Fantasy Hype Train vol. III: Warm Cinders in the Wreckage

Hype can get the better of even our most seasoned, down-to-earth veterans in this most dangerous of games.* Only so much of fantasy football can be planned for; as I've purported many times, it is a dice game at even its best, and one bad roll can lead to the whole roster failing. Those "bad rolls" are often vilified through a combination of seething hate, over-correction, and recency bias against their performance. Such players enter a period known as post-hype, laying amidst the wreckage of their popped bubble. Like a digital hobo, we can pick through this garbage to find some valuable toys, guaranteed to be cheap as most players shy away from their recent collapse. Here are a few post-hype players that I believe can regain some of their old sheen.

Pictured: The most famous digital hobo

Doug Martin

ADP: 93rd overall

Martin's rookie year whipped our collective heads into a tizzy; I'm sure we all remember his famed drubbing of Oakland (272 total yards, 4 touchdowns) en route to rookie stardom. However, it all seems like a faded half-tale now, after Martin's recent underwhelming seasons. Tethered by constant injury and a bottom-five offensive line, Martin lumbered towards consequent sub-3.8 YPC finishes. The Lovie Smith regime drafted competition in versatile Charles Sims last year to push Martin's snap count down and marginalize his impact. However, Sims looked even worse than a banged-up Martin (he battled ankle and hamstring problems) with a woeful 2.8 YPC. Now ridden of the ankle woes that hobbled him in 2014, Martin enters a contract year determined to not fade from the league like so many other stars that flame out in short order. Camp reports peg Martin as the current starter, and he's apparently down to 210 pounds (a change that helped springboard fellow youngster Le'Veon Bell from plodder to deity). The Bucs, for their part, may have finally bucked their perennially-terrible offenses, thanks to Jameis Winston and Dirk Koetter. A few weeks ago, I pegged the duo as a major boon for Austin Seferian-Jenkins, but the entire offense should improve thanks to their entry. Koetter's offensive history, while recently more pass-happy, featured top-15 rushing attempt finishes during his 5-year tenure in Jacksonville (outside of 2008, Maurice Jones-Drew's rookie year). With three skyscrapers for pass-catchers and a former 1500-yard rusher, Koetter has the tools to hopefully bring balance to the offense. Winston, for his part, should keep defenses honest through the air, leaving softer fronts for Dougie to face. Available at the 7-8 turn, Muscle Hamster is one of the last starting backs available before we dip into committees, handcuffs, and talent fliers. While I doubt he'll win your league like his 2012 self, value exists at his ADP to get a positive return.

Keenan Allen

ADP: 57th overall

Yes, I know, I whiffed on Allen bouncing back from a disastrous start last year. I waved my e-pecker in the wind in blind expectation of a resurgence that never materialized. After the season, Allen blamed his own ego and lack of focus for the regression, and reportedly shared his revelation of "how difficult it is to stay on top in the pros" with QB Phillip Rivers. Since then, camp reports have pointedly highlighted Allen's renewed work ethic; in addition to running drills with more fervor, he's also dropped weight in order to maximize his admittedly-average speed. Allen, like Martin, left signs of elite playmaking talent on rookie tape. He already runs some of the cleanest routes in the league, sports excellent hands, and looks to be adding speed and discipline to round out his game. San Diego has made positive changes to the offense, most of which should help Allen's fantasy prospects. The once-tinfoil offensive line added Orlando Franklin and Joe Barksdale in an effort to get the unit out of the league basement. Stevie Johnson steps into Eddie Royal's old role, a definite upgrade for the slot. While he should command more defensive attention underneath, Johnson may also bite into some of Allen's shallow targets. While I don't have particularly rosy expectations for rookie Melvin Gordon, if he can stay healthy throughout the season, he's already offering more balance than Ryan Mathews used to. Unfortunately for our purposes, Allen's price has risen to the 5th round in standard drafts, partly thanks to Antonio Gates' suspension, and is hovering right around the intersection of proper value and risk. Surrounded by riskier wideouts like Andre Johnson, Amari Cooper, and Sammy Watkins, Allen is worth taking a shot on as a locked-in #1 target on his team.

Reggie Bush

ADP: 119th overall

Old Reggie had a tough final year in Detroit: coming off a top-20 finish, he played in only 11 games due to being made of plastic, busting on his 35th overall ADP in the process. Like a tumbleweed, Bush has ambled into Levi's Stadium, aimless and cast astray. Luckily, the 49ers seem to know exactly what to do with him. As Carlos Hyde's new running mate, Bush should see the field about as much as he did with the Lions, which should provide a solid production floor as long as he stays upright. Early in the offseason, San Francisco seemed a poor landing spot for Bush, with little opportunity to be had against Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin, and Hyde. Since then, half the defense has retired or shipped off, the offensive line took two major hits, and new coach Jim Tomsula has backed a move towards the air game and maximizing Colin Kaepernick's powerful arm. Frisco's expected win total has plummeted to 6.5, and bookies are still backing the under. While game flow may suffer under the new cupboard-cleaned 49ers, Bush's expected opportunity has exploded. Still an able runner with much more reliable hands and pass-protection than Hyde, Bush should see the field in no-huddle and hurry-up formations, of which many are expected as the team plays catch-up. He also provides a great underneath target if (when) Kaepernick flushes out of the pocket and is forced to improvise. Bush currently lasts into the double-digit rounds, where he can serve as a high-upside flier whose cost won't be mourned if he ends up missing more time.



