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| Pictured: The most famous digital hobo |
Doug Martin
ADP: 93rd overall
Martin's rookie year whipped our collective heads into a tizzy; I'm sure we all remember his famed drubbing of Oakland (272 total yards, 4 touchdowns) en route to rookie stardom. However, it all seems like a faded half-tale now, after Martin's recent underwhelming seasons. Tethered by constant injury and a bottom-five offensive line, Martin lumbered towards consequent sub-3.8 YPC finishes. The Lovie Smith regime drafted competition in versatile Charles Sims last year to push Martin's snap count down and marginalize his impact. However, Sims looked even worse than a banged-up Martin (he battled ankle and hamstring problems) with a woeful 2.8 YPC. Now ridden of the ankle woes that hobbled him in 2014, Martin enters a contract year determined to not fade from the league like so many other stars that flame out in short order. Camp reports peg Martin as the current starter, and he's apparently down to 210 pounds (a change that helped springboard fellow youngster Le'Veon Bell from plodder to deity). The Bucs, for their part, may have finally bucked their perennially-terrible offenses, thanks to Jameis Winston and Dirk Koetter. A few weeks ago, I pegged the duo as a major boon for Austin Seferian-Jenkins, but the entire offense should improve thanks to their entry. Koetter's offensive history, while recently more pass-happy, featured top-15 rushing attempt finishes during his 5-year tenure in Jacksonville (outside of 2008, Maurice Jones-Drew's rookie year). With three skyscrapers for pass-catchers and a former 1500-yard rusher, Koetter has the tools to hopefully bring balance to the offense. Winston, for his part, should keep defenses honest through the air, leaving softer fronts for Dougie to face. Available at the 7-8 turn, Muscle Hamster is one of the last starting backs available before we dip into committees, handcuffs, and talent fliers. While I doubt he'll win your league like his 2012 self, value exists at his ADP to get a positive return.
Keenan Allen
ADP: 57th overall
Yes, I know, I whiffed on Allen bouncing back from a disastrous start last year. I waved my e-pecker in the wind in blind expectation of a resurgence that never materialized. After the season, Allen blamed his own ego and lack of focus for the regression, and reportedly shared his revelation of "how difficult it is to stay on top in the pros" with QB Phillip Rivers. Since then, camp reports have pointedly highlighted Allen's renewed work ethic; in addition to running drills with more fervor, he's also dropped weight in order to maximize his admittedly-average speed. Allen, like Martin, left signs of elite playmaking talent on rookie tape. He already runs some of the cleanest routes in the league, sports excellent hands, and looks to be adding speed and discipline to round out his game. San Diego has made positive changes to the offense, most of which should help Allen's fantasy prospects. The once-tinfoil offensive line added Orlando Franklin and Joe Barksdale in an effort to get the unit out of the league basement. Stevie Johnson steps into Eddie Royal's old role, a definite upgrade for the slot. While he should command more defensive attention underneath, Johnson may also bite into some of Allen's shallow targets. While I don't have particularly rosy expectations for rookie Melvin Gordon, if he can stay healthy throughout the season, he's already offering more balance than Ryan Mathews used to. Unfortunately for our purposes, Allen's price has risen to the 5th round in standard drafts, partly thanks to Antonio Gates' suspension, and is hovering right around the intersection of proper value and risk. Surrounded by riskier wideouts like Andre Johnson, Amari Cooper, and Sammy Watkins, Allen is worth taking a shot on as a locked-in #1 target on his team.
Reggie Bush
ADP: 119th overall
Old Reggie had a tough final year in Detroit: coming off a top-20 finish, he played in only 11 games due to being made of plastic, busting on his 35th overall ADP in the process. Like a tumbleweed, Bush has ambled into Levi's Stadium, aimless and cast astray. Luckily, the 49ers seem to know exactly what to do with him. As Carlos Hyde's new running mate, Bush should see the field about as much as he did with the Lions, which should provide a solid production floor as long as he stays upright. Early in the offseason, San Francisco seemed a poor landing spot for Bush, with little opportunity to be had against Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin, and Hyde. Since then, half the defense has retired or shipped off, the offensive line took two major hits, and new coach Jim Tomsula has backed a move towards the air game and maximizing Colin Kaepernick's powerful arm. Frisco's expected win total has plummeted to 6.5, and bookies are still backing the under. While game flow may suffer under the new cupboard-cleaned 49ers, Bush's expected opportunity has exploded. Still an able runner with much more reliable hands and pass-protection than Hyde, Bush should see the field in no-huddle and hurry-up formations, of which many are expected as the team plays catch-up. He also provides a great underneath target if (when) Kaepernick flushes out of the pocket and is forced to improvise. Bush currently lasts into the double-digit rounds, where he can serve as a high-upside flier whose cost won't be mourned if he ends up missing more time.*It's really not dangerous at all, unless you're at a Raiders game.
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Lucio Leone
@thethirdesquire
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