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Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Five Nuggets of Wisdom to Keep in Mind at Your First Draft

Congratulations to you, new fantasy footballer, on prancing over the metaphorical Rubicon and joining our collective degeneracy! I welcome you with open arms and a somewhat less-than-appropriate erection, assuredly a natural result of my excitement. Entering this world of statistics, names, procedure, and strategy can seem daunting, but push your fears into that dark corner of your brain filled with cobwebs and awkward teenage memories. Here, we seek to help you, new meat, on your way to your first fantasy draft. I've outlined a few important points in my personal credo to keep you from hopping the rails and crashing, in the hopes that your first experience is wholly satisfying.

1: Have a plan ready. Arguably the most obvious point about drafting, it's also the most glaring mistake that can be made. Drafters should enter the war room with a goal in mind and a strategy one how to achieve it. Are you aiming for a more value-based draft? Best player available? Maybe a zero-RB or upside-down approach? General ideas of how to traverse the draft-board-minefield help make the trip more forgiving. Note, though, the use of the phrase "general ideas." Too strict adherence to a plan traps even seasoned GMs in the same pit as blind drafters when something goes awry. Focus and flexibility encompass a proper mindset when the fateful day arrives, which leads us into...

2: Don't get cute early on. Studs are studs for a reason; they marry consistency, ability, production, scheme fit, and a host of smaller game aspects better than most other players at a given position.  And while myriad scoring formats exist, I've not come across one that awards bonus points for boasting that you totally knew Kendall Wright would blow up and that's why you took him over Demariyus Thomas. Granted, the example would likely never happen outside hyperbole, but getting too absorbed in your personal biases can blind you to potential mistakes, value discrepancies, and the like. The draft is your kingdom's foundation, and if you build it on a fault line, nobody will care when it topples into the abyss.

...Has that ever happened in real life? Maybe I've watched The Core too many times.

3: Study, study, study. My first draft was a disaster due to my ignorance and half-finished research into the league; I drafted Beanie Wells fifth overall, not knowing he'd torn a ligament and would be out for the year, because I lacked to foresight to simply Google the damn name a few days beforehand. The rest of the day followed a similar path fraught with injuries, absurd reaches, and horrid roster construction ("Four quarterbacks is the safest way to go!") Familiarize yourself with your league's scoring system, where bonus points are allotted, what positions you have to start every week, all the basics. Participate in live mock drafts with real people, as opposed to rankings-based computers. Utilize the resources at your disposal; don't be ashamed to copy expert lists or pore over preparatory articles (cough) if it makes you more comfortable.

4: Attach yourself to good teams and soft schedules wherever possible. Reality and fantasy overlap more than we tend to realize. I've written before about the deceptive effects of positive and negative game flow on a team's ability to "remain on script;" when a team is winning, coordinators tend to follow their laid-out plan more closely, and this positive game script affords players a fantasy-friendly environment. For instance, Ryan Mathews averages five fantasy points more in wins than losses, due to the Chargers' tendency to veer towards an air attack and marginalize ball-control. To stack up some additional examples on how the phenomenon works, check out Football Guys' empirical RB analysis from 2012 here. Though not as pronounced, positive game script also affects other skill positions (most notably the quarterback,) driving perpendicular to the "shootouts always mean more points" myth. Hence, filling your stable with players from good overall teams helps to reduce random chance and keep your players on the plus side of game flow.

5: Have fun, and don't overthink it. As hokey as the phrase may be, it rings hollow too often. Take a metaphysical perspective for a moment: each week, you roll the dice on whether your Giant Running Back with plus-three tackle breaking ability actually puts it to use, or hits a critical fail and breaks his leg. Fantasy football is merely a group of friends playing Dungeons and Dragons without the little figurines (Footballs and Factoids? Pigskins and Point-whores?) One shouldn't be dour in the midst of playing a game, especially a game he or she clearly loves to play. How many drafts ever precipitate the exact way a GM expects? Not even Ol' Predictor Jones got it unequivocally right,* so keep yourself grounded and don't lose it over a few deviations from your expected result.


*Ol' Predictor Jones guessed I would say this and called to confirm he's never seen a perfect draft either.

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