*It's really not dangerous at all, unless you're at a Raiders game.
--
Lucio Leone
@thethirdesquire

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Fantasy Hype Train vol. II: Hopping the Rails

Self-attribution bias theorizes that, if a single person experiences success, it was by their own doing, while setbacks or failures come about due to others or circumstances or anything BUT that given person's actions. It leads to people erroneously trusting in their own decisions and ideas without critical examination. SAB factors into player hype inflation just as much as any other aspect of one's life. Dropping a penny on a train rail in the hopes of appearing on the five-o-clock news surveying fresh wreckage is not only a possible sign of major psychoses, but also of naivete; even if one didn't know such a story had been debunked over a century ago as pure myth, the idea that a sliver of pliable ore could flick tons of metal into the air like a dandelion head should ring a skepticism bell somewhere. Excessive speed, be it via neglect or hubris or whatever, CAN induce a rail-hop. What I'm trying to get at through this contrived and woefully-thin allegory is that one's plans can launch off the rails through excessive hype for a given player, disregarding pitfalls due to situational blindness. This exercise looks at a pair of well-liked fantasy prospects through an objective and critical lens, so our excitement doesn't leave us like the opening scene in Unbreakable.

A wildly underrated movie, by M. Night Shyamalamadingdong, no less

C.J. Spiller

MFL ADP: 52, Fantasy Pros ranking: 62 (RB26)

Spiller's road has been a long one thus far. A former first-round pick of the Bills, he cobbled together only one productive season, but damn, was it a great one. Spiller's 2012 seems ethereal now, but its memory still tugs at our senses come draft time. His ceiling is sky-high, we rationalize, which isn't wrong at all. But potential alone cannot justify a player's price...so we look to his new surroundings. Spiller left Buffalo in the lurch this offseason and now fills Pierre Thomas/Travaris Cadet's old role in New Orleans. Combined, the duo saw 106 of the team's 154 RB targets last year, a number that could grow in the post-Jimmy Graham era. Pundits expect Spiller to be third on the team in overall targets, behind sophomore Brandin Cooks and senior citizen Marques Colston. Momentum is already building behind his market value as people sum his talent with the new offense. It's a volatile situation that promises to exacerbate gradually; one must keep the Spiller love in check and correct for his possible failings. As I've previously mentioned, Sean Payton has gradually retooled his offense into a more balanced attack than it once was, hoping to feature Mark Ingram as the primary weapon outside Drew Brees; this will likely lead to an effort to keep two tight ends on the field more often, which would mean Spiller will either split out wide or just come off the field. While Spiller's lack of other production in Buffalo resulted partly from the coaching staff having its collective head up its ass regarding Spiller's ability in space ("WHY ARE YOU RUNNING HIM BETWEEN THE TACKLES OVER AND OVER?"), it still carries weight. We've seen glimpses on the field since 2012, but nothing substantial enough to convince me that it wasn't an outlier season. Another bit to recall is Spiller's penchant for getting hurt. He's missed 8 games over the past two years and still fights off a lingering ankle issue. At his current ADP, Spiller is right at the intersection of worth and value: you're getting exactly what you pay for. I expect his price to bubble over into the third round as the offseason buzz grows louder and beat writers pump him up even more than they already have, which makes him too much of a possible liability outside of PPR leagues for my tastes.

Melvin Gordon

MFL ADP: 30, Fantasy Pros ranking: 29 (RB13)

Ho-lee shit. Rookie Derangement Syndrome once more attacks our young and burns our villages to tinder. Gordon came off the board the second RB and takes his talents to San Diego, which even Ray Charles saw coming. He takes over from new Eagle Ryan Mathews as the two-down runner for the Chargers, alongside passing down back and resident "lunchpail guy" Danny Woodhead. Don't take his presence here as a knock on the guy; I think Gordon runs well and can find success in the Chargers' system. But, and you may notice the theme here, one must take a measured approach to his fantasy potential. First off, Gordon is a former Badger. The RB-friendly system and monstrous offensive line at Wisconsin has buoyed otherwise-average backs for over a decade, with their last successful NFL transplant being Ron Dayne in 2000 (Montee Ball hasn't looked too great thus far, but he's still young, so he gets a mulligan for now). While dazzling when he escapes the defense and hits the second level, Gordon sometimes gave up on dirty runs: NFL.com noted him being stuffed on 20% of his runs. Going from one of the top lines in college ball to the 26th-ranked run-blocking unit in the NFL (last year) casts an ominous pallor over the future this stat portends. On the other hand, his shifty footwork and fluid hips help him to escape tackles, as evidenced by his 1200 yards after contact last year. Plus, San Diego's line improved somewhat after the season, having added Orlando Franklin and TJ Clemmings into the mix. Gordon adds nil to the pass game due to shaky protection and lobster claws, so his opportunities are already limited early on. He'll have to simultaneously run near optimal efficiency (difficult) and rip off some home runs (slightly less difficult) to return on his owner's almost bombastic investment. San Diego draws a somewhat tough RB schedule this year, but gets to play Oakland championship week. I expect Gordon to start slow but close the year as a solid RB2; he should be avoided at his draft-day price, but may prove a juicy trade chip as the year progresses.

