pushing for a replacement. - Cleveland - Danny Shelton, DT
As sad as it made me to watch, Cleveland's run defense put on some ghastly performances last year. Phil Taylor isn't panning out, and while Ishmaa'ily Kitchen touts an amazing name, he doesn't project as an upgrade. Shelton would anchor the defensive line and provide immediate aid to a squad that needs to be able to contain the likes of Le'Veon Bell and Jeremy Hill. - New Orleans - Bud Dupree, DE/OLB
An absolute no-brainer, especially after Junior Galette got himself arrested. Nobody on the Saints could tackle worth a damn last year. While their cornerback play was suspect as well, this year's cornerback class isn't worth the reach, and Keenan Lewis should get another chance to recapture his breakout form. Dupree tackles the hardest of anyone left, though he's a bit small and can be pushed around by big linemen. - Miami - Andrus Peat, OG/T
Another obvious choice, BullyGate ravaged Miami's interior line almost as bad as it did Johnathan Martin's tender feelings. Peat is a 'tweener with ideal NFL length and size, meaning he can start out on the interior and take over long-term for Branden Albert when the time comes. If the Fins looks towards filling this hole in free agency instead, a wide receiver is certainly in play here after Mike Wallace widened the schism between himself and the front office. However, in its cobbled-together state, the line must see a future-minded rebuild sooner rather than later. - San Francisco - DeVante Parker, WR
Michael Crabhands' locker is already half-packed by now, and outside of Bruce Ellington, the 49ers' wide receiver corps is old enough to have actually been part of the namesake gold rush. Frisco desperately needs a huge, fast splash player like Parker to keep the defense off Carlos Hyde's back and reel in Colin Kaepernick's sometimes-errant cannon shots.
- Houston - Trae Waynes, CB
This pick was a very close match between Waynes and Jalen Collins, but Waynes' tighter coverage and better speed gave him the edge. Quite a few mocks like to send one of the top two running backs to Houston here as an understudy for Arian Foster, but free agency over the next two years threatens to dismantle the Houston secondary. Plus, there's a wealth of RB talent to be found in the next few rounds, and the current regime is (oddly) high on their pick of Alfred Blue. With Kareem Jackson going to market this year and 32-year-old Johnathan Joseph possibly leaving the next, a young corner like Waynes can slot in and learn from the vet before he takes over. - San Diego - T.J. Clemmings, OG
The Chargers' roster is a goddamn mess coming into the offseason, with aging veterans, expiring contracts, and generally poor play in a ton of spots. They finished near the bottom in pass-rush metrics and could certainly use an OLB/DE, but were able to mask such deficiencies with a combination of good secondary play and ball control. The offensive line kept Philip Rivers running for cover, even with King Dunlap and D.J. Fluker playing over their heads. Nick Hardwick's retirement was the tipping point that forced me to send them a lineman over one of the top two RBs or an OLB. Rivers' window is closing fast, and if he dies on the field due to a defensive end crashing down on him uncovered, it would be detrimental to his chances of getting a ring before the window closes. - Kansas City - Kevin White, WR
I somewhat foolishly chided the Chiefs for taking Dee Ford in the first round last year, not realizing they'd face the Herculean challenge of resigning Justin Houston this time around. Tamba Hali is rumored to be an inevitable victim of their dealings, but Ford softens the impact. Tragically, Eric Berry's career may have been cut short by a lymphoma diagnosis, which could force KC to reach for a replacement safety, but with White still on the board, I can't logically believe they'd go in any other direction here. Dwayne Bowe has been in decline for a few years now, and everyone else that started last year is at least 30. Albert Wilson hasn't shown enough to excuse the Chiefs from picking up the lanky, high-pointing catcher. - Cleveland (from Buffalo, 2014) - Jaelen Strong, WR
I honestly expect Strong to outperform his projected forty time at the Combine by a bit, which would solidify him as a top-three wideout. You know, one of those guys the Browns used to have. Cleveland's sizable cap space allows them to pursue a top free agent receiver, but hitting a need and BPA with one pick is too perfect to pass up. Besides, their money is much better spent elsewhere (DT, OLB/DE, TE). - Philadelphia - Marcus Peters, CB
Bradley Fletcher and Cary Williams. Enough said. - Cincinnati - Bernardrick McKinney, ILB
This may seem like an odd choice, glossing over Denzel Perryman for McKinney, but it makes sense. McKinney boasts more versatility and natural size than Perryman, which would allow the Bengals to move him around and fill in rotational spots on their defensive line as well as in the middle of the field. As a projected three-down 'backer that shows plus production in both run-sealing and pass coverage, McKinney fills the very flimsy shoes left by Rey Maualuga if he departs and can rotate sparingly opposite Carlos Dunlap. - Pittsburgh - Jalen Collins, CB
Reaching for Collins here hurts, but the corner play in Pittsburgh hurts way more. Cortez Allen showed little in the way of progress after landing an extension. Ike Taylor reserved a seat in the burn ward next to Bradley Fletcher and Brandon Carr (and that burnt-as-toast joke). Collins' length and fluidity should help him succeed, though he must curb the "grabbies." - Detroit - Arik Armstead, DT
