Fantasy Hype Train, vol. I: Drink the Kool-Aid

Training camp: where sanity and restraint go to die. Player reports flood in, dripping with optimism and hyperbole. We've all heard the beats before; "Player X looks better than anyone I've seen step onto this field EVER," "His catch radius is the size of the Voyager 2 spacecraft," "If Rice and Sanders had a child, he wouldn't be half as fast as this guy," ad nauseum. The hype train is picking up steam once again, boys and girls, and like it or not, we're along for the ride. I'll be running through a few exemplary cases from both ends of the fantasy spectrum: possible hype heroes, and violent, mortifying train crashes. Let's begin on a positive, hopeful note, with those players who I believe can live up to their buzz.

As a side note, please do yourself a favor and Google "Thomas the Dank Engine."

Conductor: Ameer Abdullah, RB, DET

MFL ADP: 55, Fantasy Pros ranking: 86

Ameer Abdullah entered the draft sporting a 6.6 yards per touch average, having just whipped the Big Ten for almost 2000 total yards. Despite a perceived lack of ideal size and some fumbling concerns, Detroit spent their second-rounder on the shifty back and, along with multiple offensive line pickups, made it clear the organization intends to upgrade their trench warfare corps as much as possible. Abdullah landed in one of the most rookie-friendly scenarios, presently stepping into Reggie Bush's vacated role as passing back (ahead of pundit-anointed incumbent Theo Riddick). Camp reports peg Abdullah as the informal MVP, and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi already envisions his shiny new toy as part of a "one-two punch" with hammer Joique Bell. Lombardi's scheme, having gleaned many elements from former boss Sean Payton, affords RBs an impressive share of targets: last year, Bell, Riddick, and Bush combined for over 150 targets, one quarter of the team's total. Calvin Johnson's three-game absence acted as a mitigating factor in these results, but note that none of the RB trio played a full season, either; in fact, Bush saw the field for only 11 weeks and still put up a 40-of-56 line. So, as it currently stands, Abdullah's a solid bet to outproduce Bush's lacluster 2014 and offer up a comfortable return on investment. Digging a bit deeper into conjecture, however, is where the hype shifts into fifth gear. Bell, at the current rate, will open 2015 as the Lions' nominal starting RB. Even as a fan of his, though, I can admit he's a pedestrian runner at best, whose production comes more from effort and maximizing his opportunities than noteworthy talent. There exists a canyon between him and Abdullah in terms of natural ability, and Abdullah has all but declared that he wants to usurp Bell and take on a three-down workload. Of course, hedging bets on talent has felled many a fantasy GM in the past (thanks, Matt Asiata), so one must keep Abdullah's many roadblocks to stardom in mind. At his current MFL10 ADP of 55, Abdullah is a dice-roll, and sits ahead of comparable picks like Shane Vereen, DeSean Jackson, and the aforementioned Bush (assuming San Francisco's monumental defensive losses lead to a bunch of pass-first gameflow, Bush should amass sufficient volume for our needs.) Composite rankings from Fantasy Pros peg him at a much more reasonable 86, but rankings this early in the process bleed volatility, so that number means close to nil right now. I'll likely draft Abdullah wherever I can manage it if he falls into the late fourth or fifth round, but until the fog clears from Detroit's depth chart, anything higher burns capital.

Lumber Car: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB

MFL ADP: 130, Fantasy Pros ranking: 150

ASJ's rookie year had all the usual trappings of a greenhorn tight end: playbook confusion, sloppy routes, low production, and an overall slow start to his playing career. Entering year two, ASJ is staring down what should be a mountainous leap up the rankings. Gone are the floundering temps Lovie Smith employed in journeyman Josh McCown and interim OC Marcus Arroyo; in their places stand first overall pick and lauded QB prospect Jameis Winston, and former Atlanta offensive boss Dirk Koetter. Not to mince words, but Jenkins may have slipped into TE Valhalla. Koetter oversaw one of the most TE-heavy offenses in history during his time with Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez, and considers the position integral to offensive efficacy. Meanwhile, Famous Jameis enters the league pro-ready with impressive pocket mechanics, already an upgrade over erratic McCown. Winston, like his new OC, loves his TEs, having siphoned targets to his former Seminoles teammate Nick O'Leary (who finished with a 50-618-6 line their senior year). Now he gets a massive talent upgrade, trading his hardy maple for a towering, steely oak. ASJ's currently turning heads in spring practices, but such news is expected. When the pads go on later this month, we can put him under the microscope to judge whether he's made the requisite progress in body control, routes, and playbook knowledge. His current rank evokes the tentative optimism surrounding Tampa's offense with Winston at the helm; he displayed lax ball control and sketchy intermediate accuracy in 2014, and expecting much growth out of a rookie would be foolish (especially alongside recent biases fueled by Andrew Luck, Russel Wilson, and 2013 Robert Griffin). A particularly shallow TE pool coming into this year's fantasy season may also artificially inflate ASJ's price, to a point where one overpays for his potential without considering his floor. Naturally, all of this is speculation, but if Jenkins' price hovers around its current spot, I'd have no qualms punching my ticket for the hype train.

Caboose: Nick Toon, WR, NO

MFL ADP: 202, Fantasy Pros ranking: 225

New Orleans football has been in somewhat dire straits lately. The defense under Rob Ryan regressed last year, and recently lost a valued producer in Junior Galette. Drew Brees fell under Father Time's horrid spell, throwing passes with less fervor and zip than we expect from the Pro Bowler. Faced with the issues at hand, Sean Payton took a chisel to his offense, recrafting it into a more balanced-looking ground control squad. While such a change may not lead to record stats, many transactions within Payton's plan stand to benefit wideout Nick Toon. Toon enters his third season with 21 career catches, having spent his first two years buried on the depth chart and sidelined with injuries. As superstitious followers will spout, a WR's third year oozes breakout potential thanks to full scheme development and general comfort. Toon may have far less game-time experience than most third-year players, but his offensive role balances this out. Jimmy Graham, the number-one team target, is sipping frappucinos in Seattle; deep man Kenny Stills now languishes in South Beach with one of the worst deep passers in the league; and former understudy Marques Colston looked positively spent when on the field last year. Toon faces little competition for outside targets opposite Brandin Cooks and, thanks to his not-insignificant height advantage over the twitchy sophomore, may gobble the lion's share of replacement end zone targets. The Saints' defense improved outside of Galette's pectoral tear this offseason, which may lower Toon's ceiling a bit; on the other hand, positive game flow should be on his side. Attached to a still-elite quarterback, enviable game planner, and productive offense, Nick Toon is worth his dart-throw-round price. He provides solid wideout depth with the potential to overtake Colston for targets, possibly rising as high as third in priority targets (likely behind Cooks and new arrival C.J. Spiller or veteran TE Josh Hill).