--Lucio Leone
@thethirdesquire

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Fantasy Hype Train, vol. I: Drink the Kool-Aid

Training camp: where sanity and restraint go to die. Player reports flood in, dripping with optimism and hyperbole. We've all heard the beats before; "Player X looks better than anyone I've seen step onto this field EVER," "His catch radius is the size of the Voyager 2 spacecraft," "If Rice and Sanders had a child, he wouldn't be half as fast as this guy," ad nauseum. The hype train is picking up steam once again, boys and girls, and like it or not, we're along for the ride. I'll be running through a few exemplary cases from both ends of the fantasy spectrum: possible hype heroes, and violent, mortifying train crashes. Let's begin on a positive, hopeful note, with those players who I believe can live up to their buzz.

As a side note, please do yourself a favor and Google "Thomas the Dank Engine."

Conductor: Ameer Abdullah, RB, DET

MFL ADP: 55, Fantasy Pros ranking: 86

Ameer Abdullah entered the draft sporting a 6.6 yards per touch average, having just whipped the Big Ten for almost 2000 total yards. Despite a perceived lack of ideal size and some fumbling concerns, Detroit spent their second-rounder on the shifty back and, along with multiple offensive line pickups, made it clear the organization intends to upgrade their trench warfare corps as much as possible. Abdullah landed in one of the most rookie-friendly scenarios, presently stepping into Reggie Bush's vacated role as passing back (ahead of pundit-anointed incumbent Theo Riddick). Camp reports peg Abdullah as the informal MVP, and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi already envisions his shiny new toy as part of a "one-two punch" with hammer Joique Bell. Lombardi's scheme, having gleaned many elements from former boss Sean Payton, affords RBs an impressive share of targets: last year, Bell, Riddick, and Bush combined for over 150 targets, one quarter of the team's total. Calvin Johnson's three-game absence acted as a mitigating factor in these results, but note that none of the RB trio played a full season, either; in fact, Bush saw the field for only 11 weeks and still put up a 40-of-56 line. So, as it currently stands, Abdullah's a solid bet to outproduce Bush's lacluster 2014 and offer up a comfortable return on investment. Digging a bit deeper into conjecture, however, is where the hype shifts into fifth gear. Bell, at the current rate, will open 2015 as the Lions' nominal starting RB. Even as a fan of his, though, I can admit he's a pedestrian runner at best, whose production comes more from effort and maximizing his opportunities than noteworthy talent. There exists a canyon between him and Abdullah in terms of natural ability, and Abdullah has all but declared that he wants to usurp Bell and take on a three-down workload. Of course, hedging bets on talent has felled many a fantasy GM in the past (thanks, Matt Asiata), so one must keep Abdullah's many roadblocks to stardom in mind. At his current MFL10 ADP of 55, Abdullah is a dice-roll, and sits ahead of comparable picks like Shane Vereen, DeSean Jackson, and the aforementioned Bush (assuming San Francisco's monumental defensive losses lead to a bunch of pass-first gameflow, Bush should amass sufficient volume for our needs.) Composite rankings from Fantasy Pros peg him at a much more reasonable 86, but rankings this early in the process bleed volatility, so that number means close to nil right now. I'll likely draft Abdullah wherever I can manage it if he falls into the late fourth or fifth round, but until the fog clears from Detroit's depth chart, anything higher burns capital.

Lumber Car: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB

MFL ADP: 130, Fantasy Pros ranking: 150

ASJ's rookie year had all the usual trappings of a greenhorn tight end: playbook confusion, sloppy routes, low production, and an overall slow start to his playing career. Entering year two, ASJ is staring down what should be a mountainous leap up the rankings. Gone are the floundering temps Lovie Smith employed in journeyman Josh McCown and interim OC Marcus Arroyo; in their places stand first overall pick and lauded QB prospect Jameis Winston, and former Atlanta offensive boss Dirk Koetter. Not to mince words, but Jenkins may have slipped into TE Valhalla. Koetter oversaw one of the most TE-heavy offenses in history during his time with Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez, and considers the position integral to offensive efficacy. Meanwhile, Famous Jameis enters the league pro-ready with impressive pocket mechanics, already an upgrade over erratic McCown. Winston, like his new OC, loves his TEs, having siphoned targets to his former Seminoles teammate Nick O'Leary (who finished with a 50-618-6 line their senior year). Now he gets a massive talent upgrade, trading his hardy maple for a towering, steely oak. ASJ's currently turning heads in spring practices, but such news is expected. When the pads go on later this month, we can put him under the microscope to judge whether he's made the requisite progress in body control, routes, and playbook knowledge. His current rank evokes the tentative optimism surrounding Tampa's offense with Winston at the helm; he displayed lax ball control and sketchy intermediate accuracy in 2014, and expecting much growth out of a rookie would be foolish (especially alongside recent biases fueled by Andrew Luck, Russel Wilson, and 2013 Robert Griffin). A particularly shallow TE pool coming into this year's fantasy season may also artificially inflate ASJ's price, to a point where one overpays for his potential without considering his floor. Naturally, all of this is speculation, but if Jenkins' price hovers around its current spot, I'd have no qualms punching my ticket for the hype train.