The Ndamukong Suh lottery currently has some ticket-holders, and while Detroit is working on a contract, he won't sign for less than J.J. Watt money. Armstead brims with talent and ability, yet hasn't been able to put it all together yet. Assuming C.J. Mosley and Nick Fairley stay in Detroit and Caraun Reid takes a step forward, the team can afford to take a shot on Armstead's upside. Eddie Goldman is also very much in play at 23. - Arizona - Denzel Perryman, ILB
Perryman represents another match of need fulfillment and BPA here. Arizona needs a living, breathing linebacker who isn't currently on double-secret probation, and Perryman returns some value at 24. - Carolina - Cedric Ogbuehi, OT
Like Philip Rivers, Cam Newton spent a lot of 2014 running for his life. Ogbuehi's torn ACL torpedoed his stock, but Carolina needs to take a shot on his talent with the mammoth holes their offensive line is suffering. The state recently dismissed Greg Hardy's domestic abuse charges, which inflates his price to a point where Carolina cannot compete; hence, edge rusher becomes another possible fit here. - Baltimore - Sammie Coates, WR
With Marc Trestman in town and Torrey Smith out of his rookie contract, the Ravens should be doing their homework on the receiving class of 2015. While Coates has many detractors due to his low production and raw routes, he fits the mold of Trestman's other featured catchers as size-speed freak. Gifted one of the best route-runners in the league (Smitty) as a mentor if he were to go to Baltimore, Coates' upside may capture the heart of GM Ozzie Newsome. Kevin Johnson and maybe PJ Williams could also fit as CB help for the returning Lardarius Webb. - Dallas - Eli Harold, OLB/DE
I feel queasy about this sizable reach of a pick (and it should best illustrate how hard I'm trying to remain objective throughout this exercise.) Harold's like Kobe filet mignon cooked on a radiator: top-of-the-line quality but raw as they come. Dallas' needs on the edge are far too great, though, with only Demarcus Lawrence and part-timer Jeremy Mincey on the books as of right now. DC Rod Marinelli coaxed a remarkable year out his players last season, and has a better chance than most of developing Harold into a force off the edge. Of course, there are many other directions Dallas can go in at this pick, with the most obvious other choices being an OT or Eric Kendricks, but defensive line needs trump everything else. - Denver - Malcom Brown, DT
Terrance Knighton's free agency should prove lucrative for the breakout DT, but it leaves Denver in a bit of a spot. John Elway's recent dealings, a flurry of win-now signings, have pushed them against the cap and eliminated Knighton from their plans. Sly Williams showed signs of development but can't take on the job alone. Brown can crash the pocket and plug holes equally well for Denver in a rotation with Williams. - Indianapolis - Eric Kendricks, OLB
Offensive lineman is a pressing need for the Colts, but they're priced out of almost every decent one, and their pass-rush hurts for production as well. Bjoern Werner gave some hope early in the year, but faded badly down the stretch. Kendricks is sideline-to-sideline and boasts some crazy speed, similar to Ryan Shazier in a pass-rusher's body. - Green Bay - Kevin Johnson, CB
Kendricks is the almost-ubiquitous choice at 30th overall, among the dozens of mocks I peruse, at least. Yet in this universe, he's been sniped, leaving Ted Turner's cheeseheads in a crunch. Two of Green Bay's top corners will test free agency this year, and the team seems timid on giving Micah Hyde a bigger role. Hence, they can plug Johnson in on the perimeter to mitigate their corner needs and keep the championship window open. - Seattle - Dorial Green-Beckham, WR
DGB has mountains of talent, but seems to run into just as much trouble off the field. Beggars can't be choosers, though, and the Seahawks are shaking the change can for receiving talent. I portend their last-second loss in the Super Bowl was just as much Ricardo Lockette's fault as Darrel Bevell's; if he were anything close to a legitimate receiver, he wouldn't have gotten blown up by a rookie CB. With a very tight-knit locker room and strong coaching staff to provide guidance, Seattle can afford to take a shot on his upside. - New England - Phillip Dorsett, WR
It's almost poetic that two of the more wide-receiver-needy teams were our championship opponents this year. While the team historically doesn't draft wideouts in the first round, Julian Edelman is aging and picking up more injuries, and Brandon LaFell is...himself. Dorsett can flame anyone trying to catch him and runs some great routes, adding the speedy, yards-after-catch element New England sorely misses. Adding Dorsett would also mitigate shortfalls in the champs' backfield, a position that projects as a weakness pre-draft.
In hindsight, this mock has about as much value as the gunk in your eyes at dawn, and the lack of either Melvin Gordon or Todd Gurley seems like a major snub. As draft season picks up, I expect teams to over-analyze both of them like they did Teddy Bridgewater the year before, and ultimately get cold feet about spending a first-round pick on a running back. Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, and David Wilson all remain fresh in the league's often-limited memory.
...Also, I'm praying one of them (or Mike Davis, or David Cobb) falls to Dallas later on just in case, so there. Screw objectivity.
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