Caboose: Nick Toon, WR, NO

MFL ADP: 202, Fantasy Pros ranking: 225

New Orleans football has been in somewhat dire straits lately. The defense under Rob Ryan regressed last year, and recently lost a valued producer in Junior Galette. Drew Brees fell under Father Time's horrid spell, throwing passes with less fervor and zip than we expect from the Pro Bowler. Faced with the issues at hand, Sean Payton took a chisel to his offense, recrafting it into a more balanced-looking ground control squad. While such a change may not lead to record stats, many transactions within Payton's plan stand to benefit wideout Nick Toon. Toon enters his third season with 21 career catches, having spent his first two years buried on the depth chart and sidelined with injuries. As superstitious followers will spout, a WR's third year oozes breakout potential thanks to full scheme development and general comfort. Toon may have far less game-time experience than most third-year players, but his offensive role balances this out. Jimmy Graham, the number-one team target, is sipping frappucinos in Seattle; deep man Kenny Stills now languishes in South Beach with one of the worst deep passers in the league; and former understudy Marques Colston looked positively spent when on the field last year. Toon faces little competition for outside targets opposite Brandin Cooks and, thanks to his not-insignificant height advantage over the twitchy sophomore, may gobble the lion's share of replacement end zone targets. The Saints' defense improved outside of Galette's pectoral tear this offseason, which may lower Toon's ceiling a bit; on the other hand, positive game flow should be on his side. Attached to a still-elite quarterback, enviable game planner, and productive offense, Nick Toon is worth his dart-throw-round price. He provides solid wideout depth with the potential to overtake Colston for targets, possibly rising as high as third in priority targets (likely behind Cooks and new arrival C.J. Spiller or veteran TE Josh Hill).

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Five Nuggets of Wisdom to Keep in Mind at Your First Draft

Congratulations to you, new fantasy footballer, on prancing over the metaphorical Rubicon and joining our collective degeneracy! I welcome you with open arms and a somewhat less-than-appropriate erection, assuredly a natural result of my excitement. Entering this world of statistics, names, procedure, and strategy can seem daunting, but push your fears into that dark corner of your brain filled with cobwebs and awkward teenage memories. Here, we seek to help you, new meat, on your way to your first fantasy draft. I've outlined a few important points in my personal credo to keep you from hopping the rails and crashing, in the hopes that your first experience is wholly satisfying.

1: Have a plan ready. Arguably the most obvious point about drafting, it's also the most glaring mistake that can be made. Drafters should enter the war room with a goal in mind and a strategy one how to achieve it. Are you aiming for a more value-based draft? Best player available? Maybe a zero-RB or upside-down approach? General ideas of how to traverse the draft-board-minefield help make the trip more forgiving. Note, though, the use of the phrase "general ideas." Too strict adherence to a plan traps even seasoned GMs in the same pit as blind drafters when something goes awry. Focus and flexibility encompass a proper mindset when the fateful day arrives, which leads us into...

2: Don't get cute early on. Studs are studs for a reason; they marry consistency, ability, production, scheme fit, and a host of smaller game aspects better than most other players at a given position.  And while myriad scoring formats exist, I've not come across one that awards bonus points for boasting that you totally knew Kendall Wright would blow up and that's why you took him over Demariyus Thomas. Granted, the example would likely never happen outside hyperbole, but getting too absorbed in your personal biases can blind you to potential mistakes, value discrepancies, and the like. The draft is your kingdom's foundation, and if you build it on a fault line, nobody will care when it topples into the abyss.

...Has that ever happened in real life? Maybe I've watched The Core too many times.

3: Study, study, study. My first draft was a disaster due to my ignorance and half-finished research into the league; I drafted Beanie Wells fifth overall, not knowing he'd torn a ligament and would be out for the year, because I lacked to foresight to simply Google the damn name a few days beforehand. The rest of the day followed a similar path fraught with injuries, absurd reaches, and horrid roster construction ("Four quarterbacks is the safest way to go!") Familiarize yourself with your league's scoring system, where bonus points are allotted, what positions you have to start every week, all the basics. Participate in live mock drafts with real people, as opposed to rankings-based computers. Utilize the resources at your disposal; don't be ashamed to copy expert lists or pore over preparatory articles (cough) if it makes you more comfortable.

4: Attach yourself to good teams and soft schedules wherever possible. Reality and fantasy overlap more than we tend to realize. I've written before about the deceptive effects of positive and negative game flow on a team's ability to "remain on script;" when a team is winning, coordinators tend to follow their laid-out plan more closely, and this positive game script affords players a fantasy-friendly environment. For instance, Ryan Mathews averages five fantasy points more in wins than losses, due to the Chargers' tendency to veer towards an air attack and marginalize ball-control. To stack up some additional examples on how the phenomenon works, check out Football Guys' empirical RB analysis from 2012 here. Though not as pronounced, positive game script also affects other skill positions (most notably the quarterback,) driving perpendicular to the "shootouts always mean more points" myth. Hence, filling your stable with players from good overall teams helps to reduce random chance and keep your players on the plus side of game flow.

5: Have fun, and don't overthink it. As hokey as the phrase may be, it rings hollow too often. Take a metaphysical perspective for a moment: each week, you roll the dice on whether your Giant Running Back with plus-three tackle breaking ability actually puts it to use, or hits a critical fail and breaks his leg. Fantasy football is merely a group of friends playing Dungeons and Dragons without the little figurines (Footballs and Factoids? Pigskins and Point-whores?) One shouldn't be dour in the midst of playing a game, especially a game he or she clearly loves to play. How many drafts ever precipitate the exact way a GM expects? Not even Ol' Predictor Jones got it unequivocally right,* so keep yourself grounded and don't lose it over a few deviations from your expected result.


*Ol' Predictor Jones guessed I would say this and called to confirm he's never seen a perfect draft either.

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Catch-All: Value in the Second Tier of Wide Receivers in the 2015 NFL Draft

ALERT! Combine fever threatens to infect us all! Vigilance is your first and best defense, so keep a keen watch for the signs. Symptoms include a fever spike, leading to scorching hot takes; vertigo and neck spasms, from watching players leap skyward over and over; carpal tunnel syndrome after calculating dozens of speed and agility scores; and mild dysphoria, as your favorite prospects test worse than Morris Claiborne on the Wonderlic. To combat the pitfalls of Combine fever, stay informed and unbiased by absorbing as much information as possible from as many different sources, be they named or the mythical "anonymous scout." Above all, remain calm, lest you too succumb to the fever that claimed so many others.

Whoa, that's odd... my neck just twitched...

Combine Fever: Patient Zero

 (Common features amongst these wideouts: short-area quickness and juking ability, sharp body control, fluidity in routes, proper catch technique and hand use, downfield tracking, and field awareness. Like vision and burst in runners, I value these qualities above pure athleticism for rookies as it seems to correlate with faster production and penchant towards self-betterment in the pros. As a result, I struggled with the decision to omit quick riser Nelson Agholor, but I encourage taking a look at him and the rest of the later-round receivers as well. Please leave feedback after the jump, or tweet us on the sidebar, and enjoy!)

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 Jaelen Strong

6'4", 217 pounds

Best comparison: Mike Evans and Jarius Wright's lovechild
Tape versus USC, courtesy of Draftbreakdown:

Including Strong in this article may faintly bend the rules, as he's expected to last until the middle of round two at the latest. However, he's still considered an outlier from the consensus top-tier, and my crush on him forced the issue. The appropriately-named Strong tested well in Indianapolis, with his long-noteworthy explosiveness at the forefront (42-inch vertical and 123-inch broad jump). Strong's Jordan-like leaps pepper his tape, as he battles for contested catch after contested catch and boxes out defenders with his powerful frame. Yet, he isn't merely a Jermaine Kearse-style jump baller; Strong tracks like Bear Grylls in the mountains and always seems to know where the ball will end up. Getting downfield to catch deep shots is rarely an issue, though he needs a few strides to hit his second gear. Thankfully, he can shake off shallow defenders with his quick feet and awareness. Though he fails to consistently win in the small game due to choppy routes (he's stiff out of the break, likely due to his size), with practice Strong can develop that part of his game and embody the prototypical number-one wideout in the NFL.

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Tyler Lockett

5'10", 180 pounds

Best comparison: T.Y. Hilton
Tape versus Baylor, courtesy of Draftbreakdown:
 

If you're plugged into the draftnik streams this offseason, you'll likely sputter under waves of gushing over draftees Philip Dorsett and Devin Smith. Dorsett should find yards easy to come by if he gets some designed plays, but Smith carries a lot of Tavon Austin-like risk. The premier small receiver of this year's class, to me, is Lockett. His tape is some of the most enjoyable to watch of any player in the draft, showcasing marvelous instincts and ball sense to go with putty hands. He ran a 4.4 flat in Indy and nabbed a 10.96 agility score, falling right in line with his athletic strengths as an electric lid-popper. Purportedly, Lockett has been obliterating interviews with a combination of impressive football intelligence and sterling character. School coaches and teammates have on multiple occasions dubbed him a film junkie, which instills major confidence in his long-term outlook. Due to his lacking size, Lockett knows he has to win with his brain and legs, or he risks getting bullied all day by lanky cornerbacks. Many scouts will scoff at Lockett as a one-dimensional returner (albeit an impactful one), but I see more of a diverse, T.Y. Hilton-esque threat. Entering the draft as one of the most refined players overall, Lockett's arrow is pointing straight up.

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Tre McBride

6'0", 210 pounds

Best comparison: Brandon LaFell
Tape versus Richmond, courtesy of Draftbreakdown:

McBride's future in the pros muddies far more than the other three prospects on this list. As a small-school player, he flew under the radar until the Combine; after registering solid numbers all around, including a fiery 123-inch broad jump, pundits went back to pore over his reels a bit. He compares to Brandon LaFell in terms of body movement and field control, which douses my expectations for him a bit. LaFell, to this point in his career, has suffered from lapses in concentration and a tendency to play slower than his athleticism permits; both red flags hang from McBride as well. As of the Combine, he profiles as a single-layer intermediate patroller, taking on low safeties and using his natural hands to pluck off bullet passes. If a squad puts in the time to strengthen McBride's mental presence, he certainly has the potential to add layers to his game and evolve into something of a yards-after-catch maven. Despite his lower ceiling, McBride can add a much-needed versatile complement to any team's lead receiver as he matures.

--Lucio Leone

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Hindsight is 20-20(14): The Dallas Cowboys' Season in Review

Nobody expected much out of the Dallas Cowboys in 2014. Mind you, that's not a set up for paragraph upon paragraph of I-told-you-sos; my prediction for Dallas coming into the year, as seasoned listeners of Third and Long may recall, was a less-than-rosy six wins. Rather, it's an indication of the way hindsight can color a narrative. With low expectations, Dallas had little to lose, but exploded to a 12-4 record and shattered perceptions in the process. Now, we look back upon what transpired over those 19 weeks, focusing on every detail under a microscope, trying to answer the eternal question: how? How did this happen, what should we look for in the future, and is Jerry Jones merely a vessel sloshing with formaldehyde and moonshine? As a blubbering, degenerate fan, I took on the task of answering these questions. Let's step right into the muck, shall we?

Tyron Smith: comedian

Dallas' offense ranked third overall on numberFire's Net Expected Points metric, with a total expected score of 182 by the end of the season. Almost everything was going right for the team that had hit so many speed bumps in the past. Tony Romo, a major question mark coming off back surgery, threw 34 touchdowns to only nine interceptions, and a career high 69.9 completion percentage. To put his season in perspective, league MVP Aaron Rodgers trailed Romo in passer rating and completion percentage. Romo also led the league with five game-winning drives according to Pro Football Reference, a massive feather in the cap of a quarterback unfairly derided as a choker his entire career (for more on that topic, I advise reading numberFire contributor J.J. Zachariason's thorough investigation into why that narrative flops like a dying pike.) DeMarco Murray carried similar doubts entering his final rookie-deal season, after losing game time to injury every year since he enrolled in Oklahoma. To wit, his career-first full season was also a career-best: 2,261 total yards, thirteen touchdowns, and a near-consensus Offensive Player of the Year victory. Nobody dared to malign new coordinator Scott Linehan's crew; the praise heaped upon the dominant offensive line and league-leading rushing attack couldn't be dodged by anything less than a total media blackout. Along with grown-up cyborg Dez Bryant and rising players elsewhere on the offense (Cole Beasley and the aforementioned offensive linemen especially), the Cowboys struck fear into the hearts of defensive game-planners, and by the end had found their way back to a winning record. Staff consistency and a gradual improvement in personnel scouting (particular credit to Will McClay) over the past couple of years played a not-unimportant part in building the offense into the beast we saw every Sunday. While Jason Garrett serves as a glorified figurehead for the team, his consistent leadership has been pointed out as essential to the team remaining focused. Even unsung decision-makers and teachers like linebackers coach Matt Eberflus and Jerry Jones' son Stephen deserve credit, having fostered an environment dedicated to quality and unity.

For every bright day, there must be an equally grim twilight, and the Dallas defense fit the part disappointingly well. As the season crept closer, every talking head deigned to qualify the defensive squad as anything above "the worst in history," and with good reason. The Cowboys had just released future Hall of Fame defensive end and possible Santa Claus doppelganger DeMarcus Ware due to their money troubles; outside of the always-hurt Sean Lee and inconsistent Orlando Scandrick, he was their only positive presence on defense in 2013. To patch the ship, Dallas signed a few one-year-deal free agents (Henry Melton, Jeremy Mincey, Terrell McClain) and brought in defensive-line guru Rod Marinelli to glop the amorphous mess into something coherent. Dusk turned to full-blown nighttime when Sean Lee tore his ACL in training camp, sidelining him for the entire year. Dallas was forced to take a wild shot on infamous draft bust Rolando McClain to try and fill this new, monstrous hole. In hindsight, everyone agrees this defense should have lived up to expectations as the worst in history, but a few strokes of luck hit the team. Melton and Mincey performed well above their pay grades in rotational roles. Rolando turned into a force at middle linebacker, fortifying the leaky run defense and eventually leading the defensive locker room. Young tackle Tyrone Crawford took a big step forward in his development and now looks like a potential long-term starter at three-technique. And behind the scenes, Marinelli schemed some creative and highly-efficient plans. Where did all of this overachievement lead the D in Big D? A bottom-ten finish with 84 net expected points against. A historically-sharp offense and some miraculous personnel turns only lifted the defense enough to barely tread water. The secondary play, not counting solid play from Scandrick, was a special kind of terrible. Without a starting-caliber free safety, the team was trotting out J.J. Wilcox at center field, which ended in spectacular failure. Barry Church, one of the nominally-best tacklers on the team, had weekly bouts of forgetting to wrap up on plays. Brandon Carr waited until week 15 to start justifying his exorbitant contract, and even then never rose above "mediocre." In an instance brimming with irony, Morris Claiborne was threatened by journeyman Sterling Moore for perimeter and nickel corner duty, but lost his season to injury in week five before he got a chance to re-cement the job. While I ascribe to the adage that a good defense is built front-to-back, not even the Fearsome Foursome can mitigate an invisible secondary.

D. Lawrence and D. Harris

Looking forward, I feel a sense of cautious optimism for this team. Undoubtedly, the offense will regress towards the mean after an all-around bombastic season. Murray is especially at-risk of tanking if he remains in Dallas, after weathering the strain his massive workload caused. Contract negotiations with skill players always risk turning ugly, and while Dez has grown into a mature leader for the team, the situation could go sour if he isn't paid handsomely. On the other hand, the defense should experience a similar regression, this time positively. Many of the defense's positive contributors, like Mincey, Selvie, and Melton, may not return (the team already declined Melton's option, sending him off to the free agent pool). However, young players like Demarcus Lawrence, Anthony Hitchens, Ken Bishop, and Crawford soften the blow and offer a bit of hope for the future. Lee will ideally recovery from his injury, and with Rolando, can turn the linebacking corps into a strength. The coming draft has been referred to as "the year of the pass rush," ripe with gifted defenders that can add to the current youth core; expect Marinelli to get plenty of new toys after the offseason closes. Financially, the team has finally escaped salary cap paralysis. Pending an expected pay cut from Carr, who currently siphons over 12 million dollars from the team's salary, enough room should exist to allow the team to swing a couple of deals (Rahim Moore, if affordable, is my pipe dream FA signing). In a more macrouniversal sense, the competition within the NFC East promises to be much fiercer than last year, as New York and Philadelphia get further settled in their new schemes and personnel. Expecting to trounce the rest of the division is foolish.

In sum, 2014 in Dallas was a year rife with success, luck, and diligence. Many opportune swings of fate took place that helped the Cowboys' rise through the ranks. Week four in Seattle often represents the galvanizing moment, where the team had turned a corner; the defense often swarmed Russel Wilson and forced him into mistakes, while Murray trampled the Seahawks' mythical run-stuffers. I often posit the reality of their win hinging partly on Seattle's absurd refusal to run the ball in the second half of the game after the defense was gashed by it earlier; one can only chalk this up to blind luck. However, after years of seeing bad luck haunt the team between horrid last-minute decisions and mind-boggling plays, it was nice to feel like they had briefly escaped being one of the football gods' playthings. Here's to the offseason, and to looking towards the future.

Oh, and the answer to the third question: science cannot confirm or deny whether Jerry has a working ventricular system. Take that as you will.

Now git me my lassoin' rope, I'm a-huntin' yuppies today

--Lucio Leone

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Antique Hunt: Lower-Tier Running Back Prospects in the 2015 NFL Draft

Clinton Portis. Edgerrin James. LaDanian Tomlinson. One often thinks of these men as relics of an epoch long passed, the last of the true feature backs. Yet, we saw them play not more than ten years ago, putting clown suits on safeties and linebackers hoping to make a play, so how is it that we now see them in grainy black-and-white? In such a small time frame, the evolution of the NFL to a high-flying pass-first league became more pronounced than ever; receivers grew larger and ran faster, the "basketball tight end" found its way into color commentary lexicon, and multiple quarterbacks either threatened or outright shattered yardage records as 5,000 became the new 4,000. Though the old ground-and-pound mentality still drew breath in remote corners of the country, everyone sang the virtues of attacking defenses through the air to win.

LDT swats at a fly

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The "It's Only Been One Week Without Football But I Can't Wait Any Longer" 2015 Fantasy Football Rankings

Monday, February 9th, 2015. It's officially been over 168 hours since the Super Bowl between the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks has ended. I could spend this entire New York snow day (for about the fifth time in the past two weeks) writing about "THE PLAY" and let this site add in to the hodgepodge of content talking about how horrible Darrell Bevell and Pete Carroll are...but I'm not going to. It's only been a week and I'm completely sick of all the criticism of it. Let's not kid ourselves, the Seahawks are really, really talented and if I had to pick two teams to make it to the Super Bowl next year, the Seahawks would be one of my picks. So instead, as most of you could tell from the title, it's time for...

THE "IT'S ONLY BEEN ONE WEEK WITHOUT FOOTBALL BUT I CAN'T WAIT ANY LONGER" 2015 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS!!!!

Note to my league: We need this trophy

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2015 NFL Mock Draft version 0.5

Oh boy, a mock draft, how original and specific! Be still my beating heart. This is a very rough, prototypical mock of the 2015 NFL Draft's first round. I tried to stay true to how most teams tend to draft, gave credence to both need and best-player-available (BPA) mindsets, and even threw in a little shakeup. Enjoy.

If you need me, I'll be over here for the next few months

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A Post-Super Bowl Look at Free Agency and Fantasy

Rumors of our death have been mildly exaggerated. To our readers and listeners, we apologize for such a long downtime; the cacophonous outside world tends to swallow our free time like a wormhole. Rest assured, we intend to make a concerted effort towards providing stellar content for y'all regularly once again, however long it may take to reenact. In the meantime, we sashay into yet another NFL offseason, rife with men that we fancifully stack on top of rosters like Lego blocks. Every team, even the champions, earn their yearly clean slate, and hypothetical potential is at its peak. Naturally, this leads to some whimsical speculation on my part; I figured I may as well spill a handful of my usual diatribes onto the page, which grew into the longform mass of pixels below. I do hope you enjoy a few of my cursory thoughts on the top free agents for this coming offseason, and the possible fantasy implications therein.

RISE FROM YOUR GRAVE!

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Third and Long: Dolphin Vulgarity and the Week 10 Recap

After a whirlwind tenth week, we have a ton of stuff to talk about folks, so let's dive right into the next episode of Third and Long. Listen here or on iTunes!

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Third and Long: The Midseason Fantasy Rundown

We've hit the midpoint, boys and girls, so we figured it's only appropriate to commemorate it with a special edition episode! Third and Long's hosts delve into the current fantasy football scoring leaders and give our input on trends, studs/duds, and potential big finishes. Listen here or on iTunes!

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Third and Long: The JETS, the MIKE, and the Week 7 Recap

We're joined by guest host and New York Jets columnist Jordan Pensabene (@jpens4real21) in our recap of a particularly hectic week of football, attacking the Percy Harvin trade, team trends, and the playoff picture very vaguely taking shape. Listen here or on iTunes!

#struggleface

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Week 7 Fantasy Report: Ghosts of Football Yet to Come

Relatively speaking, this week sputtered by with little to-do. A few games went down to the wire and some interesting upsets caused mild tremors, but nothing registered much more than a burp on the figurative Richter scale. What we did see, over all else, was the growing emergence of young players in their respective positions. As is customary during midseason, rookies began hitting their strides, teams loosened the ropes on their young projects, and we as fans began to notice a sense of evolution around the league. Hence, this week I'd like to focus primarily on some of the more impressive youngsters, of course touching upon their fantasy forecasts in both re-draft and a few dynasty tidbits. Hope you all enjoy this seventh installment of my fake football stock report.

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Third and Long: Rivalries and the Week 5/6 Recap

We're back after a one-week hiatus (our bye week!) to take on some big rumblings around the league. Listen here or on iTunes! As a postscript, since I (Lucio) talk so much about the Browns' zone-blocking scheme, here's a fantastic article from SB Nation that breaks it all down: http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2014/10/17/6993241/cleveland-browns-bryan-hoyer-offense

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Week 6 Fantasy Report: The Bug is Back

In hindsight, we as fantasy GMs have been spoiled for the past handful of weeks. Very few roster-crumbling injuries cropped up since the bloodshed of week two, and we may have become complacent in their absence. Unfortunately, it seems the injury bug has returned to feast anew. Cringe-worthy blows to many players over the weekend served as a sobering reminder to the sports world that the men who walk out of that tunnel every week do so in light of the astronomical risks and stress their bodies must endure. Their livelihood hangs from delicate, unseeable threads over the stadiums in which these gladiatorial contests play out. In light of this crash back to earth, I've decided to cover a few of the most impactful injuries that have stricken teams thus far and their potential implications. Expect a return to the normal format next week (as an aside, deep-leaguers should pick up CJ Anderson and Joseph Randle, just saying).

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Week 5 Fantasy Report: Brady Got Back

Another week glows in the rearview mirror, and we've all hopefully taken another step forward in our bids for fantasy godhood (sadly, I did not. Thanks, Cincinnati D/ST). You all know the drill by now, so let's jump right into the fray.

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Third and Long: Oakland's Woes and the Week 4 Recap

Our quarter-pole recap has finally come! We touch on Oakland's problems so far, the fall of the great Tom Brady, and how the NFC East can turn it around for good. Listen here or on iTunes!

Spider, too; why banana?

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The Bye Week Blues, Volume II

Phew, we made it through the first wave, boys and girls. Thankfully for us fantasy GMs, week four looks to have been one of the worst byes this season, potentially only topped by week nine (Atlanta, Tennessee, Buffalo, and most of the NFC North will be off that week ... it gives me chills). Hence, while we aren't out of the woods just yet, the underbrush has cleared for the time being. Last week, we clobbered some home runs, but piddled in a few sad little sac-bunts too. Eli, Teddy, and Tannehill all ruined the curve for other quarterbacks; Gerhart, Asiata, and Walker found the end zone; and Keenan and Khiry piled on over 200 combined yards. Unfortunately, Steven Jackson was robbed at the goal line, Cecil Shorts' paper-mache hamstring sidelined once again, and Garrett Graham had the usage but also the dropsies. A respectable but cautious pat on the back to myself and Alex for our record last week. But this isn't about fantasy-prediction autofellatio, it's about helping you plug the holes in your team ship so it doesn't go Titanic on you. Hence, we soldier on through volume two of the Bye Week Blues.

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Week 4 Fantasy Report: Time Keeps On Slippin'

As I drove to the radio station I work for over the weekend, watching trees dot the skyline, it dawned to me that October has nearly arrived; the realization gave me pause. The seasons fly by every year, almost faster than the previous one, and this ride around is no different. Our long-form game of numbers and balls shaped like an egg has already hit its quarter-point, with four tireless weeks of injury checking, feed-watching, and losing sleep over minute roster changes behind us. We must relish the time we are given, as we enter what I consider the greatest time of year. And between this and other hobbies, work, school, and life's various toils, we should all set aside a bit of the day to just sit and watch the leaves fall.

Alright, now that I'm done gazing into my own navel, we can begin. First, to touch on some of last week's notes (make sure to read Alex's part 2/rebuttal piece to get the whole picture from last week)...

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